Game Analysis
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Lean – TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Baltimore
- Tampa Bay’s 594 yards of offense last week was the most by any team in a game this year.
- Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator Liam Coen is doing a great job getting Tampa Bay’s receivers open with space to run as 64% of Baker Mayfield’s passing yards have come after the catch and he has a career-low 2.48 second time to throw.
- Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin leads the NFL with a 70% success rate, but I doubt he’ll have as much room to run on Monday night when lined up across from nickelback Marlon Humphrey, who is allowing a league-low 0.62 yards per cover snap in the slot.
- Mayfield will instead feature Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans versus rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins, who is allowing 1.79 yards per cover snap (3rd-worst). Evans has a 60% success rate (8th).
- The Buccaneers have risen to 8th in neutral pass-play rate in the last month and I expect them to keep throwing the ball because the Ravens are conceding a league-low 27% rush success rate.
- Baltimore WR Zay Flowers had 132 receiving yards last week and he leads the NFL with 106 yards from screens. Tampa Bay’s defense could be without starting CB Jamel Dean for this game, but the Buccaneers are allowing a league-low 5% of the passing yards they’ve conceded to come from screens.
- Lamar Jackson is targeting tight ends on 29% of passes (3rd-most) and he has a favorable matchup as Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering 0.50 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (31st).
- Ravens C Tyler Linderbaum 2nd in pass blocking efficiency and he will contain interior defender Vita Vea, who has 3 sacks (7th).
- Buccaneers edge defender Yaya Diaby ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc against rookie RT Roger Rosengarten, whose 18.2% pressure rate was the second-worst clip among all offensive tackles last week.
- Baltimore’s offense has a 48% rush success rate (4th) and they will move the ball on the ground versus a Tampa Bay defense rated 25th in EPA/rush allowed.
- Our model favors the Ravens by just 1.0 points with a predicted total of 46.9 points.