Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+3.5) over ATLANTA

· The Falcons offense finished 19th in market to end last season and conventional wisdom is that Ridder can’t be worse than Mariota and this unit could get to above average. However, I’m not sure this narrative is true. Ridder was actually much worse than Mariota last season. Mariota had a 50% success rate (12th) compared to Ridder’s 42% (38th). During the QB carousel this year, the Falcons opted for Taylor Heinicke, which tells me they believe in Ridder making a second-year leap to some extent.

· The weapons in the passing game are solid. Drake London was very impressive as a rookie last year and finished 12th in yards per route run. Atlanta’s new WR Mack Hollins is one of the more underrated vertical stretchers in the NFL. Hollins ranked 23rd among WRs in EPA/target last season, just above Tyler Lockett.

· Falcons’ TE Kyle Pitts gained 1,000 yards as a rookie at 9.3 yards per target but produced just 6.0 yards per target in 2022. Pitts had only 59.3% of his targets last year deemed catchable, ranking 37th among qualifying tight ends. I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to expect Pitts to be a top 5 tight end in 2023 with some improvement from Ridder. Also, new TE addition Jonnu Smith has been really effective in Arthur Smith’s offense, averaging 1.82 yards per route run in 2019 to rank 8th among tight ends. However, Smith’s status is uncertain for week 1.

· New Panthers’ DC Ejiro Evero ranked number 1 in our defensive play-calling metrics last year as Denver’s defensive coordinator which was a major surprise to me as I thought they’d downgrade after losing Vic Fangio. Evero effectively combined creative pressure packages with disguised coverage looks and I would say the talent of this year’s Panthers defense is equal to or better than what Evero had with the Broncos.

· Carolina edge defender Brian Burns had 67 pressures (10th) in 2022 and interior defender Derrick Brown graded as PFF’s 7th-best interior defender.

· Panthers’ linebackers Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu both finished in the top 10 in run stops. I don’t think there’s any way the Falcons will be able to maintain a ground game nearly 5 points above league average like they had last season according to our metrics Teams have had a whole offseason to diagnose Arthur Smith’s running attack on film and we know rushing isn’t as sticky year to year as passing.

· Atlanta’s defense brings over Ryan Nielsen from New Orleans to call the plays. We should see some of that same Cover 2-man scheme and I think this defense finally has some talent after so many games of it just being Grady Jarrett out there with a bunch of scrubs. The Falcons bring in David Onyemata and Calais Campbell to play with Jarrett on the interior. Those three combined for 114 pressures last season.

· On the back end, the Falcons added Jessie Bates, who was graded as PFF’s 10th-best safety last season.

· Rookie Byrce Young will be the Panthers’ starting quarterback. Let’s look at the recent output from first-overall QBs Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence. Baker ranked 20th in EPA/play his rookie season, Kyler 22nd, Burrow 21st, and Trevor 28th. To start the season, we have Bryce Young rated as the 26th-best quarterback slotting in just behind more experienced first-round picks Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, and Jordan Love.

· Carolina’s new WR Adam Thielen looked washed up last year in Minnesota, gaining only 1.06 yards per route run, last among qualifying wide receivers, and it looks like he’s the number 1 for Young. The Panthers also added WR DJ Chark and TE Hayden Hurst but both those guys are barely above replacement level. They’re going to need a huge year 3 leap from either Terrace Marshall or Laviska Shenault. Also, Carolina drafted Jonathan Mingo in the second round this year. One of those three guys has to establish themselves as a top 50 receiver or things could get ugly for the rookie QB.

· There’s a lot to like on this Panthers offensive line, which back all five starters from a unit that finished 5th in pass-blocking efficiency last year. LT Ikem Ekwonu struggled out of the gates as a rookie, surrendering a 9.3% pressure rate in September last season, but he settled in nicely and allowed only a 3.3% pressure rate the rest of the way. Meanwhile, PFF graded Taylor Moton as the 3rd-best pass-blocking right tackle in the league last year. However, the Panthers will be without starting guard Austin Corbett on Sunday and he’s worth 0.3 points.

· Our model makes Atlanta a 2.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.1.