Buffalo Bills @

Los Angeles Rams

Thu, Sep 8
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: Los Angeles Rams +2.5, Total: 52

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – (452) LOS ANGELES RAMS (+2.5) over Buffalo

Lean – Over 52.5

· We have the Bills rated as the best team in the NFL this year, but this price is too high versus the Super Bowl Champs in a good spot at home and this game should be a pick ’em.

· West coast teams are 38-17 straight up and 32-22-1 ATS against east coast teams on Sunday/Monday night football since 1989 due to the timezone benefit. It is much better for a player’s internal clock in the second half to be at 7pm than 10pm for peak performance. We saw Baltimore blow a 14-point lead down the stretch in Las Vegas last year to open the season.

· Wide Receiver Allen Robinson should be a solid addition to the Los Angeles offense after a tough season last year in Chicago averaging just 6.2 yards per target. Matt Stafford has consistently shown the ability to elevate WRs throughout his career and Robinson certainly has the ability to be Pro Bowl-caliber as he averaged 2.06 yards per route run in 2020 (12th) despite the Bears ranking 26th in yppp.

· The Rams offensive line will likely take a step back after the retirement of LT Andrew Whitworth (5th in pass blocking efficiency last year).

· Los Angeles lost edge defender Von Miller (16th in pass rushing efficiency) this offseason, but added another perennial All-Pro to the defense with LB Bobby Wagner joining DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey.

· Nickelback Troy Hill is back with the Rams after spending last year in Cleveland. Hill conceded only 1.03 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) during his last season with LA in 2020 and he should replace the production of CB Darious Williams (now in Jacksonville).

· I expect the Bills to finish near the top of the league in scoring, but they did lose offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and there’s a risk with first-time play callers like Ken Dorsey.

· WR Gabriel Davis led last year’s Bills with 2.03 yards per route run and he will likely see a huge uptick in targets after the departure of Emmanuel Sanders.

· Von Miller coming into Buffalo should be able to replace the 80 pressures going out the door with edge rushers Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. 

· The Bills allowed a league-low 18.3 points per game in 2021 but our metrics show that was a bit flattering due to weather. The scoring conditions in Buffalo’s games last season were 1.2 points worse than average.

· Bills CB Tre’Davious White made back to back Pro Bowls in 2019 and 2020 before tearing his ACL last year and he will start the season on the PUP list.

· Our model favors the Bills by 0.1 with a predicted total of 54.1.

Rams are a Strong Opinion at +2 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Rams
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 54.00 34.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 44.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.6% 5.9%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 13.7% 37.2%
  • NYPP 4.70 5.21



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.00 21.00
  • RB YPR 4.56 3.35
  • Stuff Rate 16.0% 42.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.0% 33.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.6% 57.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.68 3.57




Game

  • All Snaps 79.00 55.00
  • Early Down Succ 47.4% 42.9%
  • Succ Rate 45.6% 40.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 22.7% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.70 4.58
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 24.99 29.35
  • Run Ratio 31.6% 38.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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