Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY GIANTS (+3) over Carolina

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule indicated that we’ll see a different look from Carolina’s offense as they plan on increasing the use of the ground game and I’m expecting the offense to score fewer points with this approach. The Panthers rush offense ranks below league average according to our metrics and backup RB Chuba Hubbard is avoiding only 0.09 tackles per carry while Christian McCaffrey (out with a strained hamstring) was averaging 0.19 avoided tackles per attempt.

Sam Darnold will be under pressure in the instances Carolina decides to pass as Giants interior defender Dexter Lawrence ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency while Panthers RG John Miller is surrendering 3.6 pressures per game and C Matt Paradis ranks last among 30 qualifying centers in pass blocking efficiency. James Bradberry has a 17% forced incompletion rate (9th) and the Pro Bowl cornerback will limit Carolina wide receiver DJ Moore, who is averaging 2.19 yards per route run (13th).

New York LT Andrew Thomas has been dealing with a lingering injury in his right foot and will be out until after the bye week. Thomas ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and is worth 0.7 points over backup tackle Matt Peart, who has surrendered 2 sacks in 104 pass blocking snaps. Daniel Jones should get the ball out quickly to Sterling Shepard, who is running 73% of his routes from the slot. Shepard is averaging 2.05 yards per route run (19th) and the Panthers are surrendering 1.47 yards per slot cover snap. It looks like CB Stephon Gilmore will make his debut for Carolina’s defense this week and he is worth about a point if he plays at his normal high level for his new team.

Our model favors the Panthers by 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 43.7 points. The matchups favor the Giants and I’ll lean with the G-Men at +3 or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Giants

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.00 0.00
Succ Pass Plays 43.3% 0.0%
Sack Rate 8.1% 0.0%
Int Rate 3.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 0.0%
Big Pass Yards 35.4% 0.0%
NYPP 6.06 0.00

Rush

Rush Plays 26.71 0.00
RB YPR 3.50 0.00
Stuff Rate 26.7% 0.0%
Succ Rush Plays 48.2% 0.0%
Big Rush Yards 39.5% 0.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.87 0.00

Game

All Snaps 67.71 0.00
Early Down Succ 48.7% 0.0%
Succ Rate 44.4% 0.0%
Big Yards Rate 36.5% 0.0%
Yards Per Play 5.15 0.00
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.53 0.00
Run Ratio 39.2% 0.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 2.18 -2.18

