Game Analysis

Note: Denver is now -1 at most books but the Broncos are still a Strong Opinion at -1 -110 odds or better.

Strong Opinion – DENVER (+1) over Buffalo

Strong Opinion – Bo Nix (DEN) Longest Completion Over 33.5 yards (-120) to -130 odds

• Denver’s defense conceded just a 7.7% explosive play rate, the 4th-lowest since 2010.  The Broncos are the 3rd defense in the last five seasons to concede fewer than 5.0 yards per play in man coverage while running it at least 35% of the time. Most of the man coverage is Cover 1, which the Broncos call at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.
• The Bills do not have the talent at wide receiver to beat Cover 1 with only three healthy wide receivers on the roster: Khalil Shakir, a guy who joined the team 6 weeks ago, and a guy who was benched four times this season. Buffalo’s yppp against Cover 1 is just 90% of its yppp versus other coverages (26th), and their receivers will not be able to get open versus Denver’s Cover 1.
• The matchup gets worse for Josh Allen when you consider the other aspects of the Broncos’ defense. Denver has a 39% blitz rate (5th-highest) and ranks 5th relatively against play action compared to standard dropbacks. The Bills have a 31% play action rate (3rd-highest) and rank 26th relatively against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush.
• Denver’s pass rush is headlined by edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, who have two of the fastest first steps in football, ranking 4th and 6th, respectively.
• Broncos’ interior defenders Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers rank 2nd and 9th, respectively, in pass rushing efficiency.
• Denver is just the 9th defense this century to have a sack rate above 10%. The Broncos led the NFL averaging 4.0 sacks per game. Defensive line play is crucial to postseason success, with teams averaging 3 or more sacks in the regular season being 45-26-1 ATS in the playoffs when not laying 7 points or more.
• Josh Allen will be limited as a passer, and it’s not like the Broncos give you much on the ground either. Denver’s defense allowed only a 36.3% rush success rate (2nd).
• Meanwhile, the Broncos’ ground game has a favorable matchup against Buffalo’s defense coming off a game where they allowed 6.7 yards per carry in Jacksonville. The Bills surrendered 0.05 EPA/rush this season (31st), and Denver’s offensive line blocked for 1.5 yards before contact per rush (6th).
• The Broncos’ running backs will have success running the ball but they will be contained on screens. Bo Nix targeted running backs on 20.1% of passes (8th-most), but Buffalo’s defense conceded 0.18 EPA/target to opposing running backs (4th).
• Nix will look deep for Denver WR Courtland Sutton, who had 13 receptions with 20+ air yards (3rd). Bills starting S Jordan Poyer is sidelined, and backup Jordan Hancock is allowing 0.23 yards per cover snap more than Poyer.
• Our model favors the Broncos by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 45.8 points, and Denver applies to a 37-9 ATS playoff situation.

Denver is a Strong Opinion at -1 -110 odds or better.