Carolina Panthers @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Sep 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 263
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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TAMPA BAY (-8.5) vs Carolina

In general, I think the public is reading too much into Tampa Bay’s week 1 performance. The Buccaneers lost on the road almost solely due to turnovers, which is understandable given it was Tom Brady’s first game in Bruce Arians’ system. Brady’s average depth of target is 9.0 yards over the past decade, more than a full yard shorter than his Week 1 outing. Brady is averaging just 8 interceptions per year since 2010 and I believe the turnovers will not be a season-long issue.

Tampa Bay out-gained New Orleans by 0.7 yards per play and I expect the offense to look better this week versus a soft Panthers defense, even if Chris Godwin (concussion) is unable to suit up. Carolina’s defense is a team full of replacement-level players except for Kawann Short, who can easily be schemed out of the game with double teams on the inside as he was last week recording 0 pressures. The Panthers allowed 8.0 yards per pass play to Derek Carr last Sunday and I see no reason to believe Tom Brady won’t at least match that production on Sunday.

The Buccaneers had the 2nd-best rush defense in week 1, after finishing 5th a season ago, which means that Christian McCaffrey will struggle to get anything going on the ground and it will be up to Teddy Bridgewater to exploit Tampa Bay’s inexperienced secondary.

Bridgewater should have time in the pocket with RT Taylor Moton, who surrendered only 1 pressure last week and finished 12 in pass blocking efficiency last season, neutralizing Shaquil Barrett, who led the league in sacks last year and recorded 5 pressures in week 1. However, I have my doubts that Bridgewater will use that time to throw deep, as he isn’t known for his downfield passing (league-low 6.2 average intended air yards in 2019). There is also likely to be strong winds on Sunday that will further complicate the deep passing game.

Our model makes Tampa Bay an 8.4-point favorite (without Godwin) with a predicted total of 48.6 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers
CAR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.0 32.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 48.3%
  • Sack Rate 6.7% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 2.4% 1.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.4% 17.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 27.8% 45.4%
  • NYPP 7.3 7.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.0 26.5
  • RB YPR 3.8 5.0
  • Stuff Rate 14.6% 21.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 57.5% 61.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 24.1% 44.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.9




Game

  • All Snaps 68.0 59.0
  • Early Down Succ 52.6% 54.9%
  • Succ Rate 52.8% 54.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 27.2% 45.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.7
  • Run Ratio 40.0% 44.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.4 35.1
  • Game Control -7.4 7.4
 
  • Points 23.5 32.5
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