Buffalo Bills @

Tennessee Titans

Mon, Oct 18
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 275
Odds: Tennessee Titans +5.5, Total: 54

Game Analysis

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Lean – Buffalo (-5.5) vs TENNESSEE

Derrick Henry had 28% of his rushing attempts go for a first down or touchdown last week but I do not see that happening again on Monday night. Buffalo’s rush defense ranks 7th by our metrics¬†as interior defender Ed Oliver has 9 run stops in 54 snaps defending the run.¬†Linebacker Matt Milano (10.3% run stop rate) pulled his hamstring last week in Kansas City but it sounds like he has a good chance to be back on the field this week.

Ryan Tannehill has gone from averaging 7.2 yppp last year to 5.7 yppp due to injuries at wide receiver and a new offensive coordinator. AJ Brown is averaging 1.45 fewer yards per route run this season dealing with a strained hamstring. Julio Jones missed the last two weeks, but he averaged 2.24 yards per route run in September and should be back in uniform for this game.

The Bills guards have combined to surrender 35 pressures and won’t be able to stay in front of interior defender Jeffery Simmons (10th in pass rushing efficiency). Josh Allen probably will not be able the underneath routes available to Cole Beasley as nickelback Chris Jackson is conceding only 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd). Allen has a 2.91 second average time to throw, and I expect him to continue extending plays when Buffalo’s interior offensive line collapses.

Our model favors the Bills by 7.7 points, with a predicted total of 54.6 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Titans
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.8 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 40.3%
  • Sack Rate 2.3% 7.6%
  • Int Rate 1.3% 6.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.5% 14.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.6% 20.6%
  • NYPP 7.8 5.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 31.2 21.2
  • RB YPR 3.9 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 24.0% 30.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.1% 36.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.9% 39.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.6




Game

  • All Snaps 69.0 59.2
  • Early Down Succ 51.8% 42.6%
  • Succ Rate 51.0% 39.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.7% 27.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.1
  • Run Ratio 45.9% 37.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 11.6 -11.6
 
  • Points 34.4 12.8
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