Game Analysis

Buffalo (-8) vs CHICAGO

· This game will be defined by the weather. It will be 7 degrees in Chicago with winds around 30mph. It will feel like one of the coldest NFL games in decades on the field.

· There have been ten games with temperatures under 10 degrees Fahrenheit since 2000. Only two of them went over the total.

· Every single home game this year for Justin Fields has had either double-digit wind speeds or downpouring rain, but this game will be the worst of them all according to our metrics.

· Fields will not have both his starting guards and his top two wide receivers with Tevin Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Chase Claypool, and Equanimeous St. Brown all out. These cluster injuries at separate positions are worth 2.5 points to Chicago’s offense.

· Cole Kmet has the highest success rate of any Bears receiver (57%) but he will be shut down with extra defenders because the Bills won’t have to worry about WRs. Also, Buffalo’s defense allows only 5.2 yards per target to tight ends (2nd).

· Bills edge defender Gregory Rousseau has 7.0 sacks in 11 games, but he will be limited by RT Riley Reiff, who is allowing just a 5% pressure rate

· The Bears are one of only two teams to run the ball more than they pass it (50.1%) this season which means they should be affected by the wind less than the Bills.

· Fields has 60 rushing yards in eight consecutive starts and he will likely have to carry the offense with his legs again today given the difficult passing conditions.

· Chicago’s defense is surrendering -0.003 EPA/play from opponent rushes (27th) and the Buffalo’s offense is miscast as only having a productive passing attack. Josh Allen’s running ability makes the Bills dangerous on the ground where they rank 3rd in our metrics. Buffalo is gaining 5.0 yards per carry, also ranking 3rd in the NFL.

· The Bills will be without center Mitch Morse, who is worth a half point. However, the Bears have the league’s most toothless pass rush. Chicago has just 5 sacks since trading edge defender Robert Quinn after week 7.

· Our model favors the Bills by 10.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points, but those games in temps below 10 went under by a median of 3.5 points so the current 40 points total seem fair.

· Chicago applies to a 61-16 ATS situation that plays on underdogs on a 5 game or more losing streak that have continued to be competitive in recent games. I used Chicago in my spread pool but recommended passing on this game.