Chicago Bears @

Detroit Lions

Thu, Nov 28
9:30 AM Pacific
Rotation: 305
Odds: Detroit Lions +5.5, Total: 37

Game Analysis

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Lean – DETROIT (+5.5) over Chicago

Jeff Driskel is dealing with a sore hamstring and the Lions will start undrafted rookie David Blough. Driskel was adding 3.6 points per game with his legs this season so he would’ve been significantly less effective if the injury confined him to the pocket. Matt Stafford is 4 points better than Driskel, who is 2.5 points better than Blough (based on our algorithm for quarterbacks with no NFL history). Detroit’s offense will not be able to rely on the ground game to take pressure off the new quarterback because Chicago’s rush defense ranks 5th defending the run.

Mitch Trubisky was sacked 5 times against the Lions 3 week ago and now the Bears will be without starting right tackle Bobby Massie. Chicago’s offense is targeting running backs on 28.5% of passes (4th-most) and Detroit is the only team in the league allowing more than 8 yards per target to opposing running backs. Allen Robinson has 11 receptions on passes traveling 20+ yards through the air (3rd) but he will be limited by Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay. Still, the Bears have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and the Lions defense, while worse than average, has the edge.

There’s a lot of uncertainty around David Blough but this has the potential to be the worst quarterback matchup of the year. Trubisky will need to utilize Tarik Cohen catching passes out of the backfield. I do not have optimism about the Bears making the playoffs even if they knock off the Lions on Thursday. Chicago has a brutal last month of the season with games against Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, and Minnesota. Our model makes the Bears a 2.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 35.6 and the line move on this game due to Detroit’s quarterback situation has likely been too drastic. I’d prefer to go against the grain (and go with the model) and take the points with the Lions.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Lions


  • Pass Plays 38.1 38.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.1% 46.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.0% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 15.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.7% 34.6%
  • NYPP 5.1 5.9


  • Rush Plays 23.2 26.0
  • RB YPR 3.2 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 26.6% 23.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 40.6% 44.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 22.6% 32.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.6


  • All Snaps 61.3 64.5
  • Early Down Succ 46.0% 49.6%
  • Succ Rate 42.4% 45.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.4% 35.3%
  • Yards Per Play 4.4 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.8
  • Run Ratio 38.0% 40.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 30.5
  • Game Control 0.9 -0.9
  • Points 17.1 17.1
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