Buffalo Bills @

Tennessee Titans

Tue, Oct 13
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 481
Odds: Tennessee Titans +3, Total: 52

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – TENNESSEE (+3 -105) over Buffalo

Tennessee’s offense will get starting LT Taylor Lewan and top WR AJ Brown back in uniform tonight. Buffalo’s defense will be their top two cornerbacks, Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace, which is significant, and starting linebacker Matt Milano is also out for the Bills. Titans WR Corey Davis is averaging 2.12 yards per route run but Davis is a scratch due to Covid-19. However, Buffalo’s defense has surrendered more yards to tight ends than any other team so Jonnu Smith (gaining 2.66 yards per route run, 3rd) should find spaces to exploit the Bills without LB Milano. The loss of White and Milano combined is worth 1.7 points according to our metrics.

Ryan Tannehill might still have some problems despite great matchups for his receivers. Tannehill has been terrible versus the blitz the last 3 seasons, averaging just 5.2 yards per pass play compared to his 7.6 yppp against a standard rush, and Buffalo’s defense blitzes at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Tannehill will likely thrive on the downs when the Bills send a standard rush and struggle against extra pressure, but RB Derrick Henry should be more reliable on Tuesday night.  Henry is in line for a break-out game against Buffalo’s porous run defense (31st in our metrics) after averaging less than 4 yards per carry through the first 3 games.

Tennessee’s rush defense actually ranks worse (last) than the Bills, but it won’t be as much of a problem because Buffalo’s offense passes more on early downs in neutral situations than any team in the NFL.

The Titans won’t have their top pass rusher Jeffery Simmons or top CB Adoree’ Jackson, which could be trouble against this well-schemed Bills offense. Josh Allen has had to throw into a tight window on just 15% of his passes past the line of scrimmage, more than 7 percentage points better than the league average. Former Vikings’ star receiver Stefon Diggs is proving to be a great addition, averaging 2.69 yards per route run (9th).  However, Diggs could see more double-teams than usual with WR John Brown out with a calf injury. Brown’s absence helps to balance out the absence of Tennessee’s top receiver (Brown is worth 0.4 points).

We are not counting this as a bye week for Tennessee in our model because they were prepping for Pittsburgh half the time and didn’t even get a standard amount of practice time for this game. Our model favors the Bills by 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 49.7 points with all injuries taken into account, and the Titans apply to a very good 87-31-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Also, unbeaten teams (3-0 or better) are 41-18 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 4 points (11-3 ATS as dogs), including 12-3 ATS against an unbeaten team. I might normally make this game a Best Bet at +3 given the line value and the good situation but there is some uncertainty about how the lack of practice time could affect the Titans, although we did account for that in the model. Tennessee is a Strong Opinion at +3 at -110 odds or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Titans
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.7 40.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 57.7% 47.9%
  • Sack Rate 6.6% 6.6%
  • Int Rate 1.0% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.8% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 52.0% 46.2%
  • NYPP 8.4 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.3 23.0
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 21.0% 19.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.2% 64.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 50.4% 24.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 66.0 63.7
  • Early Down Succ 54.4% 56.6%
  • Succ Rate 53.5% 53.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 51.5% 41.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.8 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 2.0% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 25.3
  • Run Ratio 38.2% 35.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.9 24.9
  • Game Control 8.6 -8.6
 
  • Points 31.0 25.7
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