Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Baltimore (-3.5) over TENNESSEE

Note: This play was released to subscribers early in the week when the line was -3.5.

· Lamar Jackson averaged 5.0 yppp in last week’s loss, which is incredibly misleading given that Baltimore’s receivers dropped 7 passes including three potential touchdowns.

· The Ravens had 5 drops on passes with at least 10 air yards and that will not happen again. Jackson throwing deeper is encouraging after he had just 29 passes with 10+ air yards prior to week 5 (2nd-lowest). Jackson had 20 passes with at least 10 air yards against the Steelers. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken is known for his deep passing, so I think Baltimore’s reluctance to go downfield in the first four weeks was likely due to troubles protecting with backups along the offensive line.

· Right tackle Morgan Moses was out last game but backup Patrick Mekari was able to hold up until he was sidelined as well leaving 3rd-string Daniel Faalele to fail. The Ravens gained 5.7 yppl with Mekari on the field and it dropped to 3.3 yppl once Mekari went out. With Morgan Moses returning to practice (and Patrick Mekari too), Baltimore could have their original starting five offensive linemen together for the first game since week 1.

· Moses and LT Ronnie Stanley will limit Tennessee edge defenders Denico Autry and Arden Key, who have 32 combined pressures.

· The Titans ground game has not been at its usual standard putting way too much of the burden on Ryan Tannehill. Derrick Henry is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, and that average is unlikely to improve on Sunday as the Ravens defense ranks 3rd in EPA/rush.

· Mike Vrabel is 23-11-1 ATS as a dog of 3+ but the favorite is 26-15 ATS in International Games because there isn’t normal prep for underdog coaches to even the playing field with scheme. We see a similar effect with Thursday night games.

· Baltimore was embarrassed by Jacksonville in a 44-7 loss when they last went to London in 2017. John Harbaugh decided to move the Ravens’ entire operation – from video to medical to all the equipment – to London for the entire week in hopes that it will make a difference this time around.

· Baltimore will practice all week in London while getting six nights of sleep in the new time zone. This is the earliest any team has left for an international game this season. They should be adjusted for the 9:30 a.m. ET game time, which is 2:30 p.m. local in London.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 8.5 points, with a predicted total of 41.8 points.

Baltimore is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.