Game Analysis
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1-Star Best Bet – *Carolina Team Total Over (20.5 -115)
Lean – CAROLINA (+9.5) over Washington
- Washington’s defense will be without edge defender Dorance Armstrong on Sunday as well as interior defender Jonathan Allen, who suffered a season-ending pectoral tear. Armstrong ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency and Allen has 4 quarterback hits (9th).
- Washington’s remaining best defensive lineman is DT Daron Payne, who has 19 pressures (7th). However, Payne will be shut down in this game by Panthers RG Robert Hunt, who ranks 8th in pass-blocking efficiency.
- Carolina WR Diontae Johnson’s 55 targets are more than twice that of any other Panthers receiver. He was listed as questionable due to ankle and rib injuries but Adam Schefter reported last night that Johnson is expected to play. I expect Andy Dalton to find Johnson downfield when he’s lined up across from CB Benjamin St-Juste, who is surrendering 1.73 yards per cover snap, which ranks 72nd out of 77 qualifying cornerbacks.
- Carolina’s defense is missing 5 starters from the week 1 depth chart, and this might be one of the worst defenses we’ve seen in recent NFL history. Usually, you’d expect a defense surrendering 33.8 points per game to regress but they already weren’t talented to begin with, starting the season rated in the market as the 31st defense.
- The Panthers only had 5 pressures last week in the first game without edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney against the Falcons and I doubt the current state of this defensive line can get any sacks on Jayden Daniels.
- Daniels is 10-for-10 on 4th conversions this season for +32.4 EPA. In other words, 36% of Washington’s expected points added this year have come on ten high leverage 4th downs. This is why we and the market do not expect the Commanders to continue scoring 29.7 points per game (2nd). However, the regression may not hit this week due to the state of Carolina’s defense.
- Washington’s offense has a league-high 54% no-huddle rate, and the next closest offense is Chicago at 27%. There should be plenty of snaps for both offenses in this game.
- Washington applies to a very negative 115-234-10 ATS situation, which is another indication that the Commanders are likely to regress on both sides of the ball.
- We’d favor the Commanders by 10.5 based purely on the metrics but the situation is strong enough that the true line is 7.8 points.
- The model predicted total is 55.9 points.
- We have value on the over and Carolina’s Team Total Over 20.5 (on the good side of a key number) is better value (by 2% ROI, even at -115) than the game over 51.5 (on the bad side of a key number).
- The Panthers have scored 24 or more in 2 of Andy Dalton’s 4 starts and 20 points in another and he’s played reasonably well. With Washington banged up on defense we feel the Panthers can get to 21 points and will still be trying to score late in game while behind (i.e we could get a garbage time TD).
Carolina’s Team Total Over 21 or less is a 1-Star Best Bet. Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game over 51.5 to 52.