Buffalo Bills @

Miami Dolphins

Sat, Sep 18
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 277
Odds: Miami Dolphins +3.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Buffalo (-3.5) vs MIAMI

I’m mostly giving Buffalo’s offense a pass for averaging only 4.7 yards per play in week 1. The game was played in the worst conditions for scoring in this league due to high winds, and the Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, it won’t get much easier for the Bills this week. Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders averaged just 5.5 yards per target and now face one of the league’s best cornerback tandems Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.

Miami’s offense was also less than impressive as Tua Tagovailoa completed only three passes beyond 10 yards downfield. Every starting Dolphins offensive lineman surrendered at least one pressure and RT Jesse Davis particularly could be in trouble in this matchup as edge defender Jerry Hughes ranked 6th in pass rushing efficiency last year.

DeVante Parker led Miami in receiving last week but will be limited on Sunday by Pro Bowl CB Tre’Davious White. Will Fuller, who averaged 2.28 yards per route run in 2020, will miss another game, making it even tougher on  Tagovailoa.

Our model favors the Bills by 3.1 points with a predicted total of 47.0 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Dolphins
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 54.0 34.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 44.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.6% 5.9%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 13.7% 37.2%
  • NYPP 5.0 5.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.0 21.0
  • RB YPR 4.6 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 16.0% 42.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.0% 33.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.6% 57.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.7 3.6




Game

  • All Snaps 79.0 55.0
  • Early Down Succ 47.4% 42.9%
  • Succ Rate 45.6% 40.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 22.7% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.0 29.3
  • Run Ratio 31.6% 38.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 2.1 -2.1
 
  • Points 16.0 23.0
Share This