Game Analysis
Lean – LA CHARGERS (-4.5) vs Baltimore
Lamar Jackson has transformed the Ravens into a run-first offense and they are playing at a pace more than 2 seconds slower with the rookie under center. The Ravens are 4-1 in Jackson’s starts with the only loss coming by 3 points in Kansas City, but Baltimore has benefitted from playing 5 of the worst rush defenses in the league after making the quarterback switch. The Chargers rush defense ranks 25th but may stand a chance to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens ground game. Joey Bosa didn’t play the first 10 games of the season, but he has recorded a 10.8% run stop rate the last 5 weeks (4th) and had 27 run stops last year (7th). Baltimore is running the ball outside right, which will be towards Bosa, at nearly double the rate they’re running outside left, and I expect the Pro Bowl edge defender to make it difficult for the Ravens to move the ball on the ground. Bosa also has 22 pressures since his week 11 debut (5th) and fellow edge defender Melvin Ingram has 56 pressures this season (11th). However, the Ravens have one of the top tackle tandems in the NFL as James Hurst and Ronnie Stanley have combined to concede just 1 sack all season and Jackson should have time in the pocket when he drops back to pass.
Baltimore’s defense is excellent versus wide receivers and running backs, ranking 1st and 2nd respectively in yards allowed per target, but the Ravens rank just 24th against tight ends, which the Chargers may or may not be able to exploit. Los Angeles is targeting tight ends at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league this season after Hunter Henry suffered an injury over the summer, but Henry has been cleared to make his season debut on Saturday and it is unknown how many snaps he will receive. Ravens’ defensive linemen Za’Darius Smith and Matthew Judon both rank in the top 15 in pass rushing efficiency and, while Chargers’ tackle Russell Okung should hold his own, Sam Tevi ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency and will likely be exposed on the right side.
Our model favors the Chargers by 5.4 as they could take possession of home field advantage with a win and a Chiefs loss in Seattle. I’ll lean slightly with the Chargers based on the little bit of line value and on a 74-145-5 ATS final road game situation that applies to Baltimore.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.1
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.6%
42.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
8.6%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.5%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.8%
37.5%
-
NYPP
6.3
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.5
23.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.0%
25.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.5%
40.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.3%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.6
60.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.4%
43.9%
-
Succ Rate
50.1%
41.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.2%
39.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.6
-
Run Ratio
48.0%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
28.5
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.9
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.7%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.4%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.2%
42.4%
-
NYPP
8.2
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.1
24.2
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
21.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.0%
51.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.5%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.0
59.8
-
Early Down Succ
53.4%
50.4%
-
Succ Rate
50.5%
49.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.3%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.6
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.2
29.4
-
Run Ratio
43.8%
40.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.8
27.8
-
Game Control
3.0
-3.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% /
20.5% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.3 /
1.8 |
44.1% /
22.7% |
29.4% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
43.3% /
24.4% |
43.2% /
21.3% |
43.1% /
39.9% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
36.1% |
41.3 /
30.5 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% /
45.2% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
79 /
70 |
50.0% /
45.6% |
49.4% /
44.3% |
35.5% /
43.7% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
40.0% |
22.6 /
36.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% /
45.9% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
72 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.8% |
41.7% /
45.9% |
33.9% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
39.3% |
27.2 /
33.4 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% /
47.9% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
48.5% /
16.7% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
77 /
60 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
48.1% /
41.7% |
32.7% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
42.9% /
20.0% |
36.8 /
21.2 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% /
62.1% |
6.5% /
17.2% |
3.4% /
4.2% |
9.5 /
10.5 |
48.0% /
46.4% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
56 /
57 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
66.1% /
54.4% |
35.1% /
57.7% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
49.1% |
31.4 /
19.7 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% /
26.9% |
0.0% /
42.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
2.0 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
3.9 |
73 /
40 |
37.7% /
33.3% |
45.2% /
27.5% |
44.5% /
42.5% |
5.0 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
35.0% |
29.9 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% /
45.2% |
2.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
12.5% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
71 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
48.4% /
47.9% |
19.7% /
31.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.9% /
56.3% |
21.8 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
77.8% /
31.4% |
16.7% /
20.0% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
64 /
65 |
56.0% /
47.9% |
54.7% /
44.6% |
26.2% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
53.8% |
23.0 /
37.5 |
