Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Carolina (-2) vs MIAMI

Lean – Under 42

This game will feature two of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL as the Dolphins have a league-leading 40% blitz rate and Carolina’s blitz rate is 32% (6th). I expect Cam Newton and Tua Tagovailoa to handle the blitzes differently.

Miami’s offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and the Panthers have a 29.4% pressure rate (2nd). Tagovailoa will not have any time in the pocket and hasn’t done well when the defense sends five or more pass rushers. Tagovailoa is averaging 5.2 yards per attempt versus the blitz compared to 7.9 yards per attempt when not blitzed.

Chrstian McCaffrey injured his hamstring in the second quarter of week 3, then missed four games, but he has been back on the field the last three weeks. McCaffrey has 21 receptions during the previous three games and is now averaging 2.98 yards per route run. Cam Newton will be able to find McCaffrey sneaking out of the backfield when Brian Flores’s defense decides to blitz.

Our model favors the Dolphins by 0.6 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points. The matchups do favor Carolina and the under.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Dolphins

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.00 32.18
Succ Pass Plays 42.8% 40.1%
Sack Rate 6.4% 8.5%
Int Rate 3.1% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 16.4% 17.4%
Big Pass Yards 32.2% 36.1%
NYPP 5.49 5.41

Rush

Rush Plays 28.64 26.64
RB YPR 3.70 4.09
Stuff Rate 24.8% 28.0%
Succ Rush Plays 50.2% 45.7%
Big Rush Yards 39.7% 50.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.03 4.25

Game

All Snaps 65.64 58.82
Early Down Succ 49.5% 46.3%
Succ Rate 46.0% 42.7%
Big Yards Rate 34.8% 41.3%
Yards Per Play 4.86 4.89
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.17 29.50
Run Ratio 43.6% 45.3%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 2.41 -2.41

Points 20.55 20.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	19 – 14 W	6.88	47.2% / 37.2%	2.8% / 14.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	7.50 / 4.81	44.4% / 35.3%	29.6% / 11.8%	4.11 / 2.65	63 / 60	52.1% / 41.5%	46.0% / 36.7%	45.9% / 50.8%	6.05 / 4.20	1.6% / 0.0%	42.9% / 28.3%	36.75 / 23.00
2	NO	26 – 7 W	11.48	57.5% / 19.2%	5.0% / 15.4%	2.6% / 9.1%	7.35 / 3.08	33.3% / 35.3%	39.4% / 29.4%	2.70 / 2.82	73 / 43	44.8% / 32.1%	46.6% / 25.6%	25.1% / 39.0%	5.25 / 2.98	0.0% / 0.0%	45.2% / 39.5%	29.92 / 33.25
3	@HST	24 – 9 W	6.14	45.9% / 40.6%	8.1% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.84 / 4.72	48.5% / 35.3%	30.3% / 29.4%	3.55 / 2.47	70 / 49	50.0% / 47.4%	47.1% / 38.8%	48.9% / 14.3%	5.81 / 3.94	0.0% / 0.0%	47.1% / 34.7%	24.80 / 26.22
4	@DAL	28 – 36 L	-7.10	50.0% / 59.1%	11.4% / 0.0%	5.1% / 0.0%	6.05 / 8.55	62.5% / 55.9%	20.8% / 26.5%	4.71 / 6.76	68 / 56	61.2% / 60.9%	54.4% / 57.1%	42.0% / 55.5%	5.57 / 7.46	0.0% / 0.0%	35.3% / 60.7%	21.45 / 35.73
5	PHI	18 – 21 L	5.34	42.5% / 33.3%	7.5% / 5.1%	8.1% / 2.7%	3.95 / 4.67	36.7% / 59.1%	20.0% / 22.7%	3.63 / 4.14	70 / 61	41.8% / 45.7%	40.0% / 42.6%	30.1% / 40.5%	3.81 / 4.48	0.0% / 1.6%	42.9% / 36.1%	32.57 / 34.67
6	MIN	28 – 34 L	-3.18	28.9% / 54.2%	8.9% / 0.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	4.18 / 7.77	65.2% / 44.4%	17.4% / 27.8%	5.13 / 5.50	68 / 84	48.0% / 51.5%	41.2% / 50.0%	40.0% / 56.9%	4.50 / 6.80	2.9% / 1.2%	33.8% / 42.9%	29.93 / 31.31
7	@NYG	3 – 25 L	-4.34	31.1% / 38.9%	13.3% / 5.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	2.60 / 5.53	47.1% / 38.7%	29.4% / 38.7%	3.29 / 3.32	62 / 67	42.9% / 38.0%	35.5% / 38.8%	23.5% / 22.0%	2.79 / 4.51	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 46.3%	22.00 / 35.77
8	@ATL	19 – 13 W	-0.36	40.0% / 43.3%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 7.4%	5.16 / 4.37	59.6% / 45.0%	17.0% / 25.0%	4.32 / 4.10	72 / 50	50.9% / 47.4%	52.8% / 44.0%	26.5% / 14.0%	4.61 / 4.26	1.4% / 0.0%	65.3% / 40.0%	27.45 / 31.10
9	NE	6 – 24 L	-7.64	32.4% / 35.0%	2.9% / 10.0%	9.1% / 5.6%	4.76 / 6.10	39.1% / 46.2%	17.4% / 23.1%	3.39 / 3.87	57 / 59	38.6% / 41.9%	35.1% / 42.4%	29.6% / 49.7%	4.21 / 4.63	0.0% / 1.7%	40.4% / 66.1%	30.82 / 35.10
10	@ARZ	34 – 10 W	19.17	45.5% / 27.3%	0.0% / 12.1%	3.0% / 3.4%	5.30 / 3.15	56.8% / 45.0%	27.0% / 45.0%	4.49 / 3.25	70 / 53	52.7% / 40.0%	51.4% / 34.0%	32.8% / 30.3%	4.87 / 3.19	1.4% / 1.9%	52.9% / 37.7%	39.25 / 28.50
11	WAS	21 – 27 L	0.07	53.6% / 52.0%	3.6% / 12.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.64 / 7.16	57.1% / 50.0%	23.8% / 27.5%	5.29 / 4.75	49 / 65	64.9% / 53.2%	55.1% / 50.8%	25.3% / 43.4%	6.06 / 5.68	0.0% / 1.5%	42.9% / 61.5%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	17 – 16 W	3.18	51.7% / 56.4%	6.9% / 0.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	6.38 / 7.21	56.5% / 56.7%	30.4% / 13.3%	3.22 / 4.17	52 / 69	58.5% / 52.8%	53.8% / 56.5%	43.1% / 36.9%	4.98 / 5.88	0.0% / 2.9%	44.2% / 43.5%	25.11 / 27.63
2	BUF	0 – 35 L	-18.46	36.0% / 38.2%	12.0% / 2.9%	2.3% / 3.0%	2.90 / 5.03	25.0% / 43.3%	35.0% / 26.7%	3.55 / 4.77	70 / 64	33.3% / 36.0%	32.9% / 40.6%	11.9% / 52.5%	3.09 / 4.91	2.9% / 1.6%	28.6% / 46.9%	33.58 / 31.77
3	@LV	28 – 31 L	0.60	43.1% / 45.7%	3.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	3.86 / 7.76	44.4% / 48.6%	22.2% / 22.9%	4.93 / 4.00	78 / 81	45.5% / 46.2%	43.6% / 46.9%	31.3% / 54.8%	4.23 / 6.14	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 43.2%	26.91 / 24.54
4	IND	17 – 27 L	-4.25	51.5% / 35.3%	9.1% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.09 / 6.18	50.0% / 42.4%	31.3% / 39.4%	2.19 / 4.21	49 / 67	58.8% / 37.3%	51.0% / 38.8%	47.4% / 56.1%	4.14 / 5.21	4.1% / 1.5%	32.7% / 49.3%	31.50 / 32.40
5	@TB	17 – 45 L	-9.98	54.8% / 68.1%	7.1% / 4.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.24 / 9.30	44.4% / 64.0%	22.2% / 24.0%	4.33 / 4.84	51 / 72	59.5% / 66.7%	52.9% / 66.7%	50.0% / 39.6%	5.90 / 7.75	2.0% / 0.0%	17.6% / 34.7%	23.67 / 29.30
6	@JAX	20 – 23 L	1.94	50.0% / 51.2%	0.0% / 4.7%	2.1% / 0.0%	7.38 / 7.26	40.0% / 31.6%	20.0% / 21.1%	3.85 / 4.42	68 / 62	44.9% / 51.1%	47.1% / 45.2%	40.6% / 44.2%	6.34 / 6.39	0.0% / 1.6%	29.4% / 30.6%	25.91 / 29.73
7	ATL	28 – 30 L	-2.83	58.5% / 51.2%	2.4% / 2.4%	5.0% / 2.5%	6.85 / 7.93	51.7% / 36.4%	10.3% / 13.6%	4.55 / 3.27	70 / 63	55.2% / 46.9%	55.7% / 46.0%	12.5% / 52.0%	5.90 / 6.30	0.0% / 1.6%	41.4% / 34.9%	31.90 / 29.18
8	@BUF	11 – 26 L	-3.32	39.0% / 46.5%	4.9% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.73 / 5.79	43.5% / 34.8%	26.1% / 39.1%	2.96 / 4.43	64 / 66	44.7% / 42.3%	40.6% / 42.4%	35.5% / 28.2%	4.09 / 5.32	1.6% / 0.0%	35.9% / 34.8%	28.27 / 30.00
9	HST	17 – 9 W	6.62	48.9% / 40.8%	8.5% / 10.2%	4.7% / 6.8%	4.57 / 4.06	28.0% / 33.3%	44.0% / 16.7%	1.88 / 4.06	72 / 67	40.4% / 43.2%	41.7% / 38.8%	7.2% / 23.0%	3.64 / 4.06	2.8% / 3.0%	34.7% / 26.9%	31.75 / 31.50
10	BLT	22 – 10 W	2.16	37.5% / 40.4%	10.0% / 8.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.25 / 4.47	40.9% / 47.8%	36.4% / 34.8%	2.73 / 4.09	62 / 70	44.7% / 51.9%	38.7% / 42.9%	58.8% / 31.0%	5.65 / 4.34	0.0% / 1.4%	35.5% / 32.9%	24.92 / 25.36
11	@NYJ	24 – 17 W	2.71	61.8% / 53.7%	0.0% / 4.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.03 / 6.78	39.4% / 61.1%	30.3% / 16.7%	3.48 / 5.67	67 / 59	49.1% / 58.1%	50.7% / 55.9%	32.2% / 53.4%	5.79 / 6.44	0.0% / 1.7%	49.3% / 30.5%	0.00 / 0.00

Carolina Panthers @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 28

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis