Game Analysis

Buffalo (-1) vs HOUSTON

• Buffalo’s defense matched Baltimore’s heavy personnel packages with Base on 42% of snaps last week, despite missing both starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, and the Ravens averaged 7.1 yppl on those plays. The Bills should have Bernard back in uniform this week which will make it harder for Houston’s offense to bully them.
• Buffalo’s defense will also likely get back starting nickelback Taron Johnson, whose backup Cam Lewis is surrendering 1.94 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 32nd out of 33 qualifying nickelbacks.
• Bills edge defender Von Miller has 3.0 sacks (13th) but has been suspended 4 games and is worth a half point to Buffalo’s defense.
• The Bills use two-high safeties on 72.9% of snaps (2nd-most) but the rate could be affected by the likely absence of S Taylor Rapp. Houston’s offense versus two-high has a yards per pass play just 84% of their yards per pass play against single-high safety coverages (28th).
• CJ Stroud hit Texans WR Nico Collins for 12 receptions and 150 yards last week, but the connection will be contained by Buffalo’s outside cornerbacks on Sunday. CB Christian Beneford has a league-high 76% separation prevention rate and CB Rasul Douglas is conceding only a 9% target rate (4th).
• Houston LG Kenyon Green ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency but he gets a break this week with DT Ed Oliver out this week.
• The Texans have a 10.7% sack rate (5th) which will drop in this matchup against Josh Allen, who has just a 4.7% sack rate (6th).
• Houston edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have combined for 34 pressures, but they will be limited by Buffalo’s tackles. RT Spencer Brown and LT Dion Dawkins, who rank 7th and 16^th, respectively, in pass block efficiency.
• The Texans are conceding a league-low 22% success rate to opposing tight ends and they will likely limit TE Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (5th). Houston’s defense also won’t have to worry about Bills’ WR Khalil Shakir, who is out this week.
• Our model favors the Bills by 0.2 points with a predicted total of 47.2 points.