Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH

This Sunday night clash will be the Ravens’ last game without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, but they will likely be wishing his suspension was one game shorter going up against these Steelers wide receivers. Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster both ranked top 10 in yards per route run in 2017, while rookie second-round pick James Washington looks like he is getting more comfortable in the offense with 3 first-down catches last week. Still, even without Smith, the Ravens’ pass defense has been elite in allowing just 52% completions and a paltry 4.3 yards per pass play. The competition hasn’t been great as far as opposing quarterbacks are concerned, but those numbers are still good even after compensating them for the strength of quarterbacks faced. But, Pittsburgh will certainly be a test for Baltimore’s defense.

Linebacker C.J. Mosley and defensive tackle Michael Pierce have both returned to practice after missing last week’s game against the Broncos, which is crucial for Baltimore’s defense as they are worth about a half point each. The Ravens have surrendered just a 39% success rate to opposing offenses, the best mark in the league, while the Steelers have a solid defense of their own with Joe Haden back, as they’ve allowed a 43% success rate (3rd).

Still, there are solid reasons for the first Steelers-Ravens total above 50 points despite the excellent defenses. Offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance early in the season, and Pittsburgh’s offense grades 6th in my season-to-date metrics while Baltimore’s grades 5th. Furthermore, both offenses rank top 10 in passing rate and top 5 in pace of play. Our model doesn’t see enough value in the total but our numbers favor the Steelers by just 1 point and I’ll lean with Baltimore at +3 points or more and would get more interested if the line on this game gets up to a solid 3.5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Steelers

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 46.0 39.3
Succ Pass Plays 46.8% 37.2%
Sack Rate 5.6% 7.8%
Int Rate 1.3% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 16.6% 17.3%
Big Pass Yards 41.3% 33.6%
NYPP 6.4 4.3

Rush

Rush Plays 29.0 24.7
RB YPR 2.9 4.1
Stuff Rate 22.3% 31.2%
Succ Rush Plays 42.1% 37.1%
Big Rush Yards 24.6% 51.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.0 4.2

Game

All Snaps 75.0 64.0
Early Down Succ 45.5% 39.3%
Succ Rate 44.8% 37.2%
Big Yards Rate 37.5% 41.2%
Yards Per Play 5.1 4.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 24.9 27.2
Run Ratio 38.9% 38.5%
Starting Field Pos 30.4 33.4
Game Control 6.3 -6.3

Points 32.3 17.0

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 49.0 42.7
Succ Pass Plays 47.3% 45.3%
Sack Rate 5.9% 8.1%
Int Rate 3.3% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 17.6% 28.4%
Big Pass Yards 43.3% 57.6%
NYPP 7.5 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 24.7 27.3
RB YPR 3.2 3.5
Stuff Rate 23.5% 22.2%
Succ Rush Plays 39.6% 43.7%
Big Rush Yards 33.9% 54.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.4

Game

All Snaps 73.7 70.0
Early Down Succ 49.3% 47.6%
Succ Rate 45.4% 44.2%
Big Yards Rate 43.0% 54.8%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.5 26.8
Run Ratio 33.3% 39.2%
Starting Field Pos 24.6 30.0
Game Control 2.0 -2.0

Points 29.3 30.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	47 – 3 W	25.9	42.5% / 20.5%	5.0% / 15.4%	0.0% / 6.1%	6.3 / 1.8	44.1% / 22.7%	29.4% / 31.8%	3.4 / 3.8	74 / 61	43.3% / 24.4%	43.2% / 21.3%	43.1% / 39.9%	5.0 / 2.5	1.4% / 0.0%	45.9% / 36.1%	41.3 / 30.5
2	@CIN	23 – 34 L	-11.8	49.1% / 45.2%	7.0% / 0.0%	3.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	50.0% / 42.9%	18.2% / 28.6%	3.0 / 3.9	79 / 70	50.0% / 45.6%	49.4% / 44.3%	35.5% / 43.7%	5.4 / 5.3	1.3% / 0.0%	27.8% / 40.0%	22.6 / 36.3
3	DEN	27 – 14 W	4.7	48.8% / 45.9%	4.9% / 8.1%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.5 / 4.7	32.3% / 45.8%	19.4% / 33.3%	2.6 / 5.0	72 / 61	43.1% / 47.8%	41.7% / 45.9%	33.9% / 39.9%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 39.3%	27.2 / 33.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 21 T	6.0	40.0% / 21.7%	8.9% / 15.2%	7.3% / 2.6%	7.0 / 3.3	44.4% / 39.5%	19.4% / 34.2%	4.4 / 4.7	81 / 84	42.2% / 30.8%	42.0% / 29.8%	48.4% / 64.5%	5.8 / 3.9	3.7% / 0.0%	44.4% / 45.2%	23.9 / 34.4
2	KC	37 – 42 L	-9.7	50.8% / 69.0%	1.6% / 3.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.2 / 11.1	38.5% / 44.4%	23.1% / 14.8%	2.5 / 4.8	74 / 56	51.7% / 63.8%	48.6% / 57.1%	35.2% / 56.1%	6.4 / 8.1	0.0% / 1.8%	17.6% / 48.2%	21.8 / 30.3
3	@TB	30 – 27 W	9.7	51.2% / 45.3%	7.3% / 5.7%	2.6% / 6.0%	8.2 / 7.4	36.0% / 47.1%	28.0% / 17.6%	3.2 / 3.8	66 / 70	54.0% / 48.3%	45.5% / 45.7%	45.4% / 43.6%	6.3 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.4%	37.9% / 24.3%	28.0 / 25.2

Baltimore Ravens @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Sep 30

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis