Game Analysis
NEW YORK JETS (-3) vs Buffalo
Sam Darnold showed his inexperience as a 21-year-old rookie last season and was clearly flustered in hostile environments, averaging 1.7 yards per pass play fewer on the road than at home. However, I believe in the young quarterback’s talent and Adam Gase should put him in a position to succeed. Gase specializes in getting the ball into the hands of his receivers with space in front of them to create plays after the catch and that tactic should be able to exploit Buffalo’s back line. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer ranked 52nd and 53rd out of 64 qualifying safeties last season in tackling efficiency. The Bills do have two excellent cornerbacks with Tre’Davious White allowing just 0.68 yards per cover snap (4th) and Levi Wallace surrendering the fewest yards per cover snap in the league after joining the team in week 10. Nevertheless, having lock-down corners on the outside is not as vital against Gase’s scheme that doesn’t prioritize one on one matchups.
New York’s offensive line has a chance to be a top unit with the additions of Ryan Kalil and Kelechi Osemele, who have 7 Pro Bowls between the two of them. And, Frank Pollack joined the Jets’ staff after coaching a top 10 offensive line in 4 out of his 5 years in Dallas. However, the Bills’ Jerry Hughes is one of the most underrated edge defenders in the NFL after leading the league in pass rushing efficiency last season without even getting a Pro Bowl nod and Jets’ tackle Kelvin Beachum will have his hands full. The Bills surrendered just 5.5 yards per target to opposing running backs last year (7th) and Matt Milano, who ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per cover snap among linebackers, should limit Le’Veon Bell’s production in the receiving game.
I do not expect New York’s defense to make any sort of leap with Gregg Williams replacing Todd Bowles as the defensive coordinator. Williams is quirky with his safeties and there should be plenty of space for Josh Allen to find receivers downfield. Zay Jones and Robert Foster each caught 7 passes with 20+ air yards in the second half of last season, tied for 6th-most among receivers. Allen added 34 points of value with his legs last season, more than any other quarterback, and his scrambling ability should continue to be a major factor, especially against a Jets defense without Avery Williamson, who ranked 7th in tackling efficiency among linebackers in 2018. The Bills cutting veteran RB LeSean McCoy was the right move, as McCoy ranked as one of the league’s worst running backs last year in elusiveness and success rate and Buffalo’s offense will be better served now with Devin Singletary as the featured back.
Sam Darnold should take a step forward this year with Adam Gase and New York’s offense has a chance to be league-average or above. Josh Allen’s deep balls and scrambling ability have a chance to expose the Gregg Williams defense. Our numbers favor the Jets by 2.8 points with a predicted total of 42.8 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
33.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.0%
46.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
4.3%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
27.7%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.0%
31.7%
-
NYPP
5.5
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.1%
30.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
43.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.9%
52.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.0
60.5
-
Early Down Succ
42.7%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
45.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.3%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
29.4
-
Run Ratio
46.4%
45.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
32.0
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.1%
45.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
3.6%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.5%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.8%
41.4%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.6
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
32.9%
26.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.1%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.7%
49.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
60.7
66.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
49.0%
-
Succ Rate
40.4%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.1%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.2
-
Run Ratio
42.1%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
29.8
-
Game Control
-2.5
2.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% /
42.5% |
15.4% /
5.0% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
6.3 |
22.7% /
44.1% |
31.8% /
29.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
61 /
74 |
24.4% /
43.3% |
21.3% /
43.2% |
39.9% /
43.1% |
2.5 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.1% /
