Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Over (54) Buffalo vs KANSAS CITY (-1.5)

Player Props (Strong Opinions)

J. Allen (Buff) Over 53 Rushing Yards at 56 or less

P. Mahomes (KC) Over 26 Rushing Yards at 28 or less

Demarcus Robinson (KC) Over 21.5 Receiving Yards at 22 or less

Andy Reid has always started with great play scripts but this season he’s been more brilliant than usual as Kansas City’s offense is averaging nearly double (+4.5) expected points added than any other team in the NFL during the first 15 plays of the game. The Chiefs struggled early in the season with two-high coverages but It seems that Reid has come up with some solutions to the problem by creating space for receivers to run underneath. Kansas City’s offense had 269 yards after the catch against the Steelers, which was the 2nd-highest for a playoff team during the last five seasons.

The Bills lost their best defensive player CB Tre’Davious White on Thanksgiving and have faced Mac Jones (x3), Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Zach Wilson since backup Dane Jackson took over the starting job. It’s fair to say the Buccaneers are the only elite passing offense they’ve gone against without White and Brady averaged 7.3 yppp against Buffalo. The Bills know that they can’t let Tyreek Hill beat them and the Pro Bowl WR averaged less than 5 yards per target versus Buffalo earlier this season. Hill lines up on the inside on 53% of his routes and Bills nickelback Taron Johnson is conceding only 0.99 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th). Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle have all had more than half their targets in the slot this season. This game sets up nicely on the outside with Jackson lining up across from Kansas City WR Demarcus Robinson, coming off a season-high 76 yards last week.

Chiefs LG Joe Thuney leads all 57 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency while rookie RG Trey Smith ranks 41st and he will struggle versus Buffalo interior defender Ed Oliver, who had 40 pressures (18th). Furthermore, the Bills are generating 61% of their edge pressures on the right side of opposing offensive lines and Kansas City backup RT Andrew Wylie has an 8.5% pressure rate allowed. Buffalo edge defenders Jerry Hughes and Gregory Rousseau along with Oliver will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to have enough time in the pocket to look downfield.

The Bills scored a touchdown on every possession against the Patriots barring kneel downs and Josh Allen’s willingness to get involved in the ground game during the postseason makes a huge difference for the offense. Allen leads the NFL with 6.5 yards per rush (min. 50 carries) but was more risk averse in the regular season to avoid injury.

Kansas City’s best defensive player DT Chris Jones has 65 pressures (3rd) but Buffalo’s interior offensive line is much better without Cody Ford on the field. Buffalo ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency in the 11 games without Ford in the starting lineup compared to 27th with him.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.4 points, with a predicted total of 57.5, but that doesn’t take into account that Allen tends to run more than usual, which adds to the Bills’ offense. The season to date ratings peg the Bills as the better team (playoff ratings are influenced more significantly by the prior ratings). In this case, Kansas City was expected to be the best team in the league this season and Buffalo has been the best team in the league based on our forward looking metrics.

The Over is the play we’re making, as the season to date model projects 57.5 points and would probably be higher if these teams didn’t take their foot of the pedal in some of the blowout wins. Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 54.5 or better.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Chiefs

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.22 34.11
Succ Pass Plays 50.3% 39.1%
Sack Rate 3.8% 7.3%
Int Rate 2.4% 3.5%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 14.6%
Big Pass Yards 34.7% 30.4%
NYPP 6.50 4.90

Rush

Rush Plays 27.22 25.61
RB YPR 4.07 4.13
Stuff Rate 23.3% 28.9%
Succ Rush Plays 52.9% 43.6%
Big Rush Yards 46.4% 49.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.86 4.24

Game

All Snaps 66.44 59.72
Early Down Succ 53.2% 44.4%
Succ Rate 51.3% 41.0%
Big Yards Rate 38.6% 37.6%
Yards Per Play 5.83 4.62
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.61 28.89
Run Ratio 41.0% 42.9%
Starting Field Pos 31.85 28.69
Game Control 6.31 -6.31

