Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) vs Carolina

The Saints are slightly above the league average offensively at 5.8 yards per play, but we have their offense ranked 5th with Drew Brees back under center and playing well. New Orleans is the only team targeting running backs on more than 30% of passes but Luke Kuechly may limit Alvin Kamara in this matchup. Kamara is gaining only 5.4 yards per target versus the Panthers since entering the league, which is nearly 2 yards per target below his career-average. Still, Kamara leads all running backs, with at least 100 carries, forcing 0.32 missed tackles per rush and he should have success on the ground versus Carolina’s 30th-rated rush defense.

The Saints are allowing a league-low 4.3 yards per target to opposing running backs thanks in large part to the efforts of linebacker Demario Davis, who is surrendering just 0.80 yards per cover snap (8th), and I expect Christian McCaffrey to limited catching passes out of the backfield. DJ Moore is gaining 1.98 yards per route run (15th) and has seen his target share spike in recent weeks. Saints top cornerback Marshon Lattimore is worth 0.8 points by our metrics and is likely to be unavailable again providing a favorable matchup for Moore. Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan are both among the top 15 edge defenders in pass rushing efficiency but face differing prospects on Sunday. Rookie left tackle Greg Little has been terrible conceding 15 pressures in only 104 pass blocking snaps while right tackle Taylor Moton ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency.

We should get a heavy dose of Saints’ star receiver Michael Thomas with Alvin Kamara struggling to do much out of the backfield against Luke Kuechly. Similarly, I expect Kyle Allen to rely on top wide receiver DJ Moore with Christian McCaffrey neutralized in the receiving game. Our model makes New Orleans a 9.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.1 points. The model sees value on the over but I’m going to pass on the over due to a 745-536-16 Under situation that is an even better 137-62-2 Under in recent years. I’ll pass this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Saints

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.8 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 45.1% 44.8%
Sack Rate 8.3% 9.6%
Int Rate 2.4% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 19.9%
Big Pass Yards 35.3% 39.3%
NYPP 5.5 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 24.7 26.4
RB YPR 5.3 4.5
Stuff Rate 23.1% 21.0%
Succ Rush Plays 43.9% 51.3%
Big Rush Yards 46.0% 50.1%
Yards Per Rush 5.1 4.8

Game

All Snaps 65.5 66.4
Early Down Succ 47.6% 48.7%
Succ Rate 43.9% 46.8%
Big Yards Rate 41.7% 47.8%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 28.5
Run Ratio 38.1% 40.4%
Starting Field Pos 30.9 29.3
Game Control -1.5 1.5

