Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+3.5) over ATLANTA

• Carolina has lost a record 11-straight games when closing as the favorite after falling to the Saints last week.
• Bryce Young averaged only 2.1 yppp against the New Orleans blitz, and the Panthers rank 27th relatively versus the blitz compared to a standard pass rush because of communication errors with a constantly changing offensive line.
• There will be no reprieve for Young on Sunday as the Falcons’ defense has a 52% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• Carolina will try to win this game with their running backs, with screens, and on the ground. Atlanta linebacker Divine Deablo remains sidelined. Deablo is conceding 0.31 yards per cover snap, while backup linebackers JD Bertrand and Ronnie Harrison are combining to surrender 1.43 yards per cover snap.
• Furthermore, the Falcons are surrendering a 47.7% rush success rate (29th), and the Panthers are 8th in EPA/rush.
• Atlanta’s offense is averaging 41% more yards per attempt versus zone compared to man-coverage (2nd), and Michael Penix has a favorable matchup against Carolina’s defense with an 86% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest).
• Penix will need to look downfield. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is gaining 1.93 yards per route run (2nd), but the Panthers are allowing just -0.16 EPA/target to opposing running backs (6th).
• Our model makes Atlanta a 5.6-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, but the Panthers apply to a 120-50-5 ATS situation that plays on teams after a horrible offensive performance.