Game Analysis

Lean – NEW ENGLAND (+3.5) over Buffalo

· Josh Allen averaged 0.289 EPA/play the first nine weeks of the season (3rd) but is averaging 0.116 EPA/play since his ulnar collateral ligament injury (16th). Presumably, he will get healthier with more time but it’s safe to say Allen hasn’t been at his best recently.

· Buffalo’s offense has a 44.3% rush success rate (6th) but New England’s defense can shut the running backs down as they are allowing -0.117 EPA/rush (6th). I expect Bill Belichick to be extremely focused on stopping Josh Allen as a runner given the situation with Allen’s elbow.

· Allen ran for 169 yards in three games versus the Patriots last year. Allen has at least 30 rushing yards in all but two games this season and is coming off 78 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

· Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins ranks 22nd in pass blocking efficiency but he is out again this week. Buffalo right tackle Spencer Brown surrendered 6 pressures versus the Lions. New England edge defender Matthew Judon ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and should collapse the pocket against the tackles.

· Patriots CB Jonathan Jones ranks 4th in coverage grade by PFF and he will limit wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (7th).

· Mac Jones is coming off his best game of the season gaining 8.7 yppp in Minnesota.

· New England slot WR Jakobi Meyers is averaging 0.52 EPA/target (5th) and he has a favorable matchup across from Bills nickelback Taron Johnson, who is allowing 1.29 yards per cover snap in slot (7th-worst).

· Buffalo edge defender Gregory Rousseau ranked 8th in pass rushing efficiency before his ankle sprain and he will make his return to the field this week after sitting out since week 9. Edge rusher Von Miller has 45 pressures (8th) but he is out with a lateral meniscus tear.

· Patriots’ rookie LG Cole Strange will struggle versus interior defender Ed Oliver, who has a 12.4% pressure rate.

· Bill Belichick tends to have his defense playing better after a bad performance, as the Patriots are now 35-10 ATS in regular season games after allowing more than 28 points, including 23-2 ATS from -4 to dog and 8-0 ATS without Tom Brady.

· Our model favors the Bills by 3.0 points with a predicted total of 45.9 points. I’ll lean with New England ad +3.5 or more.