Game Analysis

Note: The total has gone up to 51 points and does not qualify as a Strong Opinion at that number. The Over is a Lean at 51 points.

Strong Opinion – Over (50) – Baltimore (-3) vs LA CHARGERS

• The Chargers are now 7-3 with the league’s fourth-best point differential but the Los Angeles defense is the most overrated in the NFL based on the schedule according to our compensation algorithm. The Chargers have only seen 3 offenses ranked above average in yppl and one of them doesn’t really count because it was the Saints with Spencer Rattler. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has played 4 of the 8 offenses averaging less than 5 yppl.
• Furthermore, the Chargers defense is dealing with injuries to LB Denzel Perryman and edge rusher Khalil Mack, who led Los Angeles with 28 pressures before sitting out last week.
• Lamar Jackson leads the NFL averaging 0.28 EPA/play and I expect him to put up points in ideal weather with an ideal playing surface on Monday night.
• There’s been an uptick in Justin Herbert’s scrambling since week 8, signifying that Herbert was no longer nursing the high ankle sprain from week 2. Herbert is averaging 37 rushing yards per game over his last four and he is averaging 7.6 yppp compared to 6.3 yppp in the first 7 weeks.
• The Los Angeles tight ends have a 26% target share (7th-highest) and a favorable matchup as Baltimore LB Roquan Smith left the last game after just one snap into the fourth quarter and appears to be out with a hamstring injury.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 54.0 points.

Over is a Strong Opinion at 50.5 or less.