Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (43.5) – DETROIT (-10) vs Carolina

· Jared Goff is averaging 8.3 yppp when kept clean (5th) and he should have all day in the pocket in this game as Carolina’s 27.9% pressure rate is 29th in the NFL.

· Lions RT Penei Sewell leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, and he should be able to handle Panthers’ edge defender Brian Burns, who has 3 sacks (18th).

· Detroit’s offensive line will have all five starters on the field for the first game since week 1 with the return of guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who is the only offensive lineman to have spent more than 50 snaps in pass protection without giving up a pressure or committing a penalty.

· Carolina’s defense is surrendering a 68% success rate to tight ends (29th) and they will struggle defending between the numbers in this matchup as Sam LaPorta leads all tight ends averaging 2.30 yards per route run.

· Lions WR Jameson Williams should make his season debut this week at Ford Field in a supporting role and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will likely have at least one deep shot dialed up for the vertical threat as the Panthers defense ranks 30th in explosive pass rate allowed.

· Detroit’s ground game ranks 9th according to our metrics and they should have their way versus Carolina’s defense surrendering a league-high 0.12 EPA/rush.

· Bryce Young has been under pressure on 41.3% of his dropbacks this season (7th-most) but I think he will have cleaner pockets on Sunday.

· Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has yet to post fewer than 6 pressures in a game this year, but he will be shut down by RT Taylor Moton, who is one of 5 qualifying tackles to not allow a quarterback hit or sack.

· Carolina’s offense is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry on first down this season but I’m optimistic they won’t be putting themselves behind the chains on Sunday as opposing offenses are passing 6% more than expected given the situation on Detroit’s defense.

· The Panthers can instead use the screen game as the Lions are surrendering a 52% pass success rate to running backs (26th).

· Detroit nickelback Brian Branch is trending towards missing this game and he’s worth 0.5 points. Branch lets the Lions use two high safeties because of his physicality in the slot defending the ground game. Branch leads all cornerbacks with 7 run stops and he’s allowing 0.96 yards per cover snap in the slot (11th).

· Detroit’s backup nickelback Will Harris is surrendering 3.92 yards per cover snap in the slot, and he will toil across from WR Adam Thielen, who has a 61.8% success rate (14th) and 70% of his targets come lined up on the inside.

· Our model favors the Lions by 11.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.5 points (Carolina apply to a 92-19-1 ATS situation and I will be using them in my spread pool even with the line value against them).

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 points or less (Strong Opinion at 44.5).