Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Under (45.5) – ATLANTA (-4) vs Carolina

The Falcons clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Seattle loss – approximately a 73% chance according to my numbers. The Panthers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs but they could get a home game in the wild-card round with a win plus a Saints loss and they would get a first-round bye if the Vikings and Rams also lost. I give the Panthers a 9% chance to win the NFC South and a minute 0.6% chance to get the 2-seed.

The Falcons rank 4th in the league averaging 7.2 yards per pass play despite the national conversation about Matt Ryan’s decline (he had to decline after last year’s epic season). The Panthers get it done with their 5th-rated rush offense and come into Atlanta having won 7 of their last 8 games. Our ratings only favor Atlanta by 2 ½ points but the Falcons do apply to a 63-28-3 ATS game 16 situation. I’ll pass on the side but I’ll lean with the under 45 points or higher based on a 690-498-16 (58%) under situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Falcons

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.3 36.7
Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 43.6%
Sack Rate 6.4% 10.2%
Int Rate 2.6% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 21.6%
Big Pass Yards 39.2% 41.9%
NYPP 5.9 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 32.7 22.7
RB YPR 3.5 3.8
Stuff Rate 23.1% 26.9%
Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 40.5%
Big Rush Yards 40.9% 50.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.0

Game

All Snaps 66.0 59.4
Early Down Succ 47.4% 45.9%
Succ Rate 44.6% 42.7%
Big Yards Rate 41.3% 43.9%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.9 27.6
Run Ratio 49.7% 39.0%
Starting Field Pos 30.0 27.9
Game Control 1.8 -1.8

Points 23.5 20.3

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.7 36.7
Succ Pass Plays 50.5% 47.6%
Sack Rate 4.4% 6.8%
Int Rate 2.4% 0.9%
Deep Pass Rate 20.7% 15.0%
Big Pass Yards 39.4% 32.8%
NYPP 7.3 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 27.5 26.2
RB YPR 4.2 3.7
Stuff Rate 24.7% 23.3%
Succ Rush Plays 45.8% 47.4%
Big Rush Yards 46.6% 38.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.1

Game

All Snaps 61.3 62.9
Early Down Succ 50.9% 50.3%
Succ Rate 48.4% 47.3%
Big Yards Rate 42.3% 35.9%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 29.2
Run Ratio 44.7% 41.5%
Starting Field Pos 25.4 29.1
Game Control 2.0 -2.0

