Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (50) – Buffalo (-4.5) vs ATLANTA

• The Bills put up a season-low 20 points last week, and I think some will be concerned about a nuclear Josh Allen game here, coming off the frustrating loss. However, defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott has historically gotten more conservative after a loss with Buffalo (17-10-1 ATS and 9-19 OU since 2019).
• This is a favorable matchup for McDermott’s defense with the 4th-highest Cover 3 rate. Most of Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s shot concepts are clear out posts (from outside) or deep crossers (from opposite slot). The free safety in Cover 3 takes care of both of those. Atlanta’s yppp against Cover 3 is a league-low 70% compared to other coverages.
• I think the Falcons will try to control this game on the ground, milking the clock and shortening the game as an underdog. Atlanta’s offense has the 7th-highest run play percentage adjusted for situation, and the Bills are surrendering 0.03 EPA/rush (28th).
• Josh Allen went 5-5 for 71 yards off of play action last week, but he will be limited on Monday night as the Falcons defense ranks 2nd relatively versus play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady calls a 69% motion rate (2nd-highest), but Atlanta has done a great job disguising coverage, and their yppp allowed versus motion is 85% of the yppp allowed against no motion (2nd).
• The Falcons will likely have top cornerback AJ Terrell back on the field this week, coming off a bye. Backup CB Dee Alford has 3 penalties in just 78 coverage snaps, and AJ Terrell had 2 penalties in 671 coverage snaps last year.
• Our model favors the Bills by 5.9 points with a predicted total of 46.1 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 49.5 points or more.