Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Chicago (-2.5) vs DENVER

Denver’s offense was terrible in week 1 and we now have them ranked 31st – only ahead of Miami. The Broncos need to let Joe Flacco throw the ball more often, as he was effective in gaining 7.3 yards per pass play against the Raiders. However, Flacco probably won’t have much time to look downfield against Chicago’s pass rush, especially with right tackle Ja’Waun James out and Khalil Mack likely to destroy his backup. Emmanuel Sanders did not line up in slot last week but I would be surprised if he didn’t on Sunday considering Flacco will need to get the ball out quickly and the Bears defense lost star nickelback Bryce Callahan to the Broncos this offseason.

I expect Vic Fangio to attack Mitch Trubisky similar to the Packers approach in week 1 when he was held to just 3 rushes for 11 yards and forced to use his arm to make plays. The injury to TE Trey Burton hurts Chicago and ultimately Matt Nagy could turn to his ground game in a battle against his former defensive coordinator.

Altitude is particularly difficult for opponents early in the year as teams adjust to the speed of regular season while still working on their conditioning. Denver is now 31-13-2 at home in the first two weeks of the season, including 20-4 against non-divisional opponents. The tired lungs notably affects defenses with the over in Denver now 14-8-1 in weeks 1 and 2 since 2000. Our model favors the Bears by 2.6 with a predicted total of 42.7 points without adjusting for the early season altitude. While the altitude does favor Denver the Bears apply to a 32-9-1 ATS week 2 situation. I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Broncos

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.5 43.5
Succ Pass Plays 37.4% 45.0%
Sack Rate 5.0% 9.1%
Int Rate 1.1% 1.0%
Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 15.6%
Big Pass Yards 33.7% 39.0%
NYPP 4.3 5.1

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 23.0
RB YPR 4.0 2.8
Stuff Rate 23.7% 30.7%
Succ Rush Plays 44.1% 36.4%
Big Rush Yards 23.5% 25.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 2.9

Game

All Snaps 60.5 66.5
Early Down Succ 44.7% 47.4%
Succ Rate 40.0% 41.7%
Big Yards Rate 36.9% 36.1%
Yards Per Play 4.4 4.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 29.3
Run Ratio 37.4% 35.1%
Starting Field Pos 21.6 27.7
Game Control -0.1 0.1

Points 9.5 12.0

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	3 – 10 L	-2.9	34.0% / 40.0%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	40.0% / 22.7%	26.7% / 36.4%	3.1 / 2.1	65 / 57	41.7% / 39.5%	35.4% / 33.3%	38.2% / 53.1%	3.9 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.1% / 38.6%	22.7 / 30.9
2	@DEN	16 – 14 W	2.6	40.7% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	4.4 / 5.4	48.3% / 50.0%	20.7% / 25.0%	5.3 / 3.8	56 / 76	47.7% / 55.2%	44.6% / 50.0%	35.5% / 19.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	51.8% / 31.6%	20.5 / 24.6

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@OAK	16 – 24 L	-9.5	50.0% / 65.4%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 10.0	52.2% / 46.4%	26.1% / 14.3%	4.1 / 3.5	57 / 54	52.3% / 51.3%	50.9% / 55.6%	58.1% / 40.3%	6.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.4% / 51.9%	21.8 / 29.0
2	CHI	14 – 16 L	-2.6	50.0% / 40.7%	3.8% / 0.0%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.4	50.0% / 48.3%	25.0% / 20.7%	3.8 / 5.3	76 / 56	55.2% / 47.7%	50.0% / 44.6%	19.1% / 35.5%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	31.6% / 51.8%	24.6 / 20.5

Chicago Bears @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Sep 15

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis