Baltimore Ravens @

New York Jets

Sun, Sep 11
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 453
Odds: New York Jets +7, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Baltimore (-7) vs NY JETS

· The Ravens came into 2021 with a market win expectation of 10.4 after losing starting CB Marcus Peters (Peters out again today) and top three running backs in the preseason. Baltimore’s win expectation is 10.2 this year with an easier projected strength of schedule so I think they are undervalued. The Ravens are slightly worse on offense than a year ago at this time, but clearly healthier and better on defense and I think they are the favorite to win the AFC North.

· The Ravens lose WR Marquise Brown on offense but he might be a touch overrated after averaging only 1.61 yards per route run last season which ranked 30th out of 33 wide receivers with at least 100 targets.

· Baltimore’s defense adds Marcus Williams, who led all safeties with a 0.38 forced incompletions per target last year. 

· Baltimore’s offense might be in a bit of trouble with their high run rate in this specific matchup. The Jets were terrible in just about every facet of the game last season except rush defense where they ranked 8th by our numbers. 

· Edge defender Carl Lawson will be a welcome new piece after he didn’t get to play a game for New York last year due to torn Achilles, but ranked 9th in pass rushing efficiency his last full season in 2020.

· As a defensive-minded head coach, I think Robert Saleh was embarrassed by the league-high 29.6 points per game New York surrendered in 2021 and I think he’ll have more conservative tendencies to make that number more reasonable this year.

· Joe Flacco will get the start and I certainly don’t plan on seeing any fireworks from the Jets offensively. Flacco has averaged just 5.6 yppp the last five seasons.

Ravens LT Stanley and CB Marcus Peters are both out. The model now favors the Ravens by 7.0 with a predicted total of 43.9 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Jets
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.00 59.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.4% 50.8%
  • Sack Rate 9.1% 5.1%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 10.0% 25.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 54.5% 44.1%
  • NYPP 6.58 6.93



Rush


  • Rush Plays 34.00 21.00
  • RB YPR 4.43 2.81
  • Stuff Rate 23.5% 47.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.2% 38.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 65.1% 72.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.56 3.90




Game

  • All Snaps 67.00 80.00
  • Early Down Succ 43.4% 50.0%
  • Succ Rate 40.3% 47.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 59.2% 48.5%
  • Yards Per Play 6.06 6.14
  • Fumble Lost Rate 3.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.01 28.20
  • Run Ratio 50.7% 26.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
Share This