Game Analysis

Note: The Best Bet on the Under has moved out of range.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (46.5) – NY JETS vs Buffalo

Strong Opinion 6 point Teaser – NY Jets (+8.5) with Washington (-1)

· I know Bills edge defender Von Miller won’t be on the field Monday night but nevertheless, I believe Buffalo’s defense is among the three best in the NFL, as is the Jets’ defense. The Bills were rated as a top 3 defense by the market in 2021 before they acquired Von Miller.

· Buffalo’s defense finished 7th in EPA last season despite two All-Pro caliber players in the secondary, Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White, combining for only 258 cover snaps. Furthermore, Miller missed 6 games in 2022.

· The Bills lost LB Tremaine Edmunds, who ranked 5th in PFF coverage grade but I think they did a clever job replacing him with a safety. They played almost exclusively Nickel under Leslie Frazier, but I could see the Buffalo’s defense getting into a lot more Big Dime looks with Sean McDermott taking over as play caller. They added 6-0, 208 lb safety Taylor Rapp, who graded 5th against the run and 12th versus the pass last season according to PFF. Rapp can play in the box alongside LB Matt Milano, who finished 4th in PFF coverage grade last year.

· The Bills added another body up front in edge defender Leonard Floyd, who had 53 pressures last season (22nd).

· Buffalo’s Cover 2 zone scheme on defense will take away the underneath routes from Aaron Rodgers, who struggled last season in Green Bay after Davante Adams left in free agency – and his receiving corps is only slightly improved in 2023 with his new team. Garrett Wilson ranked 23rd in yards per route run as a rookie and he should solidify himself as a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver in 2023, but there really isn’t much else to get excited about.

· Jets WR Mecole Hardman was injured last season but never graded as a top 50 WR in any of the previous three seasons he had enough snaps to qualify. WR Allen Lazard generated about half as much EPA/target than a league-average receiver last year with Rodgers in Green Bay. Randall Cobb is a league-average slot receiver at best going into his age 33 season. New York’s starting TE Tyler Conklin gained just 6.3 yards per target last season and is replacement-level.

· The Jets’ offensive line will be a downgrade from the protection Rodgers had last season as the Packers finished 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency. Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, and Alijah Vera-Tucker are all just league average on the interior so 2020 first-round pick Mekhi Becton and 38-year-old LT Duane Brown have to be solid or New York’s protection will be mediocre again.

· New Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s offense was obviously terrible last year in Denver, and he didn’t call the plays the three previous years in Green Bay, but he did from 2016-18 in Jacksonville. Hackett’s offenses have an average finish of 21st during his last four years calling plays and he’s clearly a below-average offensive coordinator. It may take Rodgers a few weeks to slowly cut out the inefficiencies in Hackett’s play calling.

· New York’s defense should pick up where they left off. The Jets finished 6th in EPA/play allowed despite being one of only four defenses to average less than 1 takeaway per game.

· DT Sheldon Rankins might be the only significant piece New York’s defense lost and they upgraded him with interior defender Quinton Jefferson, who had nearly twice as many pressures last season as Rankins.

· New York DT Quinnen Williams is coming off a season in which he led all interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency. The Bills will be starting two new guards this season and they’ll have problems containing the Jets’ All-Pro.

· The Jets will no longer be giving significant snaps to Lamarcus Joyner, who ranked 56th among qualifying safeties in PFF coverage grade. Sauce Gardner had the highest PFF coverage grade of any cornerback in the NFL as a rookie and cornerback DJ Reed ranked 11th.

· Buffalo’s offense, with Josh Allen behind center, will be one of the best in the NFL but I don’t see them scoring more than 24 points in this game with a wet ball due to the humidity and possible rain. Also, Allen averaged only 4.5 yards per pass play against New York’s defense last season.

· Rodgers likes to use the full play clock and a heavy cadence. Green Bay’s offense had the 2nd-slowest pace in the NFL after taking out garbage time. There will be a below-average amount of snaps for both offenses in this game.

· Our model favors the Bills by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 43.3 points, and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 points or more.