Game Analysis

Lean – Over (41) – Buffalo (-2.5) vs NY JETS

• The Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh this week after his 2-3 start but it’s clear the defense isn’t the problem in New York. The Jets are conceding only a 42.2% success rate since 2021 (6th) when Saleh came over after serving as the 49ers defensive coordinator.
• New York offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers are more to blame for the slow start as the Jets are averaging just 4.5 yppl (27th). Interim HC Jeff Ulbrich made his first big move by naming Todd Downing the new offensive player-caller.
• Rodgers is averaging only 3.9 yppp the last two games versus Minnesota and Denver. The Vikings lead the NFL with a 51.7% blitz rate and the Broncos are 3rd with a 47.1% blitz rate.
• I expect Rodgers to turn around the offense this week as he won’t have to contend with the blitz. Buffalo’s defense has an 80.3% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest). Bills edge rusher Von Miller is suspended, and interior defender Ed Oliver is likely out again with a hamstring injury.
• Buffalo’s defense will likely have nickelback Taron Johnson back on the field. Backup Cam Lewis is surrendering 2.06 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 21st out of 22 qualifying nickelbacks. Johnson allowed only 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot last season (4th) and is a massive upgrade over Lewis.
• The Bills are surrendering a league-high 5.2 yards per carry, but they should improve as they got back starting LB Terrel Bernard last week after he missed two games and Taron Johnson had 17 run stops last season ranked 2nd among nickelbacks.
• Rodgers will need to get the screen game going as RB Breece Hall has a 43% receiving success rate (2nd) and Buffalo’s defense is surrendering 0.44 EPA/target to opposing running backs (29th).
• Josh Allen completed only 9 of his 30 attempts against the Texans in his first game without Bills WR Khalil Shakir, who averaged 2.94 yards per route run in the slot during the first month of the season (4th) before missing last week.
• You’d normally expect TE Dalton Kincaid to step up in Shakir’s absence, but Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low 25% success rate to opposing tight ends. It won’t get much less challenging for Kincaid versus a Jets defense conceding a 39% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th).
• Allen has a yards per attempt versus single-high coverages only 82% of his yards per attempt against two-high and he could struggle as New York’s defense has a 52% single-high coverage rate (7th-highest).
• Jets cornerback DJ Reed is allowing just 0.32 yards per cover snap (3rd) and he will shut down WR Keon Coleman, whose 3 deep receptions rank 11th.
• New York’s interior pass rush is dangerous with Pro Bowl Quinnen Williams next to Javon Kinlaw, who ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency. The duo will wreak havoc across from Buffalo center Connor McGovern, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Bills by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points, but the matchups favor the Jets, and we think the true line is Bills by 2 points. I used the Jets in my spread pool and Lean Over.