Carolina Panthers @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 31
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 253
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -3, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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3-Star Best Bet – ***Carolina (+3) over ATLANTA

Home field advantage is miniscule between these teams and neither was favored by more than 2.5 at close in their two games last year. Carolina is not significantly worse than last season, and Atlanta is not significantly improved to justify the market moving to the key number of 3. This appears to be an overreaction to Carolina’s recent bad performances, but the Panthers apply to a 124-51-5 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on their current straight up and spread losing streak and that angle is 14-4-1 ATS when applying to teams that have lost and failed to cover in 4 or more consecutive games.

The Falcons have managed to allow 6.8 yppp (20th) but the pass defense is likely to be among the league’s worst with nickelback Isaiah Oliver and edge defender Dante Fowler, who are both out due to knee injuries. Oliver allowed only 0.93 yards per cover snap in the slot and all other Atlanta nickelbacks combine to surrender 1.54 yards per cover snap in the slot. Backup edge defender Adetokunbo Ogundeji had 0 pressures in 30 pass rushing snaps last week in his first game filling in for Fowler.

Carolina’s speedy receiver Robby Anderson has 11 targets on passes with 20+ air yards and I expect him to get behind Atlanta’s secondary on Sunday. Sam Darnold will also feature DJ Moore, who is averaging 2.17 yards per route run (17th).

Carolina’s defense ranks 17th this season by our metrics but could crack the top 10 with the addition of Pro Bowl CB Stephon Gilmore, who conceded only 0.96 yards per cover snap last year for the Patriots. Gilmore is practicing this week along with LB Shaq Thompson, who suffered a foot injury in the Panthers’ week 4 loss to Dallas. Thompson is allowing only 0.77 yards per cover snap and his return would also enhance the defense.

The Falcons target RBs on 27.4% of passes (3rd) and Carolina’s defense is conceding a league-low 3.2 yards per target to opposing running backs. Matt Ryan won’t have the easy throws that he’s used to having and WR Cordarrelle Patterson will not be open for Ryan on underneath routes this week – especially if Thompson is back on the field.

Our model favors the Panthers by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 48.6 points, and the situation and matchup are favorable to our side. Carolina is a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 odds or better and 2-Stars down to +2.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Panthers
  • Falcons


  • Pass Plays 41.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.3% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 8.1% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.4% 0.0%
  • NYPP 5.64 0.00


  • Rush Plays 26.71 0.00
  • RB YPR 3.50 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 26.7% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.2% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.5% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.87 0.00


  • All Snaps 67.71 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 48.7% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 44.4% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.5% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.83 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.53 0.00
  • Run Ratio 39.2% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 2.18 -2.18
  • Points 20.86 20.86
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