45.9% |
30.5 /
41.3 |
| 2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% /
65.5% |
13.2% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.3 |
54.5% /
34.6% |
31.8% /
42.3% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
60 /
55 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
43.3% /
50.9% |
59.0% /
44.1% |
4.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
47.3% |
26.7 /
36.5 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
12.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
42.1% /
16.7% |
23.7% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
63 /
65 |
42.9% /
48.0% |
41.3% /
44.6% |
42.1% /
3.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
60.3% /
9.2% |
40.2 /
17.7 |
| 4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% /
47.6% |
17.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
2.5% |
2.2 /
6.7 |
43.8% /
56.3% |
25.0% /
37.5% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
56 /
74 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
51.4% |
31.0% /
49.6% |
2.6 /
5.7 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
43.2% |
27.3 /
27.4 |
| 5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
33.3% /
46.4% |
4.8% /
7.1% |
5.0% /
3.8% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
46.5% /
56.0% |
20.9% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.0 |
64 /
53 |
43.8% /
51.2% |
42.2% /
50.9% |
18.8% /
29.0% |
3.5 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
3.8% |
67.2% /
47.2% |
34.8 /
30.2 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
29.0% /
27.3% |
6.5% /
21.2% |
6.9% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
40.7% /
37.5% |
22.2% /
29.2% |
3.7 /
3.1 |
58 /
57 |
32.6% /
34.9% |
34.5% /
31.6% |
46.3% /
34.3% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
1.7% /
1.8% |
46.6% /
42.1% |
28.2 /
36.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
5 – 37 L |
-16.0 |
39.4% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
31.8% /
16.2% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
55 /
60 |
48.9% /
53.5% |
43.6% /
51.7% |
39.9% /
53.7% |
5.5 /
6.3 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
61.7% |
22.8 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
NE |
6 – 25 L |
-6.6 |
36.4% /
53.2% |
6.8% /
4.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.6 |
42.1% /
36.0% |
36.8% /
20.0% |
2.4 /
3.0 |
63 /
72 |
43.5% /
52.7% |
38.1% /
47.2% |
46.5% /
35.9% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
34.7% |
29.3 /
28.2 |
| 9 |
CHI |
9 – 41 L |
-18.7 |
35.8% /
42.9% |
7.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
5.0% |
3.1 /
6.0 |
28.6% /
44.0% |
42.9% /
32.0% |
3.5 /
2.6 |
81 /
46 |
33.3% /
51.5% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
39.4% /
40.0% |
3.3 /
4.1 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
54.3% |
25.9 /
43.9 |
| 10 |
@NYJ |
41 – 10 W |
20.8 |
48.1% /
37.8% |
3.7% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
8.9 /
3.1 |
50.0% /
55.6% |
19.6% /
38.9% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
73 /
55 |
49.1% /
52.5% |
49.3% /
43.6% |
53.2% /
37.2% |
6.2 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.0% /
32.7% |
36.8 /
28.5 |
| 12 |
JAC |
24 – 21 W |
4.4 |
36.8% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
8.4 /
4.1 |
48.6% /
53.8% |
17.1% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
54 /
65 |
52.4% /
51.9% |
44.4% /
49.2% |
50.8% /
62.8% |
6.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.8% /
60.0% |
31.5 /
24.6 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
17 – 21 L |
-4.1 |
37.1% /
51.9% |
5.7% /
11.1% |
6.1% /
4.2% |
6.2 /
4.3 |
51.6% /
30.4% |
22.6% /
43.5% |
6.4 /
2.6 |
66 /
50 |
46.2% /
48.7% |
43.9% /
42.0% |
68.0% /
17.1% |
6.3 /
3.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
46.0% |
23.4 /
28.6 |
| 14 |
NYJ |
23 – 27 L |
4.8 |
37.5% /
48.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.4% /
4.0% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
45.2% /
32.1% |
19.4% /
35.7% |
5.7 /
2.8 |
71 /
53 |
38.6% /
37.8% |
40.8% /
39.6% |
39.4% /
38.7% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
43.7% /
52.8% |
27.2 /
47.1 |
| 15 |
DET |
14 – 13 W |
-2.4 |
40.7% /
44.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
7.2 |
45.9% /
53.8% |
13.5% /
26.9% |
3.2 /
4.0 |
64 /
55 |
50.0% /
52.4% |
43.8% /
49.1% |
43.6% /
61.7% |
4.9 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
47.3% |
23.1 /
20.7 |
| 16 |
@NE |
12 – 24 L |
-10.8 |
41.5% /
38.5% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.9% /
8.0% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
38.9% /
48.9% |
5.6% /
12.8% |
4.0 /
5.8 |
59 /
73 |
47.8% /
50.9% |
40.7% /
45.2% |
36.0% /
60.8% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
1.7% /
1.4% |
30.5% /
64.4% |
29.9 /
33.5 |
| 17 |
MIA |
42 – 17 W |
12.6 |
51.9% /
44.4% |
3.7% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
6.3% |
8.0 /
3.5 |
42.4% /
48.0% |
21.2% /
