Game Analysis
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1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA (pk) over Chicago
Lean – Over (44.5)
- Arizona’s yppp versus single-high safety coverages is 11% more than against two-high and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has a favorable matchup as Chicago’s defense has a 51% single-high rate (8th-highest).
- The Bears surrendered 10.3 yppp in the intermediate area of the field last week and Kyler Murray will feature tight end Trey McBride, whose 64% success rate ranks 3rd.
- Chicago edge defender Montez Sweat ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency but he might not be able to suit up this week and if he does, he would have a banged-up shin and be limited by RT Kelvin Beachum, who has conceded only 9 pressures (11th-fewest).
- The Cardinals are averaging 63% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage than man (2nd) and Murray has a favorable matchup against a Bears defense with an 81% zone coverage rate (7th-highest).
- Arizona WR Marvin Harrison had 6 catches for 111 yards last week with a career-high 32% of routes in the slot. Chicago starting nickelback Kyler Gordon is likely out with a hamstring injury and Harrison will line up across from backup Josh Blackwell on the inside. Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson is surrendering a league-high 1.77 yards per cover snap and will struggle with Harrison when he is lined up outside.
- Chicago starting left tackle Braxton Jones is likely sidelined and LG Teven Jenkins ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency but he is banged up. Matt Eberflus said the Bears had to do a walk-through practice on Wednesday due to the offensive line depth and essentially ruled out backup LT Kiran Amegadjie as well.
- The Commanders preyed on Chicago’s patchwork offensive line with a season-high 42% blitz rate and Caleb Williams was pressured on 61% of his dropbacks last week. I expect the Cardinals to do the same as Arizona’s defense already has a 39% blitz rate (6th-highest).
- Cardinals CB Sean Murphy-Bunting will likely be back on the field this week and he is conceding 0.65 yards per cover snap fewer than rookie backup Max Melton. Arizona’s other first-round pick edge rusher Darius Robinson could see his first game action this week after being sidelined by a preseason calf injury
- Our model favors the Cardinals by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points, and the matchups favor Arizona.
Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better (Strong Opinion to -2).