Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **WASHINGTON (+7) over Buffalo

Strong Opinion – Under (44)

· Buffalo’s offense is averaging 0.18 EPA/dropback (7th) but I think they will be forced into running the ball more this Sunday, which will hinder them from winning by margin. Washington’s defense is allowing only a 39% dropback success rate (5th) and they are equipped to shut down one of Buffalo’s main avenues in this passing game.

· The Bills drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round to play alongside TE Dawson Knox while putting an emphasis on heavier offensive formations. Josh Allen is one of six quarterbacks targeting tight ends on more than a quarter of passes. However, the Commanders conceded only 6.3 yards per target to TEs last year (6th) and this season they are allowing just 3.2 yards per target to tight ends.

· Allen will not be able to find WR Stefon Diggs on deep routes with constant pressure coming at him. Washington edge defender Montez Sweat ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will line up across from right tackle Spencer Brown, who has allowed 7 pressures (12th-most).

· Furthermore, edge defender Chase Young made just his fourth start since November of 2021 last week and he looks to be the wrecking ball we saw when he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Young’s 7 pressures ranked 2nd among all edge rushers in week 2.

· Buffalo’s defense looks like it could be without two crucial pieces. Safety Micah Hyde ranked 3rd in PFF coverage grade during his last full season in 2021. Edge defender Leonard Floyd ranks 2nd on Bills in pass-rushing efficiency. Neither Hyde nor Floyd is practicing, and Buffalo’s defense is already without top edge rusher Von Miller.

· The Commanders have a league-average 43% success rate on offense, and I think former Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and emerging young QB Sam Howell can keep this game close at home against a banged-up defense.

· There could be intermittent rain showers in the afternoon, and we will likely see a wet field in Washington once again like in week 1 when the Commanders and Cardinals put up just 458 yards combined on a sticky day.

· Our model favors the Bills by just 4.1 points, with a predicted total of 39.5 points, and Buffalo applies to a 20-71-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s 38-10 win over the Raiders.

Washington is a 2-Star Best Bet at +6.5 points or more (1-Star at +6) and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 43.5 points or higher.