Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Buffalo (-6) vs MIAMI

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 4.4 yards per pass play in his first start without rookie wide receiver Preston Williams, who leads the team in yards per route run. Buffalo’s pass defense ranks 11th by our numbers and I expect the Dolphins to avoid this strong secondary. The Bills rank 30th in rush defense but the Dolphins’ running duties have fallen to Kalen Ballage (just 2.1 ypr on 55 runs) with Mark Walton continuing to serve his 4-game suspension, so Miami is unlikely to expose the Bills’ defensive weakness.

Buffalo’s ground game ranks 5th but Miami linebacker Raekwon McMillan leads the NFL with a 13.7% run stop rate and the Dolphins’ defense is definitely more vulnerable through the air. The Dolphins are without top cornerback Xavien Howard, resulting in a favorable matchup on the outside for John Brown, who is gaining 2.02 yards per route run (15th). Cole Beasley has 43 targets in the slot (8th-most) and he should be effective on Sunday as Miami’s nickelbacks have combined to concede 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot this season.

The Bills won the previous meeting between these teams by 10 points but that margin was deceptive as Buffalo returned an onside kick for a touchdown at the end of the game. Josh Allen probably had his best game of the year against Miami in week 7 and the Bills will need him to perform well again in this game. Our model makes Buffalo a 5.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.8 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Dolphins

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.9 36.0
Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 42.2%
Sack Rate 7.2% 7.7%
Int Rate 2.3% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 22.2% 12.0%
Big Pass Yards 46.7% 30.7%
NYPP 6.0 5.3

Rush

Rush Plays 27.3 25.6
RB YPR 4.6 4.6
Stuff Rate 18.5% 26.3%
Succ Rush Plays 51.6% 48.4%
Big Rush Yards 42.2% 54.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.5

Game

All Snaps 63.2 61.6
Early Down Succ 51.9% 47.5%
Succ Rate 47.5% 44.2%
Big Yards Rate 44.6% 40.5%
Yards Per Play 5.3 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 29.2
Run Ratio 43.3% 41.6%
Starting Field Pos 28.5 28.0
Game Control 0.5 -0.5

