Game Analysis
NY JETS (-6.5) vs Buffalo
It looks like we’ll see Derek Anderson square off against Josh McCown in a game featuring the lowest total of 2018. However, the two journeymen are both likely to be upgrades over the quarterbacks they’re replacing. Anderson will be back under center after Nathan Peterman proved once again that he’s the worst quarterback in the modern era of the NFL (he’s averaged just 3.7 yards per pass play in his career with a 9.2% interception rate). McCown will take over for Sam Darnold, who’s played quite poorly as of late and now ranks 3rd-worst in expected points added per play among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts and rushes this season. McCown averaged 6.1 yards per pass play a season ago (18th), and I expect him to be a slight improvement over Darnold.
Despite the predicted uptick in quarterback play, our model still projects just 36.0 points as both defenses rank top 10 in yards per play conceded. Our model has the Jets as 5.9-point favorites in what certainly seems to be the least exciting game of the week – unless you’re 80 years old and love good, old-fashioned, defensive football. I’d lean a bit with Buffalo if this line gets to +7 (-110 odds).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.9
34.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.6%
51.7%
-
Sack Rate
10.4%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
5.9%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.3%
31.9%
-
NYPP
4.7
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.4
27.2
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
29.5%
29.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.0%
39.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.1%
50.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
61.6
-
Early Down Succ
39.2%
49.0%
-
Succ Rate
37.4%
46.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.3%
36.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.1
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
29.9
-
Run Ratio
43.7%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.5
33.1
-
Game Control
-8.2
8.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.2%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
5.2%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.5%
14.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.4%
35.5%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.1
27.4
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
30.1%
27.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.7%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.0%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
41.0%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
38.6%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.2%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.8
-
Run Ratio
46.2%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
31.0
-
Game Control
-0.6
0.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% /
42.5% |
15.4% /
5.0% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
6.3 |
22.7% /
44.1% |
31.8% /
29.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
61 /
74 |
24.4% /
43.3% |
21.3% /
43.2% |
39.9% /
43.1% |
2.5 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.1% /
45.9% |
30.5 /
41.3 |
| 2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% /
65.5% |
13.2% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.3 |
54.5% /
33.3% |
31.8% /
40.7% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
60 /
56 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
43.3% /
50.0% |
59.0% /
44.0% |
4.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
48.2% |
26.7 /
36.5 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
12.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
42.1% /
16.7% |
23.7% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
63 /
65 |
42.9% /
48.0% |
41.3% /
44.6% |
42.1% /
3.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
60.3% /
9.2% |
40.2 /
17.7 |
| 4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% /
47.6% |
17.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
2.5% |
2.2 /
6.7 |
43.8% /
56.3% |
25.0% /
37.5% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
56 /
74 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
51.4% |
31.0% /
49.6% |
2.6 /
5.7 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
43.2% |
27.3 /
27.4 |
| 5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
63.6% /
81.3% |
9.1% /
12.5% |
10.0% /
7.1% |
7.2 /
7.6 |
46.5% /
56.0% |
20.9% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.0 |
54 /
41 |
43.8% /
51.2% |
50.0% /
65.9% |
18.8% /
29.0% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
4.9% |
79.6% /
61.0% |
34.8 /
30.2 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
29.0% /
27.3% |
6.5% /
21.2% |
6.9% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
40.7% /
36.0% |
22.2% /
28.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
58 /
58 |
32.6% /
34.9% |
34.5% /
31.0% |
46.3% /
34.1% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
46.6% /
43.1% |
28.2 /
36.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
5 – 37 L |
-16.0 |
39.4% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
43.9% |
31.8% /
14.6% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
55 /
64 |
48.9% /
53.5% |
43.6% /
48.4% |
39.9% /
53.2% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
64.1% |
22.8 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
NE |
6 – 25 L |
-6.6 |
36.4% /
54.3% |
6.8% /
4.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
33.3% |
35.0% /
18.5% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
64 /
73 |
43.5% /
52.7% |
37.5% /
46.6% |
46.4% /
35.7% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
37.0% |
29.3 /
28.2 |
| 9 |
CHI |
9 – 41 L |
-18.7 |
35.8% /
42.9% |
7.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
5.0% |
3.2 /
6.0 |
28.6% /
39.3% |
42.9% /
28.6% |
3.5 /
2.4 |
81 /
49 |
33.3% /
51.5% |
33.3% /
40.8% |
39.4% /
39.4% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
57.1% |
25.9 /
43.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
32.6% /
37.5% |
9.3% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
68 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
55.1% /
37.9% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
23.5% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
52.9% |
36.8% /
26.5% |
2.2 /
4.1 |
63 /
61 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
49.2% |
50.3% /
36.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
30.2% /
55.7% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
43.3% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
63 /
76 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
39.5% |
22.4% /
32.3% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
46.1% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% /
71.8% |
9.1% /
10.3% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
17.2 /
8.8 |
46.2% /
47.1% |
17.9% /
47.1% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
50 /
56 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
52.0% /
64.3% |
74.5% /
42.2% |
10.3 /
7.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
78.0% /
30.4% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% /
46.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
7.0% |
8.6 /
7.0 |
23.1% /
60.9% |
28.2% /
17.4% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
70 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
42.9% /
51.5% |
41.9% /
32.5% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
| 7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
2.4% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
37.5% /
24.0% |
33.3% /
44.0% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
69 /
66 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
50.2% /
58.0% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
37.9% |
27.3 /
41.4 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% /
45.2% |
3.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
20.8% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
14.7% |
2.4 /
5.3 |
54 /
65 |
30.8% /
51.9% |
29.6% /
49.2% |
20.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
52.3% |
22.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% /
42.9% |
9.3% /
14.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
38.1% /
24.1% |
28.6% /
24.1% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
64 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.9% /
33.3% |
41.8% /
15.3% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
50.9% |
18.4 /
32.4 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
New York Jets