Baltimore Ravens @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Oct 20
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: Seattle Seahawks -3, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (49.5) – SEATTLE (-3/-3.5) vs Baltimore

Russell Wilson is tied for the league-lead with 18 completions on balls with 20+ air yards but I’m expecting the deep passing game to be shut down by Earl Thomas in the elite safety’s much-anticipated return to Seattle. The Seahawks lost tight end Will Dissly to an Achilles injury and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. Dissly was gaining 2.50 yards per route run (4th) and we’re making a 0.6-point adjustment to Seattle’s offense for the drop off to backup Luke Willson. This is a particularly unfortunate week to lose Dissly because Baltimore’s defensive weakness is defending tight ends. The Ravens are 1 of only 4 teams surrendering 10 yards per target to opposing tight ends and Seattle isn’t going to take advantage of that weakness like they would if Dissly were playing. WR Tyler Lockett is averaging 2.40 yards per route run in the slot but I expect him to be limited by top 10 nickelback Brandon Carr. Baltimore traded for Marcus Peters, who is conceding only 0.74 yards per cover snap (11th), and we have the cornerback valued at about a half point. The Ravens have a sack rate below 5% but they are ranked 2nd with a 57% pass rush win rate, meaning their defenders are getting to the quarterback in 2.5 seconds on 57% of rushes. Baltimore’s defense will start getting more sacks and the turnaround should start this week as the Seahawks will likely be without left tackle Duane Brown. Right tackle Germain Ifedi has conceded a league-high 28 pressures and will be exposed by Matthew Judon.

Jadeveon Clowney has recorded just 1 sack thus far but Seattle’s defensive line will get a boost with Jarran Reed making his season debut this week. Reed ranked 11th in pass rush efficiency in 2018 and will pair nicely with Quinton Jefferson, who ranks 8th in pass rush efficiency among interior defenders thus far. Hollywood Brown is gaining 2.23 yards per route run (11th) but the rookie wide receiver is nursing an ankle injury and should be shut down by Shaquill Griffin, who is surrendering only 0.60 yards per cover snap (4th). The Ravens are the only team targeting tight ends on more than 40% of passes with Mark Andrews averaging 2.59 yards per route run (2nd). Andrews will likely have a big game versus a Seahawks defense allowing 8.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (26th).

I expect both teams to be run-heavy with rain in the forecast. Baltimore’s ground game is the NFL’s most efficient and Seattle has the 3rd-highest adjusted run-play rate with back Chris Carson being the only player in the NFL to force 30 missed tackles on rushes. Our model favors the Seahawks by 3.1 with a predicted total of 46.1 points based on current weather forecasts. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 48.5 points or higher and I have no opinion on the total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Seahawks
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.2 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 45.6%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 4.9%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 20.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.5% 50.0%
  • NYPP 7.1 7.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 37.2 18.5
  • RB YPR 4.6 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 15.3% 32.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 58.0% 40.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 47.5% 38.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.5 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 73.3 55.3
  • Early Down Succ 54.6% 46.6%
  • Succ Rate 53.0% 44.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.6% 51.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 26.4
  • Run Ratio 50.6% 32.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.8 25.7
  • Game Control 5.8 -5.8
 
  • Points 30.7 23.3
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