Points 22.8 25.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	27 – 30 L	-6.7	46.3% / 47.5%	7.3% / 2.5%	2.6% / 2.6%	5.3 / 4.6	56.5% / 59.4%	17.4% / 21.9%	5.5 / 5.2	64 / 72	51.9% / 54.7%	50.0% / 52.8%	24.2% / 43.0%	5.4 / 4.8	3.1% / 0.0%	35.9% / 44.4%	34.2 / 36.8
2	TB	14 – 20 L	-1.4	40.7% / 39.3%	5.6% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.8	26.3% / 35.5%	57.9% / 25.8%	2.1 / 3.2	73 / 59	42.9% / 43.5%	37.0% / 37.3%	43.2% / 63.0%	4.8 / 4.9	1.4% / 0.0%	26.0% / 52.5%	27.6 / 26.5
3	@ARI	38 – 20 W	4.1	60.7% / 35.3%	7.1% / 15.7%	0.0% / 4.7%	8.6 / 2.5	38.7% / 68.2%	16.1% / 18.2%	5.6 / 5.5	59 / 73	53.2% / 41.8%	49.2% / 45.2%	46.7% / 35.1%	7.0 / 3.4	1.7% / 0.0%	52.5% / 30.1%	36.2 / 22.5
4	@HOU	16 – 10 W	2.3	51.4% / 40.0%	8.1% / 15.0%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.5 / 3.2	35.7% / 68.2%	25.0% / 18.2%	3.4 / 6.2	65 / 62	43.1% / 54.0%	44.6% / 50.0%	28.3% / 36.0%	4.6 / 4.3	4.6% / 1.6%	43.1% / 35.5%	29.9 / 29.6
5	JAC	34 – 27 W	5.8	44.1% / 52.2%	8.8% / 4.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.8	55.6% / 45.2%	18.5% / 25.8%	10.6 / 4.8	61 / 77	54.2% / 50.8%	49.2% / 49.4%	63.8% / 57.8%	7.3 / 6.6	0.0% / 3.9%	44.3% / 40.3%	28.8 / 22.9
6	@TB	37 – 26 W	11.3	44.1% / 42.6%	5.9% / 11.5%	0.0% / 9.3%	6.1 / 6.0	27.6% / 42.9%	37.9% / 7.1%	2.0 / 3.0	63 / 75	41.3% / 44.8%	36.5% / 42.7%	45.5% / 38.3%	4.3 / 5.4	1.6% / 2.7%	46.0% / 18.7%	40.6 / 26.6
8	@SF	13 – 51 L	-19.5	31.8% / 52.0%	15.9% / 12.0%	8.1% / 4.5%	2.3 / 6.2	47.4% / 36.8%	21.1% / 23.7%	6.8 / 6.1	63 / 63	43.8% / 43.1%	36.5% / 42.9%	52.6% / 59.8%	3.7 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	30.2% / 60.3%	25.4 / 45.6
9	TEN	30 – 20 W	9.2	45.7% / 48.8%	8.6% / 9.3%	3.1% / 5.1%	6.1 / 7.2	45.5% / 47.6%	15.2% / 23.8%	4.7 / 5.8	68 / 64	48.0% / 50.9%	45.6% / 48.4%	50.3% / 44.5%	5.4 / 6.7	0.0% / 1.6%	48.5% / 32.8%	39.1 / 21.6
10	@GB	16 – 24 L	-4.9	45.7% / 38.7%	6.5% / 6.5%	2.3% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.3	52.2% / 70.4%	8.7% / 18.5%	5.2 / 6.0	69 / 58	48.3% / 55.1%	47.8% / 53.4%	28.7% / 56.2%	5.8 / 6.7	1.4% / 0.0%	33.3% / 46.6%	25.0 / 25.6
11	ATL	3 – 29 L	-15.6	40.0% / 51.4%	9.1% / 8.6%	8.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 8.4	53.3% / 38.5%	13.3% / 26.9%	5.1 / 2.1	70 / 61	49.0% / 47.7%	42.9% / 45.9%	34.0% / 44.4%	5.0 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	21.4% / 42.6%	22.7 / 35.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	30 – 28 W	-2.7	59.1% / 38.9%	2.3% / 16.7%	2.3% / 3.3%	8.2 / 6.5	52.4% / 60.9%	9.5% / 30.4%	7.0 / 7.8	65 / 59	57.7% / 44.4%	56.9% / 47.5%	45.5% / 68.4%	7.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 39.0%	26.4 / 17.9
2	@LA	9 – 27 L	-5.8	37.8% / 41.9%	5.4% / 9.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.1 / 8.5	50.0% / 50.0%	25.0% / 20.0%	2.9 / 3.8	57 / 61	46.5% / 50.0%	42.1% / 45.9%	16.4% / 51.3%	4.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	35.1% / 49.2%	29.8 / 28.8
3	@SEA	33 – 27 W	10.4	55.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 8.1	47.8% / 42.3%	26.1% / 26.9%	3.8 / 4.2	50 / 76	57.9% / 52.6%	52.0% / 47.4%	21.1% / 56.7%	5.3 / 6.8	2.0% / 1.3%	46.0% / 34.2%	28.9 / 23.5
4	DAL	12 – 10 W	1.2	42.9% / 44.1%	14.3% / 2.9%	3.3% / 3.0%	4.3 / 6.2	59.3% / 45.0%	18.5% / 15.0%	4.3 / 2.3	62 / 54	52.1% / 43.9%	50.0% / 44.4%	34.6% / 26.1%	4.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.7%	43.5% / 37.0%	33.3 / 23.1
5	TB	31 – 24 W	6.3	55.6% / 39.4%	0.0% / 18.2%	2.8% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.8	29.0% / 50.0%	19.4% / 13.6%	3.6 / 4.3	67 / 55	40.8% / 46.5%	43.3% / 43.6%	42.5% / 43.7%	6.8 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.3% / 40.0%	27.0 / 30.4
6	@JAC	13 – 6 W	2.4	48.7% / 38.7%	7.7% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	5.7 / 4.9	65.4% / 25.0%	19.2% / 16.7%	4.0 / 3.1	65 / 55	62.0% / 35.0%	55.4% / 32.7%	36.5% / 35.8%	5.0 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 43.6%	32.1 / 18.1
7	@CHI	36 – 25 W	8.2	48.7% / 44.6%	2.6% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 4.2	54.3% / 28.6%	14.3% / 28.6%	4.3 / 2.4	74 / 63	54.4% / 49.0%	51.4% / 42.9%	42.9% / 11.1%	5.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.2%	47.3% / 11.1%	39.5 / 26.1
8	ARI	31 – 9 W	6.3	60.5% / 36.8%	0.0% / 10.5%	2.3% / 0.0%	8.7 / 5.2	44.8% / 36.4%	17.2% / 45.5%	4.7 / 3.6	72 / 49	54.2% / 45.7%	54.2% / 36.7%	45.7% / 37.1%	7.1 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 22.4%	31.2 / 26.1
10	ATL	9 – 26 L	-6.7	46.2% / 33.3%	11.5% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.0 / 4.8	72.7% / 44.1%	9.1% / 23.5%	4.7 / 4.2	63 / 70	63.0% / 37.0%	50.8% / 38.6%	10.6% / 38.5%	4.9 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	17.5% / 48.6%	26.6 / 36.9
11	@TB	34 – 17 W	10.1	55.6% / 43.4%	2.8% / 3.8%	0.0% / 7.8%	6.1 / 5.6	67.9% / 50.0%	7.1% / 50.0%	3.9 / 4.5	64 / 61	64.6% / 46.8%	60.9% / 44.3%	33.2% / 50.9%	5.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 13.1%	33.2 / 23.5

Carolina Panthers @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Nov 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis