Game Analysis

Lean – Buffalo (+2) over CINCINNATI

Lean – Over (49.5)

· The Bills were short favorites on the road in week 17 last year versus the Bengals even though Buffalo’s defense did not have starting safety Micah Hyde or edge rusher Von Miller.

· The current Bills defense is worse than week 17 last season after losing LB Tremaine Edmunds in free agency and dealing with injuries to linebacker Matt Milano, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, and cornerback Tre’Davious White. However, Buffalo’s trade for CB Rasul Douglas this week mostly replaces White. Douglas is conceding 6.5 yards per target compared to Bills backup CB Christian Benford, who is allowing 8.6 yards per target. Cincinnati WR Ja’Marr Chase has a 65% success rate (2nd) but he will be limited by Douglas when the new cornerback is on the field.

· The Bengals’ defense is also notably worse than they were in week 17 last year after losing starting safeties Jessie Bates and Von Bell this offseason. Cincinnati is allowing 0.33 EPA/target to tight ends (28th) and they will struggle versus TE Dalton Kincaid, whose 71% success rate leads the NFL.

· The Bengals defense has a 39.9% pressure rate (6th) but I don’t think they will get to Allen much in this game. Josh Allen’s 2.27-second average time to throw last Thursday night was the fastest of his career and Allen had a career-low 13.0% pressure rate in that game against the Buccaneers.

· Buffalo LT Dion Dawkins ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who has 35 pressures (10th).

· Cincinnati interior defender DJ Reader ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be limited by LG Connor McGovern, who has only conceded 9 pressures (5th-lowest).

· Josh Allen is averaging 0.27 EPA/dropback outside the pocket (4th) and he will kill the Bengals on scramble drills on the rare occasion they do get pressure.

· The Bills are leading the NFL with a 46.5% rush success rate, and they will move the ball on the ground as Cincinnati’s rush defense ranks 31st according to our numbers.

· Meanwhile, the Bengals are averaging only 3.7 yards per rush (9th-worst) and they will not be able to run Buffalo’s defense out of light boxes. The Bills had just a 5% Dime rate in the first 7 weeks, but third safety Taylor Rapp was on the field for 37% of the snaps last game and he is better in coverage than backup LB Tyrel Dodson.

· Joe Burrow has recovered from his calf injury and he vastly improved his deep ball completing 61% of his passes with at least 10 air yards since week 5 compared to just a 29% completion percentage on 10+ air yard passes in the first four games. We’ve upgraded the Bengals’ offense by 4.1 points and now have them rated as a top-5 offense. However, I do not think Burrow will have clean pockets to look downfield on Sunday night.

· Buffalo interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from LG Cordell Volson, who has surrendered 19 pressures (9th-most).

· Our model favors the Bills by 1.4 points even with the 4.1 points being added to Cincinnati’s offensive rating, so there is value on the side of the Bills in this game. The model predicted total is 50.4 points and the matchups favor the over.