Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Carolina

Carolina’s defense has been terrible defending running backs after losing 5-time All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly to retirement this offseason and this is setting up to be a huge game for the Saints’ Alvin Kamara. Carolina’s rush defense ranks 31st and there will be wide open holes for Kamara on the ground and the Saints’ 6th-rated rushing offense. Kamara also leading all RBs with 2.99 yards per route run and the Panthers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.

There have been a couple of notable misses and it certainly doesn’t look as easy as it used to, but the talk about Drew Brees’ deep passing inaccuracy is mostly overblown. Brees ranks second in accuracy when targeting open or wide-open receivers at least 10 yards downfield this season but All-Pro WR Michael Thomas is out again this week.

Linebackers Alex Anzalone and Demario Davis have been excellent in coverage this season and will make it very difficult for Mike Davis to catch passes out of the backfield. New Orleans’ biggest defensive weakness this season has been stopping tight ends but the Panthers TEs have combined for just 10 catches and 74 yards this season. The Saints rank 4th in pressure rate and I expect it will be a difficult day for Teddy Bridgewater to get comfortable in the pocket.

Our model favors the Saints by 9.6 points, with a predicted total of 50.2 points, with Thomas out for the Saints.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Saints

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.3 38.7
Succ Pass Plays 50.7% 49.9%
Sack Rate 6.7% 1.3%
Int Rate 1.6% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 19.7% 16.1%
Big Pass Yards 32.0% 37.7%
NYPP 7.3 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 25.3
RB YPR 3.7 5.1
Stuff Rate 22.4% 20.3%
Succ Rush Plays 49.4% 61.5%
Big Rush Yards 31.7% 43.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.0

Game

All Snaps 62.3 64.0
Early Down Succ 52.2% 54.4%
Succ Rate 50.3% 54.5%
Big Yards Rate 32.2% 39.2%
Yards Per Play 6.0 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 27.5
Run Ratio 40.4% 40.2%
Starting Field Pos 30.2 31.6
Game Control -2.9 2.9

Points 22.7 27.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LV	30 – 34 L	-2.6	45.7% / 56.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 8.0	56.7% / 64.5%	16.7% / 16.1%	4.3 / 4.3	65 / 61	50.0% / 62.0%	50.8% / 60.7%	29.9% / 37.1%	6.0 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 50.8%	26.4 / 32.9
2	@TB	17 – 31 L	-12.1	53.2% / 40.0%	10.6% / 0.0%	4.8% / 2.9%	7.2 / 6.2	58.3% / 59.1%	12.5% / 27.3%	3.6 / 5.5	71 / 57	55.2% / 47.8%	54.9% / 47.4%	24.6% / 53.1%	6.0 / 5.9	2.8% / 1.8%	33.8% / 38.6%	26.3 / 37.4
3	@LAC	21 – 16 W	6.1	53.3% / 52.9%	6.7% / 3.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.4 / 6.3	33.3% / 60.9%	38.1% / 17.4%	3.9 / 5.1	51 / 74	51.3% / 53.4%	45.1% / 55.4%	42.1% / 27.5%	5.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 4.1%	41.2% / 31.1%	37.8 / 24.6

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TB	34 – 23 W	6.1	40.6% / 46.2%	3.1% / 7.7%	0.0% / 5.6%	5.9 / 5.7	44.1% / 50.0%	32.4% / 23.1%	2.4 / 3.3	66 / 65	46.9% / 49.0%	42.4% / 47.7%	35.8% / 39.0%	4.1 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.5%	51.5% / 40.0%	41.8 / 18.1
2	@LV	24 – 34 L	-0.3	55.3% / 58.5%	0.0% / 7.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.3	73.7% / 40.0%	10.5% / 40.0%	5.9 / 3.3	57 / 76	60.9% / 45.6%	61.4% / 50.0%	30.4% / 35.2%	7.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.3%	33.3% / 46.1%	26.6 / 26.9
3	GB	30 – 37 L	-1.6	50.0% / 54.5%	5.3% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.2 / 8.2	50.0% / 50.0%	15.0% / 26.9%	6.1 / 3.8	58 / 59	51.1% / 55.6%	50.0% / 52.5%	33.2% / 50.9%	6.8 / 6.3	1.7% / 0.0%	34.5% / 44.1%	28.9 / 33.9

Carolina Panthers @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Oct 25

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis