Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Chicago (+7.5) over CLEVELAND

Rookie QB Justin Fields played 42 snaps last week and was mostly unimpressive. Fields averaged only 2.7 yards per pass play and held onto the ball too long with an average time to throw of 3.37 seconds, which is 0.88 seconds slower than Andy Dalton’s average this season. Fields will look to get the quick passing attack going on Sunday as his offensive line is in trouble, particularly on the interior. C Sam Mustipher ranks 28th in pass blocking efficiency while guards Cody Whitehair and James Daniels have combined to allow 11 pressures. Browns’ interior defender Malik Jackson ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency and should have a productive afternoon. Fields had 10 carries last week and likely will need to use his scrambling ability again in this matchup.

Chicago’s 2nd-rated rush defense should slow down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I expect the Bears to have a limited pass rush due to Kevin Stefanski’s scheme. RG Wyatt Teller has conceded only 1 pressure this year and he should make it difficult for interior defender Akiem Hicks (9th in pass rushing efficiency). Baker Mayfield won’t have WR Jarvis Landry due to an MCL sprain, but WR Odell Beckham should make his debut this week.

Our model favors the Browns by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.2 points and the matchup favors the Bears along with a solid 60-23-6 ATS week 3 situation. Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +7.5 up to -115 odds.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Browns

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.0 30.5
Succ Pass Plays 40.9% 48.4%
Sack Rate 9.0% 7.7%
Int Rate 3.3% 5.0%
Deep Pass Rate 9.6% 16.5%
Big Pass Yards 9.1% 40.4%
NYPP 4.7 9.0

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 21.5
RB YPR 3.8 3.4
Stuff Rate 29.6% 24.9%
Succ Rush Plays 51.4% 43.9%
Big Rush Yards 43.0% 17.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.3

Game

All Snaps 65.0 52.0
Early Down Succ 50.5% 46.7%
Succ Rate 46.2% 46.4%
Big Yards Rate 23.3% 35.6%
Yards Per Play 4.5 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.6 30.8
Run Ratio 46.7% 41.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -2.2 2.2

Points 15.5 27.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	14 – 34 L	-10.9	55.8% / 55.6%	7.0% / 3.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.0 / 11.9	61.5% / 47.8%	26.9% / 34.8%	5.2 / 3.2	69 / 50	66.0% / 51.4%	58.0% / 52.0%	18.6% / 44.3%	5.1 / 7.9	1.4% / 0.0%	37.7% / 46.0%	0.0 / 0.0
2	CIN	17 – 20 L	6.6	25.9% / 41.2%	11.1% / 11.8%	4.2% / 10.0%	4.3 / 6.1	41.2% / 40.0%	32.4% / 15.0%	3.6 / 3.5	61 / 54	34.9% / 42.1%	34.4% / 40.7%	28.0% / 26.8%	3.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.9%	55.7% / 37.0%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@KC	29 – 33 L	5.3	60.0% / 60.5%	6.7% / 5.3%	3.6% / 0.0%	10.7 / 8.9	76.0% / 56.5%	8.0% / 21.7%	6.1 / 3.2	55 / 61	72.7% / 57.4%	67.3% / 59.0%	48.3% / 36.3%	8.6 / 6.7	1.8% / 0.0%	45.5% / 37.7%	0.0 / 0.0
2	HST	31 – 21 W	2.9	73.9% / 50.0%	8.7% / 3.3%	4.8% / 3.4%	9.3 / 7.6	50.0% / 39.3%	26.5% / 35.7%	4.6 / 2.9	57 / 58	63.8% / 41.9%	59.6% / 44.8%	39.6% / 40.8%	6.5 / 5.3	1.8% / 0.0%	59.6% / 48.3%	0.0 / 0.0

Chicago Bears @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Sep 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis