Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Buffalo (+2) over NEW ENGLAND

The game in Buffalo three weeks ago is skewing the market’s perception of these teams, but I don’t think there’s much to be gleaned from that night in Buffalo because there was sleet and 30 mph winds. Anyone who watched that Monday night knows it was a unique football situation. The main narrative from that game was the Patriots imposed their will with their ground game and the Bills could not stop them. However, one Damien Harris 64-yard touchdown run is really changing the way people remember the game. New England had just a 39% rush success rate and I do not expect it to get much better this Sunday. Buffalo’s rush defense ranks 3rd according to our metrics and they should contain the explosive runs and force Mac Jones to beat them. The Bills defense ranks second in pressure rate (28.7%) sandwiched between the Panthers and Buccaneers. Jones averaged only 5.8 yppp against Carolina and Tampa Bay this year and will likely struggle in this game.

Josh Allen had only 145 passing yards in week 13’s horrible conditions but I think we’ll see a much different outcome this time, as Allen averaged 8.5 yppp against New England last year.

We favor the Bills by 3 points with a predicted total of 45 points. Buffalo is a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and a 1-Star to -1.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Patriots

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.07 34.50
Succ Pass Plays 50.3% 40.8%
Sack Rate 4.6% 5.6%
Int Rate 2.4% 3.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 13.8%
Big Pass Yards 36.7% 28.9%
NYPP 6.41 5.13

Rush

Rush Plays 25.43 26.79
RB YPR 4.06 4.15
Stuff Rate 23.6% 30.4%
Succ Rush Plays 50.8% 41.9%
Big Rush Yards 45.6% 50.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.75 4.19

Game

All Snaps 65.50 61.29
Early Down Succ 53.0% 44.3%
Succ Rate 50.5% 41.3%
Big Yards Rate 39.5% 36.9%
Yards Per Play 5.76 4.72
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.19 29.21
Run Ratio 38.8% 43.7%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 5.30 -5.30

Points 28.14 17.36

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	16 – 23 L	2.06	44.4% / 44.1%	5.6% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.70 / 5.21	48.0% / 33.3%	16.0% / 42.9%	4.68 / 3.57	79 / 55	47.4% / 42.9%	45.6% / 40.0%	22.7% / 43.0%	4.70 / 4.58	1.3% / 0.0%	31.6% / 38.2%	32.64 / 29.45
2	@MIA	35 – 0 W	18.46	38.2% / 36.0%	2.9% / 12.0%	3.0% / 2.3%	5.03 / 2.90	43.3% / 25.0%	26.7% / 35.0%	4.77 / 3.55	64 / 70	36.0% / 33.3%	40.6% / 32.9%	52.5% / 11.9%	4.91 / 3.09	1.6% / 2.9%	46.9% / 28.6%	31.77 / 33.58
3	WAS	43 – 21 W	13.76	63.6% / 42.3%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 8.0%	8.16 / 9.00	51.5% / 41.7%	24.2% / 29.2%	3.70 / 3.21	77 / 50	59.0% / 47.2%	58.4% / 42.0%	28.3% / 46.0%	6.25 / 6.22	0.0% / 2.0%	42.9% / 48.0%	40.75 / 27.00
4	HST	40 – 0 W	15.47	61.3% / 29.2%	3.2% / 12.5%	3.3% / 19.0%	8.10 / 2.54	62.5% / 27.8%	17.5% / 22.2%	4.98 / 2.67	71 / 42	67.9% / 33.3%	62.0% / 28.6%	45.3% / 16.3%	6.34 / 2.60	0.0% / 2.4%	56.3% / 42.9%	39.17 / 30.92
5	@KC	38 – 20 W	8.36	46.2% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	12.12 / 4.86	50.0% / 56.5%	35.7% / 21.7%	4.32 / 5.22	54 / 79	48.8% / 56.3%	48.1% / 51.9%	64.7% / 18.9%	8.07 / 4.96	0.0% / 1.3%	51.9% / 29.1%	28.50 / 26.40
6	@TEN	31 – 34 L	2.27	54.0% / 44.8%	6.0% / 0.0%	2.1% / 3.4%	6.70 / 7.45	43.5% / 45.5%	21.7% / 31.8%	3.57 / 6.64	73 / 51	52.6% / 45.0%	50.7% / 45.1%	26.4% / 54.7%	5.71 / 7.10	0.0% / 0.0%	31.5% / 43.1%	25.80 / 28.55
8	MIA	26 – 11 W	3.32	46.5% / 39.0%	0.0% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.79 / 4.73	34.8% / 43.5%	39.1% / 26.1%	4.43 / 2.96	66 / 64	42.3% / 44.7%	42.4% / 40.6%	28.2% / 35.5%	5.32 / 4.09	0.0% / 1.6%	34.8% / 35.9%	30.00 / 28.27
9	@JAX	6 – 9 L	-0.59	43.1% / 33.3%	7.8% / 6.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	4.49 / 4.63	35.7% / 33.3%	21.4% / 37.0%	5.14 / 2.93	65 / 57	45.7% / 36.6%	41.5% / 33.3%	29.5% / 33.5%	4.63 / 3.82	1.5% / 1.8%	21.5% / 47.4%	27.67 / 32.90
10	@NYJ	45 – 17 W	18.89	66.7% / 41.7%	6.7% / 2.1%	3.6% / 8.5%	11.67 / 6.17	66.7% / 50.0%	25.0% / 40.9%	5.79 / 3.18	54 / 70	69.6% / 48.1%	66.7% / 44.3%	60.6% / 33.4%	9.06 / 5.23	1.9% / 1.4%	44.4% / 31.4%	33.69 / 25.58
11	IND	15 – 41 L	-15.20	51.2% / 45.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	5.27 / 5.30	69.2% / 65.2%	7.7% / 19.6%	7.00 / 5.74	54 / 66	58.1% / 58.5%	55.6% / 59.1%	27.9% / 43.0%	5.69 / 5.61	0.0% / 0.0%	24.1% / 69.7%	22.56 / 46.56
12	@NO	31 – 6 W	12.57	70.0% / 40.6%	6.7% / 6.3%	7.1% / 3.3%	8.27 / 4.56	50.0% / 16.0%	21.9% / 44.0%	3.53 / 1.76	62 / 57	58.3% / 28.2%	59.7% / 29.8%	42.4% / 16.9%	5.82 / 3.33	0.0% / 0.0%	51.6% / 43.9%	38.50 / 21.45
13	NE	10 – 14 L	-2.88	43.8% / 33.3%	6.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.09 / 6.33	44.0% / 30.4%	16.0% / 37.0%	3.96 / 4.83	57 / 49	51.2% / 34.3%	43.9% / 30.6%	26.2% / 66.4%	4.04 / 4.92	1.8% / 2.0%	43.9% / 93.9%	39.60 / 22.90
14	@TB	27 – 33 L	-10.94	42.1% / 47.9%	5.3% / 4.2%	1.9% / 0.0%	5.14 / 7.31	73.7% / 55.2%	15.8% / 24.1%	9.11 / 4.72	76 / 77	59.6% / 52.5%	50.0% / 50.6%	49.7% / 45.0%	6.13 / 6.34	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 37.7%	25.54 / 23.71
15	CAR	31 – 14 W	8.64	44.7% / 31.0%	10.5% / 9.5%	2.9% / 2.6%	5.08 / 2.95	40.7% / 44.8%	33.3% / 20.7%	4.41 / 5.21	65 / 71	42.9% / 40.4%	43.1% / 36.6%	31.0% / 31.9%	4.80 / 3.87	0.0% / 0.0%	41.5% / 40.8%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIA	16 – 17 L	-3.18	56.4% / 51.7%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	7.21 / 6.38	56.7% / 56.5%	13.3% / 30.4%	4.17 / 3.22	69 / 52	52.8% / 58.5%	56.5% / 53.8%	36.9% / 43.1%	5.88 / 4.98	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 44.2%	27.63 / 25.11
2	@NYJ	25 – 6 W	10.53	36.4% / 35.1%	9.1% / 10.8%	0.0% / 12.1%	4.82 / 4.97	54.2% / 51.6%	20.8% / 29.0%	4.21 / 4.90	57 / 68	50.0% / 45.1%	43.9% / 42.6%	48.1% / 50.0%	4.56 / 4.94	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 45.6%	40.00 / 24.58
3	NO	13 – 28 L	-10.20	35.8% / 50.0%	3.8% / 12.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	4.74 / 4.58	41.2% / 50.0%	23.5% / 18.4%	2.88 / 3.74	70 / 62	37.0% / 53.2%	37.1% / 50.0%	28.8% / 9.3%	4.29 / 4.06	0.0% / 0.0%	24.3% / 61.3%	27.92 / 32.92
4	TB	17 – 19 L	-0.20	54.3% / 40.9%	8.7% / 2.3%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.41 / 5.93	25.0% / 53.3%	75.0% / 23.3%	-0.13 / 3.97	54 / 74	59.5% / 46.3%	50.0% / 45.9%	22.6% / 42.3%	5.44 / 5.14	1.9% / 0.0%	14.8% / 40.5%	29.64 / 25.64
5	@HST	25 – 22 W	-5.14	54.8% / 46.9%	3.2% / 9.4%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.29 / 9.16	56.7% / 20.8%	30.0% / 12.5%	4.20 / 2.79	61 / 56	57.1% / 29.7%	55.7% / 35.7%	38.9% / 47.8%	5.77 / 6.43	1.6% / 1.8%	49.2% / 42.9%	33.33 / 27.22
6	DAL	29 – 35 L	2.00	52.2% / 52.9%	8.7% / 0.0%	4.8% / 2.0%	9.35 / 8.73	51.9% / 35.5%	18.5% / 29.0%	4.44 / 3.94	50 / 82	57.5% / 50.8%	52.0% / 46.3%	56.4% / 39.7%	6.70 / 6.91	2.0% / 1.2%	54.0% / 37.8%	30.38 / 29.00
7	NYJ	54 – 13 W	19.28	54.8% / 52.3%	2.4% / 4.5%	0.0% / 4.8%	9.60 / 5.39	50.0% / 52.9%	31.3% / 17.6%	4.63 / 3.65	74 / 61	50.8% / 55.6%	52.7% / 52.5%	69.8% / 26.3%	7.45 / 4.90	0.0% / 1.6%	43.2% / 27.9%	35.27 / 25.64
8	@LAC	27 – 24 W	-0.77	44.4% / 39.5%	2.8% / 7.9%	0.0% / 5.7%	5.86 / 5.42	59.0% / 40.0%	23.1% / 15.0%	3.62 / 8.15	75 / 58	54.5% / 42.9%	52.0% / 39.7%	28.1% / 46.1%	4.69 / 6.36	1.3% / 0.0%	52.0% / 34.5%	37.18 / 20.25
9	@CAR	24 – 6 W	7.64	35.0% / 32.4%	10.0% / 2.9%	5.6% / 9.1%	6.10 / 4.76	46.2% / 39.1%	23.1% / 17.4%	3.87 / 3.39	59 / 57	41.9% / 38.6%	42.4% / 35.1%	49.7% / 29.6%	4.63 / 4.21	1.7% / 0.0%	66.1% / 40.4%	35.10 / 30.82
10	CLV	45 – 7 W	14.20	64.3% / 39.5%	7.1% / 13.2%	0.0% / 3.0%	9.57 / 3.11	52.9% / 45.0%	26.5% / 20.0%	5.41 / 4.95	62 / 58	55.8% / 51.2%	58.1% / 41.4%	56.7% / 20.9%	7.29 / 3.74	0.0% / 0.0%	54.8% / 34.5%	28.78 / 22.11
11	@ATL	25 – 0 W	9.70	51.7% / 41.7%	10.3% / 11.1%	3.8% / 12.5%	6.00 / 3.47	50.0% / 31.3%	33.3% / 43.8%	4.47 / 2.50	59 / 52	57.8% / 45.9%	50.8% / 38.5%	25.5% / 11.1%	5.22 / 3.17	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 30.8%	33.00 / 21.45
12	TEN	36 – 13 W	7.84	55.9% / 34.8%	5.9% / 8.7%	0.0% / 4.8%	8.50 / 3.70	41.7% / 59.0%	20.8% / 7.7%	4.38 / 6.92	58 / 62	53.2% / 53.2%	50.0% / 50.0%	49.4% / 52.1%	6.79 / 5.73	0.0% / 4.8%	41.4% / 62.9%	40.91 / 23.82
13	@BUF	14 – 10 W	2.88	33.3% / 43.8%	0.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.33 / 4.09	30.4% / 44.0%	37.0% / 16.0%	4.83 / 3.96	49 / 57	34.3% / 51.2%	30.6% / 43.9%	66.4% / 26.2%	4.92 / 4.04	2.0% / 1.8%	93.9% / 43.9%	22.90 / 39.60
15	@IND	17 – 27 L	-11.85	47.8% / 30.8%	2.2% / 7.7%	4.4% / 8.3%	6.17 / 3.77	47.4% / 59.0%	26.3% / 20.5%	4.26 / 5.79	65 / 52	51.1% / 56.4%	47.7% / 51.9%	34.5% / 56.9%	5.62 / 5.29	0.0% / 0.0%	29.2% / 75.0%	0.00 / 0.00

Buffalo Bills @

New England Patriots

Sun, Dec 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis