Game Analysis

Lean – ARIZONA (+5.5) over Chicago

Lean – Over (38)

Arizona’s offense has been basically shutout twice to open the season, as their only score came in garbage time in their week 1 blowout loss, and now they face a Chicago defense that was pretty good last season when healthy, has added All-Pro Khalil Mack, and is 6th-rated through two weeks this season according to our numbers. However, most of the Cardinals’ troubles stem from falling behind early and becoming one-dimensional, which is less likely to happen versus a Bears offense averaging just 4.5 yards per play (29th). Arizona’s rushing success ranks 2nd in our metrics thus far, and it will be crucial for them to establish a ground game with David Johnson, who’s averaging only 11 carries per game. Otherwise, Khalil Mack and Chicago’s pass rush will make it difficult for Sam Bradford if they can just pin their ears back knowing a pass is coming.

Mitch Trubisky has struggled once the rehearsed scripted plays are exhausted, as he’s averaged 8.3 yards per pass play in the first quarter but just 3.4 yards per pass play in quarters 2-4, which is worst in the league. I don’t trust him to exploit a Cardinals pass defense surrendering 8.8 yards per play (31st). The Bears are also unlikely to find success in the ground game as Arizona’s defense is holding opponents to just 3.6 yards per rush (6th).

The summer line for this game was Cardinals -1 and the weekly look-ahead line was Bears -2.5.  In the end, this game comes down to the market over-adjusting to what we’ve seen in the first two weeks. We were low on Arizona coming into the season with a projection 0.8 wins below their market implied total and we have dropped their rating by 2.8-point after the first two weeks, our largest negative adjustment of any team. Chicago is now rated 1.4 points better than their preseason number, and yet we still see value on the pathetic looking Cardinals. I think 4.5 points is a fair number here and underdogs of 3 points or more after a shutout loss are 43-10-3 ATS since ’92 against non-division opponents not off a bye. Road favorites off a bye are good, which is why you have that exclusion, and division opponents are less likely to let down against a struggling team, which is why the trend only works against non-division opponents. That trend speaks to the nature of bettors overreacting to recent results and to the parity of talent in the NFL. Arizona may be one of the least talented teams in the league but they are good enough for me to lean their way this week. I’ll also lean over the total, as our model reveals a true total of 40.2 points and week 3 overs are 73-34-1 since 2000 when the total is 42 points or less, which speaks to the market overreacting to early season low-scoring teams.