Points 20.86 20.86

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	19 – 14 W	6.88	47.2% / 37.2%	2.8% / 14.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	7.50 / 4.81	44.4% / 35.3%	29.6% / 11.8%	4.11 / 2.65	63 / 60	52.1% / 41.5%	46.0% / 36.7%	45.9% / 50.8%	6.05 / 4.20	1.6% / 0.0%	42.9% / 28.3%	0.00 / 0.00
2	NO	26 – 7 W	11.48	57.5% / 19.2%	5.0% / 15.4%	2.6% / 9.1%	7.35 / 3.08	33.3% / 35.3%	39.4% / 29.4%	2.70 / 2.82	73 / 43	44.8% / 32.1%	46.6% / 25.6%	25.1% / 39.0%	5.25 / 2.98	0.0% / 0.0%	45.2% / 39.5%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@HST	24 – 9 W	6.14	45.9% / 0.0%	8.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.84 / 0.00	48.5% / 0.0%	30.3% / 0.0%	3.55 / 0.00	70 / 0	50.0% / 0.0%	47.1% / 0.0%	48.9% / 0.0%	5.81 / 0.00	0.0% / 0.0%	47.1% / 0.0%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@DAL	28 – 36 L	-7.10	50.0% / 59.1%	11.4% / 0.0%	5.1% / 0.0%	6.05 / 8.55	62.5% / 55.9%	20.8% / 26.5%	4.71 / 6.76	68 / 56	61.2% / 60.9%	54.4% / 57.1%	42.0% / 55.5%	5.57 / 7.46	0.0% / 0.0%	35.3% / 60.7%	0.00 / 0.00
5	PHI	18 – 21 L	5.34	42.5% / 33.3%	7.5% / 5.1%	8.1% / 2.7%	3.95 / 4.67	36.7% / 59.1%	20.0% / 22.7%	3.63 / 4.14	70 / 61	41.8% / 45.7%	40.0% / 42.6%	30.1% / 40.5%	3.81 / 4.48	0.0% / 1.6%	42.9% / 36.1%	0.00 / 0.00
6	MIN	28 – 34 L	-3.18	28.9% / 54.2%	8.9% / 0.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	4.18 / 7.77	65.2% / 44.4%	17.4% / 27.8%	5.13 / 5.50	68 / 84	48.0% / 51.5%	41.2% / 50.0%	40.0% / 56.9%	4.50 / 6.80	2.9% / 1.2%	33.8% / 42.9%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@NYG	3 – 25 L	-4.34	31.1% / 38.9%	13.3% / 5.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	2.60 / 5.53	47.1% / 38.7%	29.4% / 38.7%	3.29 / 3.32	62 / 67	42.9% / 38.0%	35.5% / 38.8%	23.5% / 22.0%	2.79 / 4.51	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 46.3%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	13 – 27 L	-4.88	48.7% / 52.6%	5.1% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.51 / 6.71	45.0% / 39.3%	20.0% / 21.4%	3.00 / 5.89	59 / 66	47.7% / 45.7%	47.5% / 47.0%	30.3% / 34.7%	5.32 / 6.36	1.7% / 1.5%	33.9% / 42.4%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@WAS	29 – 30 L	2.22	44.4% / 53.2%	11.1% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.2%	6.33 / 6.81	46.4% / 63.6%	28.6% / 18.2%	5.82 / 3.95	64 / 69	50.0% / 61.1%	45.3% / 56.5%	45.6% / 32.4%	6.11 / 5.90	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 31.9%	0.00 / 0.00
3	ATL	14 – 17 L	2.05	51.4% / 41.0%	5.4% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.65 / 5.82	55.6% / 30.0%	29.6% / 15.0%	3.70 / 3.45	64 / 59	56.3% / 38.6%	53.1% / 37.3%	20.8% / 42.0%	5.41 / 5.02	1.6% / 1.7%	42.2% / 33.9%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@NO	27 – 21 W	-1.41	57.5% / 57.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.5% / 3.8%	10.05 / 9.04	35.0% / 61.5%	15.0% / 2.6%	4.15 / 4.36	60 / 65	53.1% / 60.8%	50.0% / 60.0%	54.0% / 22.0%	8.08 / 6.23	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 60.0%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@DAL	20 – 44 L	-8.12	48.7% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.7%	5.1% / 3.0%	7.54 / 8.97	32.0% / 48.7%	28.0% / 15.4%	2.92 / 5.15	64 / 74	43.8% / 48.2%	42.2% / 48.6%	38.4% / 52.6%	5.73 / 6.96	0.0% / 1.4%	39.1% / 52.7%	0.00 / 0.00
6	LA	11 – 38 L	-15.52	36.4% / 62.5%	7.3% / 6.3%	5.9% / 6.7%	3.65 / 7.31	38.9% / 52.9%	27.8% / 20.6%	3.33 / 3.85	73 / 66	41.2% / 64.2%	37.0% / 57.6%	4.6% / 34.8%	3.58 / 5.53	1.4% / 0.0%	24.7% / 51.5%	0.00 / 0.00
7	CAR	25 – 3 W	4.34	38.9% / 31.1%	5.6% / 13.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.53 / 2.60	38.7% / 47.1%	38.7% / 29.4%	3.32 / 3.29	67 / 62	38.0% / 42.9%	38.8% / 35.5%	22.0% / 23.5%	4.51 / 2.79	0.0% / 0.0%	46.3% / 27.4%	0.00 / 0.00

Carolina Panthers @

New York Giants

Sun, Oct 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis