Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs Baltimore

• Kansas City’s offense averaged at least 28 points per game in every season Patrick Mahomes had been the starter up until last season’s 21.8 points per game.
• So much of perception can change in the postseason. Remember, Kansas City’s offense rated just 8th in the market behind the Eagles heading into the playoffs.
• In hindsight, it’s wild the Chiefs went into last season with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Justin Watson leading the team in wide receiver routes for the first month of the season.
• Rookie WR Rashee Rice did end up coming onto the scene, doubled his target share from week 12 onwards, and ultimately finished 10th among all wide receivers in yards per route run.
• Chiefs GM Brett Veach is going to make sure they’re not bare at receiver again, drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round and signing Marquise Brown, who suffered a collarbone injury on August 11th and should be back sometime later in September.
• Kansas City also brought in WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, who averaged 9.2 yards per target for this team in 2022.
• Travis Kelce had a 60% success rate last year (4th) but is heading into his age 35 season and I could see his targets dip below 100 for the first time in a decade.
• Kansas City’s interior offensive line was at fault for the 2nd-lowest percentage of pressures in the NFL last year thanks to C Creed Humphrey (now highest-paid center in NFL) and All-Pro LG Joe Thuney.
• The Chiefs tackles were shaky though, particularly LT Donovan Smith, who graded 10th-worst in pass block grade by PFF on true sets. Kansas City is hoping second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia will be an upgrade there.
• The Chiefs offense should be back into the top 3 in scoring this year with the improved receiving corps.
• I’m not as optimistic about a Kansas City defense that conceded a league-low 43.8 yards per game to opposing WR1’s but lost All-Pro CB L’Jarius Sneed.
• Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a good history coaching young cornerbacks, but it just seems impossible to me guys like Joshua Williams, Chamarri Conner, and Nazeeh Johnson are going to be able to come close to Sneed’s production from last season.
• Kansas City’s defense led the NFL with two-high safety coverages on 63% of snaps but starting S Mike Edwards is now gone.
• The Chiefs’ defensive line is led by All-Pro DT Chris Jones, who had 75 pressures (2nd), and edge defender George Karlaftis, who ranked 16th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• However, Kansas City’s pass rush took a hit in the AFC Title vs Baltimore with Charles Omenihu’s torn ACL. Omenihu had a 12.2% pressure rate and will not be back until November.
• The Ravens lost three starters on the offensive line and the pass blocking is going to get worse swapping Kevin Zeitler for Daniel Faalele, Jon Simpson for Andrew Vorhees, and Morgan Moses for Patrick Mekari.
• Lamar Jackson is not great when teams are able to pressure him quickly. Jackson ranked 18th in yards per attempt on throws under 2.5 seconds compared to 2nd in yards per attempt on throws over 2.5 seconds.
• The Ravens signed Derrick Henry and I don’t think the offensive line is going to take as much of a hit in run blocking as the three new guys weigh over 1000 pounds.
• We could see Baltimore’s pass rate notably shift with the use of more heavy personnel, which could set up the passing game as well. The Ravens were 0.27 EPA per dropback better with FB Patrick Richard on the field last year.
• Baltimore’s defense lost three starters in Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen, Geno Stone, and but perhaps more impactful is that last season’s defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is now the head coach in Seattle.
• I’m not too worried about the losses of Queen and Stone. We saw Queen struggle the first 2.5 years of his career before the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith. Baltimore signed Eddie Jackson to replace Stone at safety and our metrics don’t have the players too far off from a talent standpoint.
• Baltimore brings back cornerbacks Brandon Stephens and Arthur Maulet. CB Marlon Humphrey will likely be healthier, and they used the first round draft pick on CB Nate Wiggins. The Ravens will likely get better play from the cornerbacks this season.
• Baltimore’s pass rush is really going to suffer with the losses of Clowney and MacDonald. Baltimore’s defense was 7th in pressure rate in large part to Macdonald’s understanding of how to deploy timely simulated pressures. I’m not insinuating the Ravens will stop using that tactic but they will almost certainly be less effective under first time defensive coordinator Zach Orr.
• Jadeveon Clowney, Kyle Van Noy, Odafe Oweh made a really effective rotation at edge, combining for a 16% pressure rate last year, but all Baltimore’s other edges had just a 5% pressure rate. Clowney being gone cuts into that depth and Van Noy is going into his age 33 season so he is unlikely to get nearly 500 snaps again.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.1 with a predicted total of 47.6 points. However, it should be noted that Baltimore is 27-5-2 ATS when favored by less than 4 points or getting points with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, including 11-0 ATS recently (3-1 ATS vs Mahomes in that spread range). Then again, Patrick Mahomes is 24-9-1 ATS from -3 to dog (although 8-7-1 at -2.5 or -3).