Game Analysis

Baltimore (-3) vs PITTSBURGH

• Lamar Jackson completed 19-of-23 pass attempts for 250 yards from a clean pocket last week and Baltimore’s offense is humming. Jackson’s +103 EPA since week 5 is the 2nd-most in a six-game span since 2015.
• However, Mike Tomlin’s defense might be built to contain Jackson. Baltimore’s offense is targeting tight ends on 29% of passes (5th-most) but Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing -0.06 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (5th).
• The Ravens have a 45% rush success rate (4th) and RB Derrick Henry has forced a league-high 59 missed tackles but the Steelers are allowing -0.16 EPA/rush (5th).
• Baltimore rookie RT Roger Rosengarten ranks 3rd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from edge rusher TJ Watt, who has 6.5 sacks (12th).
• The Ravens catch a break with Pittsburgh’s defense missing edge defender Alex Highsmith, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency. The Steelers did trade for edge defender Preston Smith at the deadline for depth.
• Baltimore’s yppp versus Cover 3 is 26% more than against other coverages (5th) and I expect Jackson to look downfield in the seams for WR Rashod Bateman versus A Pittsburgh defense with the 2nd-highest Cover 3 rate. Bateman leads the Ravens’ offense with a 14.6-yard average depth of target.
• The Steelers are averaging 0.07 EPA/play since Russell Wilson took over under center (10th) but they have just a 40% success rate (25th). Wilson is completing an unsustainable 53% of his passes with at least 20 air yards. Pittsburgh WR George Pickens has two more deep receptions than every other receiver.
• The Steelers got back C Zach Frazier last week, and he ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency. However, I do see some leaks in Pittsburgh’s offensive line.
• Steelers backup RG Mason McCormick will struggle against Nnamdi Madubuike, who had 3.0 sacks last week.
• Ravens edge defender Kyle Van Noy has 35 pressures (15th) and he will have a favorable matchup versus right tackle Broderick Jones, who has allowed a league-high 7 sacks.
• Wilson can check Baltimore’s pass rush with the screen game. Pittsburgh’s running backs have a 20% target share (8th-highest) and the Ravens defense is surrendering 0.41 EPA/target to opposing running backs (31st).
• The Steelers have the highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation in the NFL but the running backs will be shut down on the ground as Baltimore’s defense is allowing -0.20 EPA/rush (2nd).
• The Ravens might be without S Kyle Hamilton, who is conceding 1.01 yards per cover snap in the slot (10th). The All-Pro safety has an ankle injury and is worth 0.6 points by our numbers.
• Our model makes Baltimore a 4.6-point favorite, with a predicted total of 49.5 points, but Pittsburgh applies to an 89-26-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation and home dogs that have won 3 or more consecutive game are historically good bets. I think 3 is the right number and I’m not sure which side I’ll use in my pool. I’m in two pools and will probably use Pittsburgh in one and Baltimore in the other. If you have +3.5 in your pool then use Pittsburgh.