Points 29.44 17.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	16 – 23 L	2.06	44.4% / 44.1%	5.6% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.70 / 5.21	48.0% / 33.3%	16.0% / 42.9%	4.68 / 3.57	79 / 55	47.4% / 42.9%	45.6% / 40.0%	22.7% / 43.0%	4.70 / 4.58	1.3% / 0.0%	31.6% / 38.2%	32.64 / 29.45
2	@MIA	35 – 0 W	18.46	38.2% / 36.0%	2.9% / 12.0%	3.0% / 2.3%	5.03 / 2.90	43.3% / 25.0%	26.7% / 35.0%	4.77 / 3.55	64 / 70	36.0% / 33.3%	40.6% / 32.9%	52.5% / 11.9%	4.91 / 3.09	1.6% / 2.9%	46.9% / 28.6%	31.77 / 33.58
3	WAS	43 – 21 W	13.76	63.6% / 42.3%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 8.0%	8.16 / 9.00	51.5% / 41.7%	24.2% / 29.2%	3.70 / 3.21	77 / 50	59.0% / 47.2%	58.4% / 42.0%	28.3% / 46.0%	6.25 / 6.22	0.0% / 2.0%	42.9% / 48.0%	40.75 / 27.00
4	HST	40 – 0 W	15.47	61.3% / 29.2%	3.2% / 12.5%	3.3% / 19.0%	8.10 / 2.54	62.5% / 27.8%	17.5% / 22.2%	4.98 / 2.67	71 / 42	67.9% / 33.3%	62.0% / 28.6%	45.3% / 16.3%	6.34 / 2.60	0.0% / 2.4%	56.3% / 42.9%	39.17 / 30.92
5	@KC	38 – 20 W	8.36	46.2% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	12.12 / 4.86	50.0% / 56.5%	35.7% / 21.7%	4.32 / 5.22	54 / 79	48.8% / 56.3%	48.1% / 51.9%	64.7% / 18.9%	8.07 / 4.96	0.0% / 1.3%	51.9% / 29.1%	28.50 / 26.40
6	@TEN	31 – 34 L	2.27	54.0% / 44.8%	6.0% / 0.0%	2.1% / 3.4%	6.70 / 7.45	43.5% / 45.5%	21.7% / 31.8%	3.57 / 6.64	73 / 51	52.6% / 45.0%	50.7% / 45.1%	26.4% / 54.7%	5.71 / 7.10	0.0% / 0.0%	31.5% / 43.1%	25.80 / 28.55
8	MIA	26 – 11 W	3.32	46.5% / 39.0%	0.0% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.79 / 4.73	34.8% / 43.5%	39.1% / 26.1%	4.43 / 2.96	66 / 64	42.3% / 44.7%	42.4% / 40.6%	28.2% / 35.5%	5.32 / 4.09	0.0% / 1.6%	34.8% / 35.9%	30.00 / 28.27
9	@JAX	6 – 9 L	-0.59	43.1% / 33.3%	7.8% / 6.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	4.49 / 4.63	35.7% / 33.3%	21.4% / 37.0%	5.14 / 2.93	65 / 57	45.7% / 36.6%	41.5% / 33.3%	29.5% / 33.5%	4.63 / 3.82	1.5% / 1.8%	21.5% / 47.4%	27.67 / 32.90
10	@NYJ	45 – 17 W	18.89	66.7% / 41.7%	6.7% / 2.1%	3.6% / 8.5%	11.67 / 6.17	66.7% / 50.0%	25.0% / 40.9%	5.79 / 3.18	54 / 70	69.6% / 48.1%	66.7% / 44.3%	60.6% / 33.4%	9.06 / 5.23	1.9% / 1.4%	44.4% / 31.4%	33.69 / 25.58
11	IND	15 – 41 L	-15.20	51.2% / 45.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	5.27 / 5.30	69.2% / 65.2%	7.7% / 19.6%	7.00 / 5.74	54 / 66	58.1% / 58.5%	55.6% / 59.1%	27.9% / 43.0%	5.69 / 5.61	0.0% / 0.0%	24.1% / 69.7%	22.56 / 46.56
12	@NO	31 – 6 W	12.57	70.0% / 40.6%	6.7% / 6.3%	7.1% / 3.3%	8.27 / 4.56	50.0% / 16.0%	21.9% / 44.0%	3.53 / 1.76	62 / 57	58.3% / 28.2%	59.7% / 29.8%	42.4% / 16.9%	5.82 / 3.33	0.0% / 0.0%	51.6% / 43.9%	38.50 / 21.45
13	NE	10 – 14 L	-2.88	43.8% / 33.3%	6.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.09 / 6.33	44.0% / 30.4%	16.0% / 37.0%	3.96 / 4.83	57 / 49	51.2% / 34.3%	43.9% / 30.6%	26.2% / 66.4%	4.04 / 4.92	1.8% / 2.0%	43.9% / 93.9%	39.60 / 22.90
14	@TB	27 – 33 L	-10.94	42.1% / 47.9%	5.3% / 4.2%	1.9% / 0.0%	5.14 / 7.31	73.7% / 55.2%	15.8% / 24.1%	9.11 / 4.72	76 / 77	59.6% / 52.5%	50.0% / 50.6%	49.7% / 45.0%	6.13 / 6.34	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 37.7%	25.54 / 23.71
15	CAR	31 – 14 W	8.64	44.7% / 31.0%	10.5% / 9.5%	2.9% / 2.6%	5.08 / 2.95	40.7% / 44.8%	33.3% / 20.7%	4.41 / 5.21	65 / 71	42.9% / 40.4%	43.1% / 36.6%	31.0% / 31.9%	4.80 / 3.87	0.0% / 0.0%	41.5% / 40.8%	33.42 / 31.82
16	@NE	33 – 21 W	6.31	57.4% / 33.3%	0.0% / 3.0%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.68 / 4.21	53.6% / 59.3%	25.0% / 18.5%	4.07 / 5.52	75 / 60	55.9% / 47.7%	56.0% / 45.0%	20.3% / 37.8%	5.71 / 4.80	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 45.0%	32.33 / 20.25
17	ATL	29 – 15 W	5.92	37.0% / 39.3%	3.7% / 17.9%	11.5% / 0.0%	4.37 / 6.04	63.6% / 68.2%	13.6% / 22.7%	5.30 / 4.36	71 / 50	52.6% / 65.8%	53.5% / 52.0%	29.7% / 41.6%	4.94 / 5.30	0.0% / 2.0%	62.0% / 44.0%	32.63 / 32.89
18	NYJ	27 – 10 W	6.91	39.1% / 13.8%	0.0% / 31.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.52 / 0.17	42.4% / 29.4%	39.4% / 41.2%	5.03 / 2.82	79 / 46	40.0% / 25.9%	40.5% / 19.6%	39.0% / 51.9%	5.32 / 1.15	0.0% / 0.0%	41.8% / 37.0%	30.07 / 31.23
19	NE	47 – 17 W	20.19	72.0% / 41.5%	0.0% / 7.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	12.32 / 5.27	72.4% / 40.0%	13.8% / 10.0%	6.00 / 4.45	54 / 61	70.2% / 34.1%	72.2% / 41.0%	50.8% / 36.4%	8.93 / 5.00	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 32.8%	28.63 / 23.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLV	33 – 29 W	-5.25	60.5% / 60.0%	5.3% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	8.53 / 10.13	56.5% / 76.0%	21.7% / 8.0%	3.17 / 6.12	61 / 55	57.4% / 72.7%	59.0% / 67.3%	36.3% / 48.3%	6.51 / 8.31	0.0% / 1.8%	37.7% / 45.5%	34.78 / 20.78
2	@BLT	35 – 36 L	5.68	64.5% / 59.3%	0.0% / 3.7%	3.2% / 7.7%	11.06 / 8.52	50.0% / 68.3%	22.2% / 17.1%	3.44 / 6.12	49 / 68	65.1% / 66.1%	59.2% / 64.7%	43.7% / 48.6%	8.27 / 7.07	2.0% / 0.0%	36.7% / 60.3%	24.00 / 29.18
3	LAC	24 – 30 L	-3.88	54.3% / 53.8%	4.3% / 2.6%	4.5% / 0.0%	5.46 / 7.05	70.0% / 40.9%	3.3% / 27.3%	6.20 / 3.50	76 / 61	61.5% / 52.1%	60.5% / 49.2%	31.6% / 32.1%	5.75 / 5.77	2.6% / 0.0%	39.5% / 36.1%	25.50 / 27.70
4	@PHI	42 – 30 W	4.73	77.4% / 52.9%	3.2% / 5.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	8.74 / 7.02	71.9% / 68.4%	6.3% / 10.5%	6.25 / 5.42	63 / 70	73.1% / 61.1%	74.6% / 57.1%	47.7% / 32.4%	7.48 / 6.59	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 27.1%	25.63 / 27.75
5	BUF	20 – 38 L	-8.36	50.0% / 46.2%	3.6% / 0.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.86 / 12.12	56.5% / 50.0%	21.7% / 35.7%	5.22 / 4.32	79 / 54	56.3% / 48.8%	51.9% / 48.1%	18.9% / 64.7%	4.96 / 8.07	1.3% / 0.0%	29.1% / 51.9%	26.40 / 28.50
6	@WAS	31 – 13 W	4.72	54.0% / 38.5%	6.0% / 0.0%	4.3% / 2.6%	7.80 / 4.67	46.4% / 63.2%	21.4% / 10.5%	3.89 / 4.95	78 / 58	49.1% / 45.5%	51.3% / 46.6%	40.7% / 23.6%	6.40 / 4.76	1.3% / 1.7%	35.9% / 32.8%	34.55 / 23.92