Points 22.1 20.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	23 – 3 W	12.4	45.8% / 46.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	4.2% / 2.9%	7.1 / 4.3	39.0% / 26.7%	14.6% / 26.7%	2.9 / 3.4	65 / 54	42.6% / 48.7%	41.5% / 40.7%	29.7% / 33.6%	4.5 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.9%	63.1% / 27.8%	33.7 / 30.1
2	BUF	9 – 3 W	4.0	50.0% / 35.7%	15.8% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 3.8	34.5% / 21.7%	37.9% / 39.1%	2.7 / 3.0	67 / 51	44.9% / 30.6%	43.3% / 29.4%	39.1% / 20.5%	3.8 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 45.1%	31.3 / 21.1
3	NO	13 – 34 L	-8.6	43.2% / 46.7%	10.8% / 3.3%	9.1% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.1	77.3% / 55.6%	4.5% / 25.9%	6.0 / 5.5	59 / 57	57.8% / 51.1%	55.9% / 50.9%	40.3% / 55.5%	4.9 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 47.4%	25.2 / 37.8
4	@NE	33 – 30 W	1.9	61.3% / 60.4%	6.5% / 6.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	9.8 / 6.1	51.7% / 73.7%	20.7% / 21.1%	4.8 / 4.2	60 / 67	54.9% / 66.7%	56.7% / 64.2%	48.0% / 22.0%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 0.0%	48.3% / 28.4%	26.7 / 26.1
5	@DET	27 – 24 W	6.3	50.0% / 51.2%	8.3% / 14.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 4.7	17.6% / 40.0%	32.4% / 40.0%	0.9 / 3.3	70 / 56	37.0% / 52.4%	34.3% / 48.2%	53.7% / 53.7%	5.2 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.8%	48.6% / 26.8%	31.7 / 29.8
6	PHI	23 – 28 L	-3.0	37.0% / 39.4%	3.7% / 9.1%	5.8% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.3	48.0% / 37.9%	40.0% / 27.6%	3.2 / 3.6	79 / 62	45.0% / 41.9%	40.5% / 38.7%	20.7% / 54.2%	3.9 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	31.6% / 46.8%	30.0 / 32.9
7	@CHI	3 – 17 L	-11.4	41.0% / 18.2%	12.8% / 36.4%	5.9% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.7	33.3% / 32.3%	33.3% / 16.1%	3.6 / 2.3	69 / 42	37.7% / 41.7%	37.7% / 28.6%	49.8% / 67.3%	4.2 / 3.7	1.4% / 0.0%	43.5% / 73.8%	24.6 / 28.7
8	@TB	17 – 3 W	7.2	37.5% / 36.6%	0.0% / 7.3%	3.1% / 5.3%	4.8 / 4.7	45.5% / 45.5%	24.2% / 31.8%	3.1 / 3.9	65 / 63	43.2% / 46.0%	41.5% / 39.7%	30.5% / 19.4%	3.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.6%	50.8% / 34.9%	30.6 / 23.2
9	ATL	20 – 17 W	0.4	40.0% / 47.5%	4.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.2 / 7.6	50.0% / 36.8%	21.1% / 26.3%	5.3 / 2.8	63 / 59	50.0% / 52.4%	46.0% / 44.1%	43.3% / 39.6%	5.2 / 6.0	3.2% / 0.0%	60.3% / 32.2%	35.8 / 20.5
10	MIA	45 – 21 W	12.9	60.0% / 48.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	7.3 / 5.8	52.6% / 27.8%	18.4% / 22.2%	7.8 / 5.6	73 / 55	54.5% / 40.0%	56.2% / 41.8%	57.3% / 38.9%	7.5 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	52.1% / 32.7%	30.1 / 21.9
12	@NYJ	35 – 27 W	3.0	29.0% / 48.6%	9.7% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 7.6	39.4% / 38.5%	36.4% / 26.9%	4.4 / 4.2	64 / 63	36.7% / 46.9%	34.4% / 44.4%	50.5% / 54.5%	4.7 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	51.6% / 41.3%	25.3 / 27.7
13	@NO	21 – 31 L	-8.7	40.0% / 41.7%	6.7% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 7.0	52.2% / 31.3%	17.4% / 28.1%	4.9 / 4.7	53 / 68	51.2% / 39.1%	45.3% / 36.8%	38.4% / 57.6%	5.3 / 5.9	1.9% / 1.5%	43.4% / 47.1%	27.8 / 32.1
14	MIN	31 – 24 W	5.9	29.6% / 44.0%	7.4% / 12.0%	4.0% / 4.5%	4.8 / 5.1	41.5% / 52.4%	19.5% / 23.8%	5.3 / 4.8	68 / 71	43.5% / 47.3%	36.8% / 46.5%	47.4% / 36.2%	5.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.4%	60.3% / 29.6%	33.2 / 31.7
15	GB	31 – 24 W	5.5	56.3% / 46.8%	3.1% / 6.4%	0.0% / 6.8%	7.4 / 5.6	45.2% / 63.2%	14.3% / 10.5%	3.7 / 6.3	74 / 66	55.4% / 53.8%	50.0% / 51.5%	38.7% / 44.5%	5.3 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.5%	56.8% / 28.8%	27.7 / 28.8
16	TB	22 – 19 W	-0.3	42.9% / 42.4%	7.1% / 18.2%	3.8% / 0.0%	5.0 / 9.9	54.5% / 25.0%	12.1% / 37.5%	3.5 / 2.8	61 / 57	56.8% / 30.4%	49.2% / 35.1%	31.6% / 60.5%	4.2 / 6.9	0.0% / 5.3%	54.1% / 42.1%	36.7 / 26.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	23 – 17 W	2.5	50.0% / 31.8%	6.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.0	32.0% / 52.6%	24.0% / 15.8%	2.6 / 6.6	57 / 63	45.2% / 37.5%	42.1% / 38.1%	49.7% / 31.2%	6.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 30.2%	18.3 / 28.1
2	GB	34 – 23 W	12.4	51.6% / 50.9%	9.7% / 5.7%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.2 / 5.8	55.6% / 56.3%	18.5% / 25.0%	5.2 / 3.8	58 / 69	55.3% / 53.8%	53.4% / 52.2%	50.0% / 24.2%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.4%	46.6% / 23.2%	26.7 / 22.1
3	@DET	30 – 26 W	6.3	48.6% / 40.4%	5.4% / 4.3%	8.6% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.4	48.3% / 31.6%	13.8% / 26.3%	5.2 / 3.7	66 / 66	50.9% / 41.5%	48.5% / 37.9%	34.7% / 31.8%	6.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 28.8%	27.8 / 29.7
4	BUF	17 – 23 L	-2.0	48.8% / 43.5%	2.3% / 13.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 7.1	58.6% / 44.7%	27.6% / 23.7%	5.1 / 3.1	72 / 61	56.1% / 47.7%	52.8% / 44.3%	30.9% / 27.6%	5.4 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	40.3% / 62.3%	25.9 / 21.9
6	MIA	17 – 20 L	7.7	50.0% / 45.5%	5.6% / 0.0%	2.9% / 3.0%	6.6 / 4.6	47.4% / 46.9%	42.1% / 25.0%	5.3 / 4.3	55 / 65	48.8% / 47.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	40.1% / 23.8%	6.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 49.2%	20.7 / 30.2
7	@NE	7 – 23 L	-11.4	58.8% / 48.4%	2.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.8	54.5% / 56.4%	18.2% / 12.8%	5.5 / 4.2	56 / 70	65.9% / 57.7%	57.1% / 52.9%	26.8% / 38.4%	6.1 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.7%	21.9 / 28.8
8	@NYJ	25 – 20 W	-1.1	50.0% / 51.4%	3.3% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.7	37.5% / 22.7%	28.1% / 36.4%	4.4 / 2.0	62 / 57	45.8% / 41.5%	43.5% / 40.4%	53.1% / 40.1%	6.2 / 4.9	3.2% / 1.8%	51.6% / 38.6%	26.1 / 36.9
9	@CAR	17 – 20 L	-0.4	47.5% / 40.0%	5.0% / 4.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.2	36.8% / 50.0%	26.3% / 21.1%	2.8 / 5.3	59 / 63	52.4% / 50.0%	44.1% / 46.0%	39.6% / 43.3%	6.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 3.2%	32.2% / 60.3%	20.5 / 35.8
10	DAL	27 – 7 W	4.8	63.3% / 40.5%	3.3% / 21.6%	3.4% / 0.0%	6.8 / 3.4	29.4% / 45.5%	44.1% / 22.7%	3.9 / 4.9	64 / 59	44.9% / 42.6%	45.3% / 42.4%	46.7% / 55.4%	5.3 / 3.9	0.0% / 3.4%	53.1% / 37.3%	29.9 / 33.3
11	@SEA	34 – 31 W	8.5	53.6% / 48.9%	3.6% / 6.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.8 / 5.0	34.4% / 65.2%	21.9% / 21.7%	2.8 / 5.9	60 / 68	40.5% / 57.4%	43.3% / 54.4%	37.7% / 46.7%	4.7 / 5.3	1.7% / 1.5%	53.3% / 33.8%	33.0 / 36.4
12	TB	34 – 20 W	8.2	60.0% / 51.1%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.5 / 6.2	60.7% / 56.5%	14.3% / 17.4%	5.3 / 4.1	63 / 68	55.1% / 56.4%	60.3% / 52.9%	61.4% / 18.8%	8.2 / 5.5	1.6% / 0.0%	44.4% / 33.8%	26.3 / 25.0
13	MIN	9 – 14 L	-0.7	34.5% / 62.5%	0.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.5	45.5% / 44.1%	22.7% / 17.6%	4.6 / 3.2	51 / 66	46.2% / 59.2%	39.2% / 53.0%	23.3% / 16.5%	5.4 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 51.5%	22.4 / 25.9
14	NO	20 – 17 W	-1.9	50.0% / 51.4%	3.6% / 5.4%	11.1% / 2.9%	7.5 / 6.9	56.4% / 46.7%	23.1% / 33.3%	3.4 / 3.3	67 / 52	56.9% / 53.7%	53.7% / 50.0%	40.9% / 53.6%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	58.2% / 28.8%	24.0 / 26.6
15	@TB	24 – 21 W	5.0	43.8% / 60.0%	3.1% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 8.3	57.1% / 66.7%	17.1% / 22.2%	5.7 / 4.7	67 / 53	48.1% / 64.4%	50.7% / 62.3%	48.8% / 29.0%	6.1 / 7.0	0.0% / 1.9%	52.2% / 34.0%	24.0 / 26.5
16	@NO	13 – 23 L	-8.2	46.3% / 48.3%	12.2% / 3.4%	2.8% / 3.6%	6.4 / 7.9	33.3% / 25.7%	28.6% / 28.6%	3.2 / 2.5	62 / 64	51.1% / 43.2%	41.9% / 35.9%	50.0% / 58.5%	5.4 / 5.0	1.6% / 0.0%	33.9% / 54.7%	33.2 / 29.3

Carolina Panthers @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Dec 31

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis