Buffalo Bills @

New York Jets

Sun, Nov 14
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 247
Odds: New York Jets +13, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – Buffalo Team Total Over (30.5 -120) at -120 odds or better

Alternate play is 1-Star Over (47.5) Buff-NY Jets

Buffalo (-13) over NY JETS

Josh Allen is averaging 6.5 yards per pass play this year (16th) after throwing for 7.3 yppp last season (5th), but I think his regression is likely a bit overstated. Buffalo has only had one game with scoring conditions higher than average this year according to our numbers. New York’s pass defense ranks 28th and I expect the Bills to top 30 points on Sunday.

Mike White is averaging only 5.7 air yards per attempt and Buffalo’s defense has shown the ability to stop the dink-and-dunk offensive scheme. Miami’s quarterbacks are also near the bottom of the NFL in average depth of target and Bills held them to 3.7 yppp in two games.

Jet WR Jamison Crowder averaged 10.5 yards per target in White’s first start, but Taron Johnson is conceding only 0.73 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd) and he will limit Crowder if the nickelback is able to work through concussion protocol this week.

New York’s ground game is unlikely to provide much relief for White as Buffalo’s rush defense is the best in the NFL.

Our model favors the Bills by 15.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.9 points. Historically, double-digit road favorites in the NFL are a risky proposition (86-110-3 ATS since 1980, although better more recently), but road favorites of 10 or more coming off a loss in which they failed to cover by 10 points or more (i.e. a horrible performance) are 24-6-1 ATS, including 13-1 ATS against a divisional rival. So, the Bills certainly won’t be looking past the Jets after losing to the Jaguars last week.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Jets
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.63 36.25
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 40.7%
  • Sack Rate 3.6% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 1.6% 4.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 14.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.1% 29.6%
  • NYPP 6.50 4.96



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.00 22.25
  • RB YPR 3.76 3.74
  • Stuff Rate 25.0% 30.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.1% 38.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.0% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.44 3.84




Game

  • All Snaps 68.63 58.50
  • Early Down Succ 50.5% 43.5%
  • Succ Rate 49.0% 40.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.3% 34.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.68 4.53
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.15 28.41
  • Run Ratio 39.3% 38.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 7.89 -7.89
 
  • Points 29.38 14.75
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