Points 19.3 16.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYJ	17 – 16 W	-7.1	55.3% / 42.2%	2.6% / 8.9%	5.4% / 0.0%	6.4 / 3.4	48.0% / 52.4%	20.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.2	63 / 66	54.9% / 46.8%	52.4% / 45.5%	50.0% / 9.9%	5.9 / 3.4	3.2% / 1.5%	39.7% / 31.8%	22.9 / 28.4
2	@NYG	28 – 14 W	8.9	42.4% / 45.7%	9.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	7.2 / 5.2	58.8% / 70.0%	17.6% / 5.0%	4.4 / 6.5	67 / 66	55.8% / 59.6%	50.7% / 53.0%	32.7% / 38.9%	5.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 30.3%	24.8 / 28.5
3	CIN	21 – 17 W	6.7	45.9% / 44.7%	2.7% / 5.3%	2.8% / 5.6%	6.5 / 6.3	55.6% / 36.8%	19.4% / 31.6%	4.9 / 3.5	73 / 57	55.2% / 46.7%	50.7% / 42.1%	40.6% / 52.9%	5.7 / 5.4	1.4% / 3.5%	49.3% / 33.3%	29.6 / 30.5
4	NE	10 – 16 L	-7.9	36.7% / 20.5%	10.2% / 0.0%	9.1% / 2.6%	4.9 / 3.8	50.0% / 47.8%	13.6% / 17.4%	6.1 / 3.2	71 / 62	47.3% / 33.3%	40.8% / 30.6%	46.9% / 32.1%	5.3 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 37.1%	29.9 / 27.1
5	@TEN	14 – 7 W	2.4	47.2% / 40.7%	11.1% / 18.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.6	55.6% / 40.7%	14.8% / 25.9%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 54	58.7% / 45.0%	50.8% / 40.7%	34.5% / 52.0%	5.0 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 50.0%	30.0 / 23.3
7	MIA	31 – 21 W	0.6	50.0% / 55.6%	7.1% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.7 / 7.6	52.2% / 50.0%	13.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.6	51 / 66	55.0% / 52.0%	51.0% / 53.0%	61.3% / 45.9%	6.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.5%	45.1% / 45.5%	30.2 / 25.5
8	PHI	13 – 31 L	-5.2	31.6% / 48.1%	10.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.1 / 5.7	50.0% / 48.8%	35.0% / 29.3%	4.9 / 5.3	58 / 68	39.0% / 50.0%	37.9% / 48.5%	44.3% / 57.7%	4.4 / 5.5	1.7% / 1.5%	34.5% / 60.3%	29.4 / 36.4
9	WAS	24 – 9 W	8.5	45.5% / 34.6%	9.1% / 15.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.5	53.8% / 34.8%	17.9% / 30.4%	3.1 / 5.5	61 / 49	54.5% / 40.5%	50.8% / 34.7%	48.9% / 42.8%	4.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	63.9% / 46.9%	34.9 / 27.3
10	@CLE	16 – 19 L	-2.5	42.9% / 47.5%	2.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 5.5	40.0% / 53.8%	15.0% / 30.8%	4.2 / 5.7	62 / 66	46.8% / 53.8%	41.9% / 50.0%	42.4% / 32.1%	5.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 39.4%	24.5 / 24.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BAL	10 – 59 L	-32.5	37.1% / 74.1%	8.6% / 3.7%	6.3% / 0.0%	5.1 / 14.0	33.3% / 58.7%	50.0% / 13.0%	1.8 / 5.8	47 / 73	37.8% / 65.5%	36.2% / 64.4%	48.5% / 66.7%	4.3 / 8.8	2.1% / 0.0%	25.5% / 63.0%	22.6 / 31.6
2	NE	0 – 43 L	-16.0	28.3% / 60.0%	15.2% / 6.7%	10.3% / 0.0%	3.1 / 8.5	33.3% / 60.0%	33.3% / 14.3%	2.8 / 3.6	61 / 65	33.3% / 62.3%	29.5% / 60.0%	13.0% / 28.6%	3.0 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.5%	24.6% / 53.8%	27.9 / 33.5
3	@DAL	6 – 31 L	-11.1	40.9% / 48.5%	6.8% / 3.0%	0.0% / 3.1%	4.8 / 7.3	37.5% / 67.6%	29.2% / 2.9%	3.0 / 6.9	68 / 67	46.0% / 60.7%	39.7% / 58.2%	31.4% / 56.9%	4.2 / 7.1	1.5% / 0.0%	35.3% / 50.7%	28.7 / 26.1
4	LAC	10 – 30 L	-6.4	48.3% / 71.9%	17.2% / 3.1%	4.2% / 0.0%	5.6 / 9.7	55.6% / 39.4%	22.2% / 21.2%	4.0 / 2.4	47 / 65	52.8% / 57.1%	51.1% / 55.4%	34.3% / 23.1%	5.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 50.8%	25.0 / 31.8
6	WAS	16 – 17 L	-6.1	33.3% / 40.0%	10.4% / 0.0%	4.7% / 0.0%	3.9 / 6.6	52.4% / 45.5%	19.0% / 18.2%	4.0 / 4.4	69 / 58	42.3% / 50.0%	39.1% / 43.1%	28.0% / 42.8%	3.9 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	30.4% / 56.9%	28.3 / 27.3
7	@BUF	21 – 31 L	-0.6	55.6% / 50.0%	2.8% / 7.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.7	50.0% / 52.2%	33.3% / 13.0%	3.6 / 5.1	66 / 51	52.0% / 55.0%	53.0% / 51.0%	45.9% / 61.3%	5.8 / 6.0	1.5% / 0.0%	45.5% / 45.1%	25.5 / 30.2
8	@PIT	14 – 27 L	3.2	39.5% / 36.8%	10.5% / 5.3%	5.9% / 2.8%	4.5 / 6.2	36.8% / 48.3%	10.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 5.4	57 / 67	41.3% / 41.5%	38.6% / 41.8%	0.0% / 51.8%	4.0 / 5.9	3.5% / 0.0%	33.3% / 43.3%	33.5 / 31.3
9	NYJ	26 – 18 W	4.5	50.0% / 50.0%	10.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 5.7	33.3% / 42.9%	37.5% / 23.8%	2.1 / 4.0	64 / 63	44.0% / 50.0%	43.8% / 47.6%	23.4% / 26.8%	4.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 33.3%	31.2 / 30.7
10	@IND	16 – 12 W	4.1	36.1% / 37.5%	8.3% / 2.5%	3.0% / 7.7%	4.4 / 4.8	26.9% / 41.4%	38.5% / 31.0%	2.7 / 3.8	62 / 69	30.2% / 41.5%	32.3% / 39.1%	22.7% / 55.0%	3.7 / 4.3	1.6% / 0.0%	41.9% / 42.0%	33.4 / 32.5

Buffalo Bills @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 17

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis