Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – OVER (43) – Carolina at HOUSTON

Strong Opinion – 6-point teaser – Carolina (-2) with Baltimore (-2) both at -2.5 or less only

Lean – Carolina (-8)

This total is too low for a dome game featuring the worst defense in the league. I’m referring the Texans, of course, and Houston’s secondary is deteriorating even further after trading cornerback Bradley Roby in early September and with starting CB Terrance Mitchell likely unavailable this week due to a concussion. That will force backup Tremon Smith onto the field. Smith has only 110 career snaps on defense during his four years in the NFL. Sam Darnold will heavily feature top receiver DJ Moore, who ranked 13th in yards per route run last season, with Smith in coverage.

Rookie QB Davis Mills will make his first career start on Thursday night and our metrics have him rated 3 points worse than Tyrod Taylor, but Mills should have time in the pocket to look downfield. Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil conceded just one pressure across from All-Pro DE Myles Garrett last week and he will limit edge defender Brian Burns (7th in pass rushing efficiency).

Our model favors the Panthers by 10.6 points, with a predicted total of 48.0 points, and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43.5 or less (Strong Opinion up to 44.5).

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Texans

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 52.4% 28.2%
Sack Rate 3.9% 14.7%
Int Rate 1.3% 5.9%
Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 24.4%
Big Pass Yards 35.5% 50.0%
NYPP 7.7 5.1

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 17.0
RB YPR 3.4 1.8
Stuff Rate 34.5% 20.6%
Succ Rush Plays 38.9% 35.3%
Big Rush Yards 36.3% 25.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 2.7

Game

All Snaps 68.0 51.5
Early Down Succ 48.5% 36.8%
Succ Rate 46.3% 31.1%
Big Yards Rate 35.5% 44.9%
Yards Per Play 5.8 4.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.8 29.1
Run Ratio 44.0% 33.9%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control 9.2 -9.2

Points 22.5 10.5

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	19 – 14 W	6.9	47.2% / 37.2%	2.8% / 14.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	7.8 / 6.0	44.4% / 35.3%	29.6% / 11.8%	4.1 / 2.6	63 / 60	52.1% / 41.5%	46.0% / 36.7%	45.9% / 50.8%	6.2 / 5.1	1.6% / 0.0%	42.9% / 28.3%	0.0 / 0.0
2	NO	26 – 7 W	11.5	57.5% / 19.2%	5.0% / 15.4%	2.6% / 9.1%	7.6 / 4.3	33.3% / 35.3%	39.4% / 29.4%	2.7 / 2.8	73 / 43	44.8% / 32.1%	46.6% / 25.6%	25.1% / 39.0%	5.4 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	45.2% / 39.5%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	JAX	37 – 21 W	14.4	55.9% / 38.5%	2.9% / 1.9%	0.0% / 5.9%	8.6 / 6.4	48.8% / 62.5%	19.5% / 18.8%	3.9 / 4.8	75 / 68	50.9% / 47.3%	52.0% / 44.1%	46.6% / 38.7%	6.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	54.7% / 23.5%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@CLV	21 – 31 L	-2.9	50.0% / 73.9%	3.3% / 8.7%	3.4% / 4.8%	7.6 / 9.3	39.3% / 50.0%	35.7% / 26.5%	2.9 / 4.6	58 / 57	41.9% / 63.8%	44.8% / 59.6%	40.8% / 39.6%	5.3 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.8%	48.3% / 59.6%	0.0 / 0.0

Carolina Panthers @

Houston Texans

Thu, Sep 23

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis