Game Analysis

Lean – CINCINNATI (+1)

Lean – Over (49.5)

· Monday night’s game is going to come down to the protection for Joe Burrow after starting right tackle La’el Collins tore both his ACL and MCL.

· Backup tackle Hakeem Adeniji has been one of the worst linemen in the NFL for two seasons and he has allowed 6 pressures in only 77 pass blocking snaps in 2022.

· Adeniji surrendered 6 sacks in the playoffs last year which shows how awful he is, but also the Bengals have shown the ability to survive despite him.

· Bills edge defender Gregory Rousseau is averaging more than 3 pressures per game and he will line up across from Adeniji.

· Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s best pass rusher Trey Hendrickson has 58 pressures (11th) but he will be limited by LT Dion Dawkins, who ranks 20th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Josh Allen should have no problem hitting his go-to guy in this game. WR Stefon Diggs has a 62% success rate (5th) and he will go against Bengals CB Eli Apple, who ranks 64th in coverage grade by PFF out of 70 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Burrow has thrown a catchable pass on 64% of his deep balls with 20+ air yards this season (2nd) and I expect him to attack Buffalo cornerback Dane Jackson downfield versus Ja’Marr Chase, who has a 56% success rate (18th).

· Our model favors the Bills by 2.3 points, with a predicted total of 52.4 points, but I’m leaning with Cincy on the basis of a 136-47-1 ATS situation and a 77-29-1 ATS Monday night home situation.