Game Analysis
Chicago (-10) vs BUFFALO
Somehow Nathan Peterman keeps getting opportunities as an NFL starting quarterback and he’ll be under center this week with both Josh Allen and Derek Anderson unavailable. Peterman has gained just 4.0 yards per pass play throughout his career (league-average is 6.6) and he’s the only quarterback with an interception rate above 10% going back to 1980 (min 75 attempts). The Bills have the NFL’s worst offense by more than 2 points and our metrics expect them to get 3.2 points worse with Peterman at the helm. Chicago’s defense ranks 2nd in our ratings and there’s a decent chance Buffalo becomes just the second team since 2010 to score single-digits in three consecutive games (Cowboys 2017).
The Bears have our 4th-ranked rushing offense, but they’re likely to take a step back with three-time Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long out for 6-8 weeks. Instead, Chicago should focus on catching passes out of the backfield where Tarik Cohen is gaining a league-best 3.34 yards per route run. Bills 20-year-old rookie Tremaine Edmunds is surrendering 1.72 yards per cover snap, which ranks 51st out of 52 qualifying linebackers, and the young player is likely to be exposed in coverage across from Cohen.
Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack are questionable for the Bears, but even if they don’t play, Chicago should have no trouble maintaining their lead atop the NFC North facing perhaps the worst quarterback of the modern era. Our model favors Chicago by 12.3 points with Peterman at quarterback for Buffalo, but the Bills apply to a 60-8-1 ATS contrary situation and a 53-14-2 ATS double-digit home dog situation. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
45.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
4.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.0%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.3%
43.7%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.1
22.6
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
16.9%
21.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.8%
41.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
23.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.6
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
51.8%
45.9%
-
Succ Rate
49.6%
44.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
38.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
28.8
-
Run Ratio
45.7%
37.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
26.9
-
Game Control
5.7
-5.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.0
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.7%
52.6%
-
Sack Rate
11.4%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
6.4%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.4%
13.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.2%
30.2%
-
NYPP
4.6
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
27.1
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
26.8%
30.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
40.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.4%
55.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
58.1
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
39.4%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
38.0%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.6
30.2
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
32.3
-
Game Control
-7.0
7.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@GB |
23 – 24 L |
9.5 |
35.9% /
43.9% |
10.3% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
4.0 /
7.3 |
59.3% /
27.8% |
18.5% /
16.7% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
66 /
59 |
48.9% /
40.0% |
45.5% /
39.0% |
38.1% /
59.5% |
4.5 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
40.9% /
30.5% |
25.7 /
30.7 |
| 2 |
SEA |
24 – 17 W |
7.4 |
52.8% /
43.6% |
5.6% /
15.4% |
5.9% /
3.0% |
5.1 /
5.2 |
48.3% /
45.5% |
13.8% /
13.6% |
3.0 /
3.4 |
65 /
61 |
55.1% /
44.9% |
50.8% /
44.3% |
6.3% /
23.2% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
36.1% |
33.6 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
16 – 14 W |
-7.2 |
42.1% /
40.0% |
7.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
11.5% |
5.1 /
5.6 |
54.8% /
33.3% |
22.6% /
27.8% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
69 /
48 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
47.8% /
37.5% |
37.7% /
58.8% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
2.1% |
44.9% /
37.5% |
27.8 /
32.8 |
| 4 |
TB |
48 – 10 W |
27.7 |
66.7% /
45.2% |
3.7% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
12.7 /
6.0 |
51.5% /
38.9% |
27.3% /
22.2% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
60 /
60 |
64.6% /
45.7% |
58.3% /
43.3% |
72.6% /
32.8% |
8.1 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.0% /
30.0% |
27.5 /
23.8 |
| 6 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
-0.3 |
54.5% /
48.8% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.2% /
4.7% |
9.2 /
8.8 |
43.8% /
58.1% |
9.4% /
9.7% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
65 /
74 |
48.0% /
53.4% |
49.2% /
52.7% |
60.7% /
48.2% |
7.2 /
7.3 |
3.1% /
1.4% |
49.2% /
41.9% |
25.3 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
NE |
31 – 38 L |
-3.8 |
43.1% /
62.2% |
3.9% /
2.7% |
4.1% /
2.8% |
6.3 /
7.4 |
52.0% /
63.0% |
12.0% /
22.2% |
5.4 /
4.0 |
76 /
64 |
44.1% /
66.0% |
46.1% /
62.5% |
44.6% /
29.7% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
32.9% /
42.2% |
32.9 /
25.6 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
24 – 10 W |
6.9 |
45.2% /
36.7% |
6.5% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
52.9% /
20.8% |
14.7% /
37.5% |
5.3 /
2.4 |
65 /
54 |
51.9% /
30.8% |
49.2% /
29.6% |
46.3% /
20.3% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
44.4% |
28.5 /
22.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% /
42.5% |
15.4% /
5.0% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
6.3 |
22.7% /
44.1% |
31.8% /
29.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
61 /
74 |
24.4% /
43.3% |
21.3% /
43.2% |
39.9% /
43.1% |
2.5 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.1% /
45.9% |
30.5 /
41.3 |
| 2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% /
65.5% |
13.2% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.3 |
54.5% /
33.3% |
31.8% /
40.7% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
60 /
56 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
43.3% /
50.0% |
59.0% /
44.0% |
4.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
48.2% |
26.7 /
36.5 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
12.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
42.1% /
16.7% |
23.7% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
63 /
65 |
42.9% /
48.0% |
41.3% /
44.6% |
42.1% /
3.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
60.3% /
9.2% |
40.2 /
17.7 |
| 4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% /
47.6% |
17.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
2.5% |
2.2 /
6.7 |
43.8% /
56.3% |
25.0% /
37.5% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
56 /
74 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
51.4% |
31.0% /
49.6% |
2.6 /
5.7 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
43.2% |
27.3 /
27.4 |
| 5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
63.6% /
81.3% |
9.1% /
12.5% |
10.0% /
7.1% |
7.2 /
7.6 |
46.5% /
56.0% |
20.9% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.0 |
54 /
41 |
43.8% /
51.2% |
50.0% /
65.9% |
18.8% /
29.0% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
4.9% |
79.6% /
61.0% |
34.8 /
30.2 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
29.0% /
27.3% |
6.5% /
21.2% |
6.9% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
40.7% /
36.0% |
22.2% /
28.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
58 /
58 |
32.6% /
34.9% |
34.5% /
31.0% |
46.3% /
34.1% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
46.6% /
43.1% |
28.2 /
36.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
5 – 37 L |
-16.0 |
39.4% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
43.9% |
31.8% /
14.6% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
55 /
64 |
48.9% /
53.5% |
43.6% /
48.4% |
39.9% /
53.2% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
64.1% |
22.8 /
36.3 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Buffalo Bills