| 9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% /
51.0% |
5.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
48.1% |
37.5% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
56 /
76 |
44.2% /
45.8% |
41.1% /
50.0% |
47.8% /
27.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
35.5% |
26.0 /
23.8 |
| 11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% /
39.5% |
9.5% /
2.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
47.4% /
37.5% |
15.8% /
31.3% |
4.7 /
3.0 |
78 /
54 |
53.6% /
38.5% |
48.7% /
38.9% |
33.7% /
56.5% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
73.1% /
29.6% |
31.6 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
OAK |
34 – 17 W |
3.9 |
42.3% /
29.7% |
3.8% /
8.1% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
68.9% /
47.6% |
11.1% /
19.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
71 /
58 |
63.0% /
42.5% |
59.2% /
36.2% |
60.8% /
44.2% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
63.4% /
36.2% |
24.8 /
25.5 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
26 – 16 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
7.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
3.2 |
61.5% /
37.5% |
11.5% /
31.3% |
4.0 /
2.2 |
80 /
46 |
63.8% /
44.1% |
57.5% /
37.0% |
29.3% /
8.3% |
4.6 /
2.9 |
1.3% /
2.2% |
65.0% /
34.8% |
25.9 /
25.6 |
| 14 |
@KC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.6 |
41.4% /
53.6% |
10.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
56.4% /
55.6% |
10.3% /
25.9% |
5.1 /
3.5 |
68 /
83 |
52.8% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
54.2% |
25.5% /
28.3% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
57.4% /
32.5% |
29.8 /
30.2 |
| 15 |
TB |
20 – 12 W |
2.3 |
36.0% /
26.9% |
8.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
53.8% /
54.5% |
11.5% /
9.1% |
4.7 /
3.9 |
77 /
48 |
49.1% /
45.7% |
48.1% /
39.6% |
39.7% /
59.1% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
2.6% /
0.0% |
67.5% /
45.8% |
32.3 /
34.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
28 – 38 L |
-9.6 |
55.8% /
46.4% |
1.9% /
3.6% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
9.1 |
59.1% /
59.3% |
18.2% /
25.9% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
74 /
55 |
61.3% /
55.6% |
56.8% /
52.7% |
45.1% /
66.0% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
49.1% |
20.1 /
29.1 |
| 2 |
@BUF |
31 – 20 W |
14.5 |
65.5% /
36.8% |
6.9% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.3 /
5.5 |
33.3% /
54.5% |
40.7% /
31.8% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
56 /
60 |
55.6% /
45.7% |
50.0% /
43.3% |
44.0% /
59.0% |
6.3 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
36.7% |
36.5 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
@LA |
23 – 35 L |
-9.0 |
40.6% /
59.5% |
6.3% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.7 /
9.5 |
60.0% /
62.2% |
30.0% /
10.8% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
52 /
74 |
45.9% /
62.7% |
48.1% /
60.8% |
62.9% /
45.5% |
6.8 /
7.1 |
3.8% /
1.4% |
38.5% /
50.0% |
26.6 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
SF |
29 – 27 W |
-2.8 |
47.5% /
52.6% |
2.5% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
5.4% |
6.1 /
7.6 |
35.5% /
38.1% |
12.9% /
28.6% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
48.9% |
42.3% /
47.5% |
47.4% /
46.4% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
35.6% |
41.3 /
22.5 |
| 5 |
OAK |
26 – 10 W |
9.9 |
78.3% /
68.0% |
4.3% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
14.5 /
9.9 |
27.3% /
61.5% |
30.3% /
23.1% |
2.5 /
3.2 |
56 /
38 |
45.5% /
55.6% |
48.2% /
65.8% |
43.4% /
59.5% |
7.4 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
58.9% /
34.2% |
35.3 /
21.2 |
| 6 |
@CLE |
38 – 14 W |
14.7 |
45.5% /
39.2% |
4.5% /
9.8% |
4.8% /
4.3% |
9.2 /
4.2 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
13.2% /
33.3% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
60 /
72 |
68.8% /
41.5% |
56.7% /
40.3% |
69.2% /
50.2% |
7.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.3% /
29.2% |
30.5 /
34.2 |
| 7 |
TEN |
20 – 19 W |
4.9 |
57.1% /
58.8% |
7.1% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
10.6 /
6.6 |
35.3% /
48.5% |
17.6% /
18.2% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
45 /
67 |
52.9% /
51.0% |
48.9% /
53.7% |
55.4% /
33.1% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.8% /
49.3% |
29.0 /
27.5 |
| 9 |
@SEA |
25 – 17 W |
5.4 |
42.9% /
39.0% |
7.1% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
4.9 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
31.8% /
21.9% |
7.3 /
4.8 |
50 /
73 |
51.2% /
52.7% |
46.0% /
49.3% |
69.9% /
30.3% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.0% /
43.8% |
21.2 /
25.1 |
| 10 |
@OAK |
20 – 6 W |
5.9 |
48.1% /
39.0% |
3.7% /
9.8% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.0 |
57.7% /
43.5% |
19.2% /
21.7% |
4.3 /
5.0 |
53 /
64 |
59.5% /
45.5% |
52.8% /
40.6% |
47.5% /
45.3% |
6.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.1% /
35.9% |
21.6 /
23.1 |
| 11 |
DEN |
22 – 23 L |
3.5 |
47.8% /
46.9% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
6.8 |
38.5% /
57.9% |
23.1% /
15.8% |
3.7 /
5.7 |
72 /
51 |
40.4% /
56.4% |
44.4% /
51.0% |
52.8% /
45.5% |
6.7 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
37.3% |
19.7 /
32.7 |
| 12 |
ARI |
45 – 10 W |
12.8 |
63.9% /
38.1% |
11.1% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
6.6 /
4.1 |
59.4% /
28.0% |
12.5% /
24.0% |
5.6 /
2.5 |
68 /
46 |
67.9% /
35.5% |
61.8% /
32.6% |
38.7% /
32.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
54.3% |
36.2 /
32.6 |
| 13 |
@PIT |
33 – 30 W |
-6.8 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
5.3% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
31.8% /
52.9% |
27.3% /
5.9% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
60 /
63 |
46.9% /
53.8% |
48.3% /
50.8% |
36.1% /
28.0% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
27.0% |
21.7 /
29.1 |
| 14 |
CIN |
26 – 21 W |
6.9 |
51.6% /
46.7% |
6.5% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.0 |
48.0% /
43.8% |
20.0% /
21.9% |
3.4 /
4.5 |
56 /
62 |
52.4% /
47.9% |
50.0% /
45.2% |
31.6% /
36.6% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
51.6% |
27.3 /
34.7 |
| 15 |
@KC |
29 – 28 W |
-8.7 |
48.8% /
47.2% |
11.6% /
5.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.5 |
58.3% /
70.6% |
16.7% /
23.5% |
5.0 /
3.5 |
67 /
53 |
50.0% /
53.5% |
52.2% /
54.7% |
46.4% /
29.6% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.8% /
32.1% |
23.0 /
28.3 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Los Angeles Chargers