Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

· Sam Darnold struggles to diagnose the blitz but is alright versus a standard pass rush. Darnold is in the group of nine qualifying quarterbacks with a first down rate higher against a standard pass rush than versus a blitz. There are 36 qualifying quarterbacks with a higher first down rate against the blitz.

· New Orleans only has a 16% blitz rate (27th) and head coach Dennis Allen won’t challenge Darnold much with extra pass rushers.

· The Saints have an 8.1% sack rate (4th) but the Panthers ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Dennis Allen’s defense is trending up from a personal standpoint in the secondary though. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore hadn’t played in 10 weeks prior to last week’s contest, but he was back in the last game when New Orleans restricted Philadelphia to only 10 points. Lattimore had a pick-six and conceded only five receptions for 44 yards from 8 targets into his coverage.

· Panthers’ wide receiver DJ Moore caught half of his 6 targets with at least 10 air yards last week, but I expect him to be contained downfield by Lattimore and the return of starting Saints safety Marcus Maye, who missed the last two games.

· Buccaneers’ WR Mike Evans had 3 deep receptions last week on Carolina’s secondary missing top CB Jaycee Horn, who is out again and ranks 21st in coverage grade by PFF.  Chris Olave has 24 targets with 20 air yards or more this year (10th) and Andy Dalton will be looking for the rookie wide receiver deep against backup Panthers cornerbacks.

· New Orleans is missing two starters on the interior offensive line, but it looks like the Panthers will be without interior defender Matt Ioannidis, who has 35 pressures (18th).

· Carolina edge defender Brian Burns has 67 pressures (6th) and takes 69% of his pass rushing snaps across from left tackles, but the Panthers could move him to the other side as Saints right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is banged-up. Ramczyk left last week’s game in the first half with a hip injury.

· Alvin Kamara is gaining 1.71 yards per route run (2nd) but he won’t have much room in the receiving game as Carolina’s defense is conceding only 4.7 yards per target to opposing running backs (3rd).

· Our model makes New Orleans a 3.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.9 points, but I’ll lean with Carolina based on an 89-42-2 ATS late-season situation.