Game Analysis

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Carolina

• Carolina’s whole offseason was about seeing what they have in Bryce Young after a disastrous rookie season. A turnaround would not be unprecedented as we saw Jared Goff go from 3.8 yppp to 7.2 yppp in year 2. I don’t think new head coach Dave Canales is nearly on the same level as Sean McVay schematically though. Peyton Manning was also terrible in his first season and ended up in the Hall of Fame, so I don’t judge bad rookie season’s too harshly.
• The Panthers used their first-round pick on WR Xavier Legette and brought in WR Diontae Johnson, who rated 12th in ESPN Open Score based on the tracking data.
• Carolina’s interior offensive line was responsible for a league-high 64% of the pressures in 2023 so they replaced both guards – bringing in Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, who conceded just 2 pressures on 89 true sets last season and finished top 10 in run blocking grade by PFF. Those two will stabilize the pocket for Young.
• The New Orleans defense adds Chase Young, who didn’t really live up to the billing after getting traded to the 49ers in the middle of last season but ultimately finished 18th in pass rushing efficiency. He’ll take some of that burden away from Cam Jordan going into his age 35 season.
• The Saints also have LB Demario Davis going into his age 35 season. He’s been All-Pro each of the last 5 seasons but might fall off a cliff in 2024.
• The best news for Dennis Allen’s defense is they should have a healthy Marshon Lattimore in the mix. The four-time Pro Bowler has only played 17 games in the last two seasons and he’s one of the best man-cover corners in the NFL when on the field.
• The Saints made a bunch of all-in moves these last few seasons since Drew Brees retired to try to be competitive in a weak division and three years later they have zero NFC South titles to show for it. I don’t even think Saints fans think you’re going anywhere with Derek Carr at quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line.
• New Orleans’ offensive line ranks worst in the NFL by our metrics after the retirement of RT Ryan Ramczyk, who ranked 25th in pass blocking efficiency last year. It’s bleak outside of center Erik McCoy unless first round pick Taliese Fuaga or former first round pick looking like a bust Trevor Penning hit in a big way.
• The most notable changes of the offseason on Carolina’s defense were going from top pass rusher and top linebacker of Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu to Jadeveon Clowney and Joey Jewell, with both of those clear downgrades in my eyes. Clowney benefited tremendously from Mike MacDonald’s scheme last year in Baltimore but the three previous seasons he averaged only 37 pressures per year.
• Our model favors the Saints by 3.6 points with a predicted total of 42.1 points.