28.0% |
5.0 /
4.0 |
60 /
61 |
46.8% /
50.0% |
46.7% /
45.9% |
54.1% /
12.4% |
6.4 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
55.0% /
41.0% |
37.5 /
30.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
38.9% /
40.0% |
11.1% /
26.7% |
4.7 /
2.6 |
59 /
67 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
49.2% /
43.3% |
55.9% /
38.1% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
61.0% /
22.4% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
58.1% |
36.8% /
29.0% |
2.2 /
4.4 |
63 /
58 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
51.7% |
50.3% /
36.6% |
5.7 /
4.4 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
30.2% /
53.4% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
43.3% /
33.3% |
3.6 /
4.0 |
63 /
74 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
40.5% |
22.4% /
32.5% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
44.6% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
34.8% /
50.9% |
4.3% /
7.3% |
4.5% /
2.0% |
8.2 /
6.3 |
47.4% /
47.1% |
18.4% /
47.1% |
8.5 /
5.4 |
61 /
72 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
42.6% /
50.0% |
74.6% /
42.2% |
8.4 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
62.3% /
23.6% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
65.6% /
46.5% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
3.3% /
7.0% |
8.3 /
7.0 |
25.0% /
60.9% |
30.6% /
17.4% |
3.0 /
5.5 |
68 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
44.1% /
51.5% |
42.2% /
32.5% |
5.5 /
6.5 |
1.5% /
1.5% |
52.9% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
| 7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
2.4% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
37.5% /
25.0% |
33.3% /
45.8% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
69 /
65 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
30.4% /
30.8% |
50.2% /
58.2% |
3.8 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
36.9% |
27.3 /
41.4 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% /
45.2% |
3.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
20.8% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
14.7% |
2.4 /
5.3 |
54 /
65 |
30.8% /
51.9% |
29.6% /
49.2% |
20.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
52.3% |
22.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% /
42.9% |
9.3% /
14.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
38.1% /
25.9% |
28.6% /
25.9% |
3.8 /
2.4 |
64 /
55 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.9% /
34.5% |
41.8% /
15.5% |
4.4 /
3.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
49.1% |
18.4 /
32.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% /
48.1% |
8.1% /
3.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
8.9 |
55.6% /
50.0% |
38.9% /
19.6% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
55 /
73 |
52.5% /
49.1% |
43.6% /
49.3% |
37.2% /
53.2% |
3.6 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
63.0% |
28.5 /
36.8 |
| 12 |
NE |
13 – 27 L |
-3.1 |
38.3% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
9.1 |
53.3% /
61.1% |
20.0% /
16.7% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
62 /
67 |
43.5% /
58.5% |
41.9% /
55.2% |
28.4% /
57.8% |
5.5 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.2% /
53.7% |
27.1 /
16.8 |
| 13 |
@TEN |
22 – 26 L |
8.4 |
40.6% /
36.8% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
3.9 /
7.2 |
42.4% /
36.4% |
33.3% /
18.2% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
60 |
46.0% /
43.8% |
41.5% /
36.7% |
28.9% /
69.7% |
4.3 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
36.7% |
32.3 /
25.3 |
| 14 |
@BUF |
27 – 23 W |
-4.8 |
48.0% /
37.5% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
5.4% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
32.1% /
45.2% |
35.7% /
19.4% |
2.8 /
5.7 |
53 /
71 |
37.8% /
38.6% |
39.6% /
40.8% |
38.7% /
39.4% |
4.7 /
5.2 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
52.8% /
43.7% |
47.1 /
27.2 |
| 15 |
HOU |
22 – 29 L |
-3.8 |
48.8% /
44.1% |
7.3% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.0 |
35.5% /
29.4% |
35.5% /
47.1% |
2.9 /
2.8 |
72 /
51 |
40.4% /
46.3% |
43.1% /
39.2% |
34.3% /
74.5% |
4.4 /
5.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
33.3% |
28.5 /
35.6 |
| 16 |
GB |
38 – 44 L |
6.7 |
62.2% /
50.8% |
5.4% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.0 |
35.0% /
65.0% |
35.0% /
15.0% |
2.4 /
6.4 |
57 /
79 |
56.8% /
56.3% |
52.6% /
54.4% |
37.3% /
49.1% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
35.1% /
25.3% |
34.1 /
25.5 |
| 17 |
@NE |
3 – 38 L |
-17.6 |
37.5% /
55.9% |
12.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.2 |
43.5% /
43.3% |
52.2% /
26.7% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
55 /
64 |
45.0% /
54.0% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
54.8% /
29.1% |
4.3 /
5.9 |
5.5% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
46.9% |
28.5 /
30.8 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
New York Jets