7	@TEN	3 – 27 L	-17.81	52.7% / 65.5%	7.3% / 3.4%	2.0% / 3.6%	4.67 / 9.17	76.9% / 48.6%	23.1% / 22.9%	5.92 / 2.94	68 / 64	62.3% / 54.9%	57.4% / 56.3%	31.2% / 38.9%	4.91 / 5.77	2.9% / 0.0%	19.1% / 54.7%	19.56 / 28.33
8	NYG	20 – 17 W	2.21	48.0% / 44.4%	4.0% / 8.3%	2.1% / 3.0%	5.22 / 6.33	63.0% / 50.0%	22.2% / 20.0%	3.96 / 3.60	77 / 56	55.4% / 52.5%	53.2% / 46.4%	12.0% / 47.3%	4.78 / 5.36	1.3% / 0.0%	35.1% / 35.7%	35.00 / 21.73
9	GB	13 – 7 W	8.47	36.8% / 31.4%	2.6% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.21 / 5.11	44.0% / 48.0%	36.0% / 16.0%	3.08 / 4.88	63 / 60	40.4% / 42.2%	39.7% / 38.3%	23.9% / 29.2%	3.76 / 5.02	0.0% / 1.7%	39.7% / 41.7%	28.64 / 24.22
10	@LV	41 – 14 W	8.87	56.9% / 54.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.27 / 6.73	48.0% / 35.7%	24.0% / 21.4%	3.76 / 3.57	76 / 51	50.0% / 57.5%	53.9% / 49.0%	40.7% / 51.4%	6.79 / 5.86	0.0% / 3.9%	32.9% / 27.5%	30.00 / 26.40
11	DAL	19 – 9 W	9.92	42.5% / 39.6%	7.5% / 10.4%	2.7% / 4.7%	6.10 / 4.04	50.0% / 37.5%	23.1% / 18.8%	4.85 / 5.13	66 / 64	50.0% / 41.7%	45.5% / 39.1%	45.1% / 10.4%	5.61 / 4.31	1.5% / 1.6%	39.4% / 25.0%	28.00 / 29.17
13	DEN	22 – 9 W	8.43	40.0% / 46.3%	3.3% / 2.4%	3.4% / 5.0%	5.93 / 6.10	54.2% / 54.8%	20.8% / 19.4%	3.71 / 4.97	54 / 72	47.6% / 55.8%	46.3% / 50.0%	36.3% / 30.4%	4.94 / 5.61	0.0% / 1.4%	44.4% / 43.1%	34.00 / 22.90
14	LV	48 – 9 W	24.68	63.0% / 49.0%	11.1% / 8.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	8.89 / 5.02	33.3% / 50.0%	33.3% / 8.3%	4.40 / 3.67	57 / 61	43.9% / 51.1%	47.4% / 49.2%	49.7% / 0.0%	6.53 / 4.75	0.0% / 6.6%	52.6% / 19.7%	31.00 / 23.40
15	@LAC	34 – 28 W	1.29	56.3% / 43.6%	2.1% / 0.0%	2.1% / 2.6%	8.54 / 6.05	35.0% / 66.7%	40.0% / 10.3%	4.30 / 4.92	68 / 78	50.0% / 58.3%	50.0% / 55.1%	55.6% / 28.7%	7.29 / 5.49	1.5% / 1.3%	29.4% / 50.0%	21.64 / 41.30
16	PIT	10 – 36 L	18.91	59.4% / 46.7%	6.3% / 4.4%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.94 / 3.84	62.9% / 56.0%	22.9% / 20.0%	3.63 / 5.20	67 / 70	66.7% / 52.8%	61.2% / 50.0%	24.4% / 22.5%	5.69 / 4.33	0.0% / 2.9%	52.2% / 35.7%	41.00 / 26.64
17	@CIN	31 – 34 L	4.87	57.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.40 / 9.43	78.3% / 42.1%	8.7% / 26.3%	6.74 / 3.16	58 / 63	67.4% / 51.0%	65.5% / 47.6%	54.8% / 51.0%	7.14 / 7.54	0.0% / 0.0%	39.7% / 30.2%	25.56 / 23.44
18	@DEN	28 – 24 W	-0.39	46.7% / 42.3%	2.2% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.67 / 6.65	58.6% / 53.6%	20.7% / 21.4%	4.66 / 6.82	74 / 54	49.2% / 46.3%	51.4% / 48.1%	30.1% / 54.7%	5.27 / 6.74	0.0% / 1.9%	39.2% / 51.9%	24.00 / 24.75
19	PIT	42 – 21 W	10.97	51.2% / 50.0%	7.0% / 4.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	8.65 / 4.37	59.1% / 50.0%	31.8% / 30.0%	4.82 / 2.80	65 / 66	52.9% / 51.1%	53.8% / 50.0%	67.2% / 8.1%	7.35 / 3.89	1.5% / 1.5%	33.8% / 30.3%	35.17 / 23.17

Buffalo Bills @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Jan 23

3:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis