Baltimore Ravens @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Oct 18
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 263
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles +9.5, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – PHILADELPHIA (+7.5) over Baltimore

Lean – Over 47.5

Carson Wentz was 11-for-16 with 104 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception when the Steelers blitzed last week and he will likely see a ton of extra pass rushers again on Sunday as the Ravens blitz on 48% of dropbacks (2nd to PIT). Zach Ertz’s last two games have been terrible (5 catches for 15 yards), as he’s getting more attention with the Eagles being without all of their other starting receivers. The Pro-Bowl tight end’s fortunes could turn around this week given that Baltimore’s defense is allowing more than 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Ravens edge defender Matthew Judon ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency, which will be trouble if Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson is unable to go. Johnson has conceded just 3 pressures all season but was lifted from the game last week with an ankle injury. Jason Kelce would be the only projected starter coming into the season remaining along Philadelphia’s offensive line if Johnson is unable to suit up on Sunday.

Lamar Jackson missed two practices last week and it seemed a nagging knee injury was bothering him. Jackson had only two designed rush attempts against the Bengals, his lowest since week 1 of last year when the Ravens crushed the Dolphins and didn’t need him to run. The Eagles rank second in the NFL in pressure percentage (38%) so it is likely Jackson will have to run more this week against collapsing pockets, but he assured reporters he is feeling “way better” than last week. Marquise Brown has 4 catches on balls with at least 20 air yards but he should be contained by Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay, who was cleared to play (concussion). Philadelphia’s defense is allowing 8.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends this year without safety Malcolm Jenkins, who moved to New Orleans in the offseason, so this game is setting up well for Ravens’ TE Mark Andrews.

Our model makes Baltimore a 6.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.6 points and I’ll lean with Philadelphia on the basis of a 56-7 ATS contrary situation that plays on losing teams with bad spread records against good teams with good spread records.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Eagles
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 28.0 40.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.8% 45.8%
  • Sack Rate 10.7% 7.4%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 23.4% 20.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.3% 37.3%
  • NYPP 8.0 5.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 33.5 22.0
  • RB YPR 5.0 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 16.0% 18.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.0% 41.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 61.0% 29.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.9 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 61.5 62.5
  • Early Down Succ 48.4% 51.2%
  • Succ Rate 47.2% 45.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 54.2% 38.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 2.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.7 26.4
  • Run Ratio 54.3% 34.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 35.8 22.5
  • Game Control 12.5 -12.5
 
  • Points 35.5 11.0
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